All about the next game: St. Pauli at home | OneFootball

Against St. Pau­li, VfB Stutt­gart aims to crown their suc­cessful 2024 calen­dar year with a vic­to­ry. The reig­ning Second Divi­si­on cham­pi­ons arri­ve with a strong defen­se and a lack­lus­ter offen­se.

2024 had many highs and lows for VfB. The highs were almost always ath­le­tic, while the lows were of a club and sports-poli­ti­cal natu­re. While we cele­bra­ted a 5–2 win over Leip­zig on the pitch, pro­tests against the DFL took place off it. While Frankfurt’s SGE was dis­mant­led by Deniz Undav in 37 minu­tes, fans pro­tes­ted against Claus Vogt. This year will undoub­ted­ly remain spe­cial in memo­ry. But befo­re we can cele­bra­te Christ­mas and New Year’s Eve, we first have to face St. Pau­li.

The pro­mo­ted team from Ham­burg has more or less found their rhythm in recent weeks. Sin­ce Match­day 11, they’ve been con­sis­t­ent­ly sit­ting in 15th place, the last non-rele­ga­ti­on spot. Inci­den­tal­ly, the Kiez­ki­ckers’ coach is an old acquain­tance: Alex­an­der Bles­sin was born in Bad Cannstatt and wore the jer­sey with the Brust­ring nine times bet­ween 1997 and 1999. Under his lea­der­ship, St. Pau­li boasts one of the best defen­ses and one of the wea­k­est offen­ses in the league. Essen­ti­al­ly, the oppo­si­te of VfB.

That’s not to say our defen­se is the wea­k­est in the Bun­des­li­ga or any­thing, but the regu­lar slip-ups and wob­bles are con­cer­ning. Espe­ci­al­ly sin­ce Nübel didn’t look good during Heidenheim’s goal eit­her. Howe­ver, I also want to hold the rest of the team accoun­ta­ble. If it’s not Nübel, we make care­less errors in build-up play, like the ones against Hof­fen­heim or Millot’s mista­ke last Sun­day.

I hope we can iron out the­se mista­kes over the win­ter, and that Nübel regains the con­fi­dence he had last sea­son. At the same time, it must be said that things are loo­king much bet­ter offen­si­ve­ly. Sin­ce the loss in Bel­gra­de, VfB hasn’t lost a game. In four of the last five matches, we secu­red all three points and scored at least three goals in each. Gran­ted, the oppon­ents weren’t the crè­me de la crè­me, but Hei­den­heim, Bern, and Uni­on are far from pusho­vers.

One reason for this offen­si­ve resur­gence is Nick Wol­te­ma­de. In the last three com­pe­ti­ti­ve matches he play­ed, he scored four goals. Not only is he gre­at at finis­hing, but he’s also very skil­led with the ball and shi­nes as a play­maker. 2025 could be his brea­kout year.

Personnel Situation

Joi­ning the long-term absen­tees are Ata­kan Kara­zor (ill­ness) and Jus­tin Diehl (mus­cle inju­ry). While the Tur­ki­sh inter­na­tio­nal gets a well-deser­ved break, it’s unfort­u­na­te for Jus­tin Diehl. It felt like he was slow­ly hit­ting his stri­de. Howe­ver, the for­mer Colo­gne play­er should be fit again for the start of the new year.

Possible Starting Lineup

Kei­tel gets reward­ed for his deve­lo­p­ment and comes in for Kara­zor. I’d be exci­ted to see Al-Dak­hil start, but he’s likely lack­ing fit­ness. Other­wi­se, ever­y­thing stays the same.

Statistics

VfB Stutt­gart will finish the year with eit­her 62, 63, or 65 points. With a win, VfB would com­ple­te their best calen­dar year sin­ce 2003. A loss would mean matching 2010’s total, though we play­ed one more game back then.

FCSP is a wel­co­me oppo­nent for VfB Stutt­gart. In 16 Bun­des­li­ga encoun­ters, VfB has secu­red 10 wins, drawn 4 times, and lost only twice. At home in the Neckar­sta­di­on, St. Pau­li has never won. Whe­ther Bun­des­li­ga, 2. Bun­des­li­ga, or DFB-Pokal, VfB has won every home game against them except for one.

As men­tio­ned abo­ve, St. Pau­li is very weak offen­si­ve­ly. With 14 xG, they are last in the table. Howe­ver, they shouldn’t be unde­re­sti­ma­ted, as they mana­ged to beat Frei­burg, the fifth-pla­ced team, 0–3 away and han­ded Frei­burg their only home loss. St. Pau­li runs a lot and aver­a­ges very litt­le pos­ses­si­on, typi­cal traits for a pro­mo­ted team.

Conclusion

To clo­se out the year, a mana­geable oppo­nent awaits. I’m not expec­ting a high-qua­li­ty match but rather a game of pati­ence against a defen­si­ve­ly strong team. My pre­dic­tion is a nar­row but well-deser­ved 1–0 home win!

Pic­tu­re: © Tho­mas Niedermueller/Bongarts/Getty Images