Exeter v Nottingham Forest: Set-piece threat Boly gets the nod at 7/1 | OneFootball

English FA Cup

Willy Boly: Likely to be sought out on Forest set pieces

Set pieces are a strength for Nottingham Forest and a weaknees for Exeter. Our Andy Schooler is betting accordingly in Tuesday's FA Cup TV game...

Exeter v Nottingham ForestTuesday 11 February, 20:00Live on ITV1

With Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool all out of the FA Cup before the last-16 stage, Nottingham Forest fans may well be fancing a trip to Wembley in May.

However, such is modern-day football that it's hard to imagine it's even on manager Nuno Espirito Santo's radar.

To be fair, whatever your view on managers' disdain for the competition, that's understandable. Incredibly, Forest sit third in the Premier League table heading into this game and their chance of securing Champions League football is undoubtedly better than winning the FA Cup.

BTTS angle worth considering

So, while Forest will be wary of Exeter repeating Plymouth's Sunday heroics just down the A38, changes will still be made, especially given the date of this fixture - the last of the fourth-round ties comes just four days before a key league game at Fulham.

Given that, it's hard to be enthused on any level about the top-flight side's odds of 1.31 to win in 90 minutes.

Exeter are out at 10.5 but their task looks a big one given their struggles in League One this season - they are down in 18th, just six points above the drop zone.

The Grecians have failed to win any of their last eight in the league, losing six, with recent results of particular concern - Gary Caldwell's side have conceded 13 goals in their last three outings.

What is also notable about their results, however, is they have been able to score - they've done so in 12 of their last 13. Throw in the expected Forest back-line changes and odds of 2.82 about Forest to win and both teams to score are certainly worth considering.

The visitors banged in seven against Brighton last time out and what was encouraging for them was that when they made changes in the second half, there was no let-up, with those coming on clearly out to make an impression and get in on the act.

Some of those will now get their chance to shine from the get-go and a much-changed Forest were certainly good enough to see off Championship side Luton (2-0) in the last round.

What puts me off backing this bet is the fact that Exeter's top scorer Millenic Alli was a big reason behind that recent run of goalscoring. However, having netted seven times in his last nine games, he was sold to Luton on deadline day.

Boly to offer set-piece threat

Instead, I'll focus on the player markets, starting with Willy Boly to score at any time.

The centre-back starting in that third-round win and was one of those to come on against Brighton.

With Murillo taking a knock last weekend, Boly looks highly likely to start this one and if he does, he could well be Forest's main target on set-plays.

Only Arsenal and Crystal Palace have scored more goals from set pieces in this season's Premier League, only Palace have had more shots from such situations, while Nuno's men are third in the set-piece expected-goals (SPxG) standings.

While set-plays are clearly a Forest strength, they are also an Exeter weakness. The Devon side have conceded 16 such goals this season with only Lincoln having let in more in League One.

Boly, who scored twice in an injury-hit 2023/24 campaign, looks worth a try at 7/1.

Jota Silva leads Forest for fouls

Secondly, back Jota Silva to commit 2+ fouls at 9/5.

The Portuguese is Forest top fouler on the fouls-per-90-minutes metric, averaging 2.65.

Starts have been rare but when he has got the nod, Silva has landed the 2+ fouls bet in four of six.

Ref Andrew Kitchen is a Championship regular and in that division he's one of the best for fouls per game, averaging 24.65 - the second highest figure of those officials who have taken charge of at least 10 games. For the record, the league average is 22.89.

Some may be concerned that Forest, as the top-flight side, won't be out of possession long enough for Silva to make his challenges, but it should be remembered this is a team which likes to play on the break, one which had only 45% of possession in the aforementioned Luton game.

All things considered, 9/5 is too big and worth backing.

Opta fact

Exeter have progressed from just one of their last 18 FA Cup ties against top-flight opponents, eliminating Leicester in the 1980/81 fourth round. Their most recent such match was against West Bromwich Albion in January 2018, a 2-0 home defeat.

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Recommended bets

1pt Willy Boly anytime scorer in Exeter v Nottingham Forest @ 7/11pt Jota Silva to commit 2+ fouls @ 9/5

Andy Schooler's P/L 2024/25

Staked: 18.5pts Returned: 16.59pts P/L: -1.91pts

2023/24: +4.54pts