Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Newcastle 2 Chelsea 0 | OneFootball

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the five Premier League matches from Sunday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Newcastle United 1.67 v Chelsea 0.65 (2-0)

Man U 2.31 v West Ham 2.16 (0-2)

Forest 1.77 v Leicester 1.23 (2-2)

Spurs 0.81 v Palace 3.99 (0-2)

Liverpool 2.75 v Arsenal 2.19 (2-2)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Palace with by far the biggest Expected Goals stat and biggest gap to their opponent, Spurs only 0.81 Expected Goals stat compared to 3.99 for the visitors. Sounds like a woeful Spurs lucky to lose only 2-0 at home.

Three of the other four matches on Sunday saw far closer Expected Goals stats with very little in it, compared to their opponents.

Liverpool (2.75) and Arsenal (2.19) drawing 2-2 and the same scoreline for Forest (1.77) at home to Leicester (1.23).

Two of the teams fighting for fourth bottom were very close on Expected Goals stats, Man U (2.31) only very marginally higher than West Ham (2.16), the Hammers though more clinical with their finishing to rise from fourth bottom in the table and above Man U.

The other match of the five saw easily the biggest difference in Expected Goals stats, apart from that Spurs v Palace match.

Newcastle United (1.67) with an Expected Goals stat some two and a half times higher than Chelsea (0.65).

This further emphasises what we watched with our own eyes. Newcastle United most dominant and creating chances, good situations, in the first half, when they were mostly up against 11 men. The second half did see Chelsea dominate the possession but in truth they created very little. Two half chances were well saved by Nick Pope but you would have been surprised if he’d let either of them in.

Newcastle 2 Chelsea 0 – Sunday 11 May 12pm

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Tonali 2, Bruno 90

Chelsea:

Jackson red card 35

Possession was Newcastle 45% Chelsea 55%

Total shots were Newcastle 15 Chelsea 10

Shots on target were Newcastle 6 Chelsea 3

Corners were Newcastle 2 Chelsea 8

Touches in the box Newcastle 39 Chelsea 22

Newcastle United team v Chelsea:

Pope, Botman (Miley 55), Schar, Burn, Livramento, Gordon (Krafth 65), Tonali, Bruno (Longstaff 94), Barnes, Isak (Wilson 94), Murphy

Subs:

Dubravka, Lascelles, Osula, Neave, Ruddy

(Newcastle 2 Chelsea 0 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after Chelsea 2-0…Read HERE)