How much worse are Arsenal without Saliba? Worrying stats ahead of Liverpool clash | OneFootball

For many observers, there’s no denying that William Saliba is Arsenal‘s most influential player, despite the form of Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. So when he saw red against Bournemouth, knowing what was to come, you can understand supporters’ trepidation.

This weekend, Premier League leaders Liverpool, who are in scintillating form under new head coach Arne Slot, will visit the Emirates. The Gunners will be without their French centre-back, whose absence was cited as the central reason behind Mikel Arteta’s team collapse during the 2022/23 title run-in.

A back injury sustained at the wrong time was a costly setback for Arsenal, as they lost their lead in the Premier League to eventual champions Manchester City. During his absence, the Londoners played 11 games, winning five, including a victory against Wolves on the final day, when the championship had already been decided. However, they crucially squandered two-goal leads in consecutive road matches against Liverpool and West Ham while only keeping two clean sheets in that run, conceding at least twice in five games, while their attacking performance remained steady.

It’s fair to break down those 11 games further: six at home and five on the road. Two of those away games were arguably Arsenal’s toughest without him: the aforementioned Liverpool showdown and Manchester City, which saw them lose 4-1 and effectively dashed their dreams of ending a 19-year championship drought. At home without Saliba, the record is four wins, one draw, and one loss, with 19 goals scored, nine conceded, and one clean sheet.

“When he plays, we concede few goals, when he doesn’t play, the number increases,” Gabriel Jesus said. “When I got injured, Eddie (Nketiah) replaced me very well. Then we signed Leo (Trossard). We kept the pace. But when Saliba got injured, it was complicated. The other defenders are good, but we were playing in a certain way. Look at the stats we concede a lot less with him.”

Before his red card against Bournemouth, he played every minute in the Premier League for the Gunners since the start of last season. Jesus is right: he’s missed just 11 Premier League matches, with Arsenal having a 74% win rate and conceding on average 0.8 goals per game with him in the team compared to a 45% win rate and 1.6 goals conceded per game without him.

But it’s more than just the overall result that Arsenal will miss in Saliba’s absence. Even though capturing the value of central defenders in statistics can be difficult, there are two critical metrics in which Saliba excels. He boasts the best success rate for tackles on dribblers in the Premier League this season, at 90%.

This means players are almost always stopped when they try to run past Saliba. His one-on-one defending isn’t just exceptional; it’s the best in England’s top division. Furthermore, he’s displayed remarkable tenacity by attempting 21 tackles and completing 12, a feat unmatched by any other Arsenal player. In contrast, his usual partner-in-crime, Gabriel Magalhaes, has only attempted six tackles.

Saliba has also recovered 14 loose balls for his team this season. However, during the 2023/24 campaign, he registered 213 ball recoveries, more than any other Premier League centre-back and eighth among all players.

One possible reason for the reduction in Saliba’s numbers this season could be Arsenal’s recent sending-offs, which have forced the team to defend deeper, leading to a compressed pitch and fewer loose balls. Their possession average has dropped from 58.2% last season to 49.1% this season.

When we combine his recovery stats from last season with his tackling success in this one, we see the profile of an elegant yet formidable centre-back adept at winning possession and one-on-one challenges. These attributes are essential for Arsenal, especially when facing Liverpool’s direct runners.

It will be challenging to replace Saliba, as Arteta never had to face this dilemma last season, as he was always present. Making the situation even more problematic is the fact that Riccardo Calafiori, who can slot in but has nominally played at left-back this season following his switch from Bologna this summer, is a doubt after sustaining a knock against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Champions League this week.

Rob Holding predominantly played as the centre-back alongside Gabriel (including six of the games they failed to win) when Saliba last missed a Premier League game for Arsenal. However, it’s fair to say that Arteta now has better options. There appear to be two solutions: either Jakub Kiwior will be a like-for-like replacement, or if Jurrien Timber is fit to return from injury, he will come into the side, and Ben White will shuffle across.

White might be the better choice due to his quick recovery pace, which could potentially counter Liverpool’s fast attack. Arne Slot is expected to exploit Arsenal’s weakened backline, possibly by deploying a front line packed with runners. It wouldn’t be surprising if he opts to hand Darwin Nunez a rare start; the much-maligned Uruguayan marksman is known for his chaotic runs that could exploit defensive gaps. Additionally, the return of Luis Diaz to the left could disrupt the opposition’s positioning, creating space for Diogo Jota, a No 9 who excels in finding pockets of space away from the defence.

Although it’s only the ninth gameweek of the Premier League season, this upcoming match already feels like one that Arsenal can’t afford to lose. They are four points behind Liverpool and risk facing back-to-back Premier League losses for the first time since December 31, 2023. In contrast, Liverpool boasts a wealth of available talent across all positions. Arteta, meanwhile, is dealing with injury issues; Saka is unlikely to be fit to play, and the absence of Saliba could prove crucial.

Should the visitors capitalise on this situation and secure all three points, it would mark their second-best start to a Premier League season after nine games, reaching 24 points. The only other instance of them amassing 24 or more points at this stage of a Premier League campaign was in 2019-20, a season in which they clinched the title, something that has alluded Arsenal for over two decades.