Jones Knows Notebook: Could Mikel Merino sub be the start of Arsenal's title winning run? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Mikel Merino scored twice off the bench at Leicester

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - ponders whether Mikel Arteta's call to play Mikel Merino as an emergency striker could be the catalyst for Arsenal hunting down Liverpool in the title race...

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Is now the time to back Arsenal at 4.4 for the Premier League title?

Mikel Arteta bringing on Mikel Merino for Raheem Sterling might go down in Premier League history as one the great substitutions.

The critics were ready to slam Arsenal as they plodded around lacking spark and guile at Leicester. It looked like they didn't have enough following the injury to Kai Havertz. The knives were out. Should have signed a forward, eh? Give Liverpool the trophy now.

But Sterling departed and Merino sprang from the bench. The moment that could just change everything in terms of the trajectory of their season.

And for people like me who are on Arsenal to win the Premier League, it has given us genuine hope that our betting tickets still have a chance of cashing. After Liverpool's rather panicky second half at Anfield on Sunday against Wolves and a fixture that list sees them play Aston Villa, Man City and Newcastle next, the Gunners have legitimate claims of chipping away at the seven-point gap.

The Betfair Exchange has them at 4.4 for the Premier League title and Liverpool at 1.31. I'd be of the strong view that those prices will be closer together come the next international break in March. I wouldn't put anyone off investing in Arsenal with a view of trading out at those prices.

Merino might be Arsenal's top goalscorer by then too. He actually only needs another five to join Havertz.

Merino has better goalscoring instincts than Havertz

His introduction on Saturday breathed life into Arsenal as Leandro Trossard moved to his more natural position out wide and then Merino stepped up in a role where his timing and ruthless touch in front of goal made him look like he'd been playing centre forward since he was in nappies.

Merino is regarded as a goalscoring midfielder and was a key reason why Arteta pushed for him in the summer.

Arteta said: "Mikel has never played as a nine. But he has that timing, he can smell danger, anticipate danger. And then he can execute it."

Edging past a team second bottom in the Premier League with Wout Faes as their most dominant defender isn't the sign of champions but this was a sign that the noise created surrounding Havertz's injury at Arsenal has been overblown.

The with and without stats paint a positive picture on the Havertz debate. In games across all competitions without Havertz, Arsenal have lost just once in 18 matches, with a win ratio of 79 per cent.

With him, that ratio drops to 62 per cent.

These types of numbers aren't an exact science of course but it proves Arsenal can still function just fine without his influence. In fact, the thought that ran through my mind as Merino tucked away his second goal was whether Havertz would have actually missed both chances Merino tucked away.

Since the start of December no player in the Premier League has missed as many "big chances" - as defined by Opta - than Havertz (11).

It's very early days but perhaps Arsenal now have a more clinical finisher leading their line - not only a clinical finisher but a confident one.

That's quite a lethal combination, especially when without the ball Arsenal are still one of the most secure teams in Europe. Leicester could only muster an expected goals figure of 0.22. There was little sweat once Arsenal got their noses in front.

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Back Arsenal to win Premier League @ 4.4