Leicester v Nottingham Forest: Back 13/5 Bet Builder on Friday Night Football | OneFootball

English Premier League

Leicester boss Steve Cooper

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - settles in for some Friday night under goals action as he spots a 13/5 shot to attack when Leicester host Nottingham Forest...

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Leicester v Nottingham ForestFriday 25 October, 20:00Live on Sky Sports

The Steve Cooper derby.

OK, it's not exactly as snappy as El Clasico but there is needle between Leicester and Nottingham Forest and the appointment of Cooper for the Foxes does add extra spice to this East Midlands rivalry.

There is only one place to start when it comes to Nottingham Forest matches and that's the under goals line.

Nuno Espirito Santo is building a ruthlessly organised team that don't give much away - they have only conceded six Premier League goals this season. Only Liverpool have conceded fewer (3).

But they don't offer a great threat in attack themselves and that has led to seven of their eight Premier League matches falling under the 2.5 goals line. The market is supporting another low scoring encounter with 4/5 on offer for another game where two or fewer goals are scored.

That average goal line is in keeping with the last 20 Premier League games played on a Friday night where exactly 50 goals have been scored working out at 2.5 goals per game.

But interestingly, all five of last seasons Friday Night Footballs went under 2.5 goals - a surprising feat considering the average goals per game were at record levels for the season.

There is enough evidence here to support the unders.

Yates can profit from Leicester's set piece woes

Leicester's issues from set pieces also need to be highlighted for those getting involved in the game.

Cooper's team have shipped 5.12 worth of expected goals from set pieces but managed to only concede one goal from such scenarios. That's a huge overperformance that should correct itself over the next sample size of games.

That gap between actual goals and expected goals may start to narrow in this one as Forest boast the fifth highest output from set pieces when it comes to expected goals and shots this season.

The tricky bit when it comes to finding winners from trying to exploit a set piece angle is who and what to back. There are options aplenty.

Forest defender Murillo has had eight shots via a set piece situation under Nuno but has yet to score. Could this be his time? He's a tempting 55/1 to score first.

But I'm going to play a price much shorter in the market and keep it simple by backing Ryan Yates to register two or more shots at 10/11. The beauty of this bet is that Yates carries a shots threat from attacking set pieces and from open play where he does love a speculative strike from distance.

He's landed for backers of his two or more shots line in seven of his last 10 starts for Forest, racking up 25 shots in total. This included four efforts in the 1-0 win over Crystal Palace on Monday Night Football where he hit the post with a headed effort following a corner.

13/5 shot to attack through the Bet Builder.

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Back Under 2.5 goals & Ryan Yates to have 2+ shots @ 13/5