Liverpool’s Champions League Test Against PSG Analysed | OneFootball

Liverpool’s Champions League Challenge: Breaking Down PSG’s Strengths and Weaknesses

As Liverpool prepare for a high-stakes Champions League clash with PSG, the latest episode of Stat Me Up on Anfield Index provided a deep statistical dive into the threats posed by the Parisian giants. Hosted by Dave Davis and featuring analysis from Phil Barter, the discussion laid bare PSG’s strengths, vulnerabilities, and how Arne Slot’s Liverpool might exploit them.

PSG’s Dominance in Ligue 1 Versus Their Champions League Reality

Despite the perennial argument around Ligue 1’s overall quality, PSG remain an attacking juggernaut. “They have scored 62 goals, which is 12 more than anyone else, and conceded seven less than anyone else,” Davis noted. However, their European campaign tells a different story. PSG finished their group in 15th place despite topping their domestic league with ease.

Barter added statistical context: “Understat has them at 70 expected goals, meaning they are actually underperforming by eight goals in the league.” In contrast, their defence has slightly overperformed, conceding three goals fewer than expected.

The disparity between PSG’s Ligue 1 dominance and their struggle against elite European competition is a recurring theme. “This is what successive PSG managers have said,” Barter continued. “If you want to win the European Cup with PSG, it’s really difficult because their day-to-day games are just not at the right level.”

Key PSG Players Liverpool Must Contain

PSG’s attack is spearheaded by a range of dangerous forwards, but one of their biggest weapons is Bradley Barcola, who has delivered 16 goals and 11 assists this season. “We know how fast he is,” Davis warned. Another key threat is Kavicha Kvaratskhelia, who joined PSG from Napoli. “Off the ball, he’s not going to give you anything,” Barter admitted, but highlighted his 88th percentile in shot-creating actions and nearly four shots per game.

Midfield talent Warren Zaïre-Emery was also discussed as a potential game-changer. “He’s exceptional on the ball,” Barter said. “His progressive passing is in the 83rd percentile, he carries the ball well, and he has a passing accuracy of 90%.” However, he also acknowledged that if Liverpool overload PSG’s midfield, the teenager and his partner “might get absolutely monstered.”

Liverpool’s Tactical Dilemma: Go All-Out or Play it Safe?

A key talking point was Arne Slot’s tactical approach. Davis posed the question: “By the nature of PSG being high XG creating but also high XG conceding, do you think we will trade punch for punch, or could you see the 4-2-4 with all four midfielders in it?”

Barter was sceptical about an ultra-defensive setup: “I think it’s unlikely he plays four midfielders because ultimately, he’s got to win the game at the weekend as well.” Instead, he suggested Liverpool could dominate midfield with a “box” setup, which would provide stability without sacrificing attacking intent. “Slot would fancy this game,” he said. “I think he could look at PSG’s system and say, ‘I can cause more instability to them than they can to us.’”

There was also an emphasis on Liverpool’s pressing game, which could disrupt PSG’s midfield pivots. “If we limit the two pivots from progressing the ball, it goes a long way to us winning the game,” Barter stated.

What It All Means for Liverpool’s Chances

Liverpool’s approach will likely hinge on how they balance their pressing intensity with defensive solidity. “We have to make sure we take our chances,” Barter noted, suggesting that Liverpool’s ability to capitalise on PSG’s defensive openness will be key.

Ultimately, this game represents a clash between a team that dominates its domestic league but struggles in Europe and a team used to high-intensity football in the Premier League. The historical trend suggests that when PSG face truly elite opponents, their weaknesses are exposed. “When they played Bayern Munich, they only created 0.8 XG and had just 11 shots, compared to Bayern’s 18 shots and 2.4 XG,” Barter pointed out.

The question now is whether Liverpool can impose their tempo, dominate transitions, and expose PSG’s soft underbelly. As Barter concluded: “If we create 2.4 XG, like Bayern did, we could definitely go and do that.”

The answer will come soon enough. Wednesday night in Paris awaits.