Manchester United v Real Sociedad: Back Zubimendi and Fernandes to be carded in 12/1 double | OneFootball

UEFA Europa League

One of the favourites will be going home at Old Trafford

In a game that looks likely to be decided on fine margins, Jamie Kemp looks to the midfield battle between Man Utd and Real Sociedad for a 12/1 cards double...

Man United v Real Sociedad - Extra time could beckon at Old Trafford

Thursday, 20:00

Thursday's fixture at Old Trafford might well be the biggest game of the season for both Manchester United and Real Sociedad. For both sides, it's the last chance for them to stay alive in a competition that would salvage an otherwise mediocre campaign, provided they could go on and win it. Both should still (just about) be considered candidates to do so.

Though much is made of Manchester United's iffy form and failure to launch under Ruben Amorim, the visitors now come into this game in a pretty fragile state themselves. After defeat to Sevilla at the weekend, their La Liga campaign looks almost guaranteed to underwhelm, and fall well short of their pre-season top six expectations.

La Real's performance in the first leg of this tie was markedly poor, too. Were it not for Bruno Fernandes's handball just after the hour mark, which finally snapped them into some action, they were on track for a pretty feeble performance. Up until that 70th minute penalty, their xG stood at just 0.18 (to 1.1 for the visitors) and they'd created almost nothing in open play.

Though I expected Imanol Alguacil's side would be good enough to emerge from this tie when all was said and done, my faith in that has weakened in the last week. Their performances in the first leg of this tie and against Sevilla were both well below their best and most competitive level, and Imanol Alguacil made it pretty clear on Sunday evening that his squad are really starting to feel the physical strain of their schedule too.

The good news for the visitors is that Martin Zubimendi should be fit enough to start here, after missing the first leg. That should at least help La Real to keep the tie fought on close margins and protect their defence more. Whether it'll be enough to help them through is another matter, but they should at least be in a better condition to grind through the second leg for as long as they can. Independent of their form, they'll be prepared for a long night at Old Trafford.

Overall, I'll opt for the game to be level after an hour at 11/8. The last four games between these sides - all since 2021 - have seen just four goals scored in total (two each), and the stakes on this game ought to make it even more cagey. What's more, neither of these sides are known for being quick out of the gates. Were it not for Bruno Fernandes's free kick on the stroke of half time on Sunday (v Arsenal), that would have been 15 straight Premier League games without leading at the break.

Midfield battle should produce fouls/cards

The expected return of Martin Zubimendi - quite arguably Real Sociedad's best player - should help to make this a more competitive midfield battle than we saw last week.

Certainly, he would be a big addition in terms of defensive security and adding nous in the middle of the pitch - not to mention, adding tactical fouls where required. If the home side do find their rhythm and bring the Old Trafford crowd into the game, Zubimendi is going to be plenty busy in protecting his defence and cutting the play short when needed. He's been booked three times in seven outings in the Europa League this term, including in two of his last three.

Real Sociedad are known for their tactical fouls too. Across all competitions, they lead all teams in Europe's big five leagues for fouls conceded this season (593) - and that's while having more of the ball than many teams across those competitions. Particularly in a big European away game, their players will be ready to stop the game before dangerous attacks get into full flow.

Along with a card for Zubimendi, I'll add in one for the home side's talisman, Bruno Fernandes. The Portuguese has been a shining light in difficult times for Manchester United this term, providing important goals and assists, as well as competing on the defensive side (as seen in his celebrations after tackles against Arsenal at the weekend).

Bruno will be the last player Ruben Amorim would consider substituting in a game like this, and if the game goes long into the night, the chances of him getting booked - even if it's out of passion with his team leading - should be fairly decent. While he's got three red cards to his name this term, he was one of only two players booked in the first leg of this tie, along with Igor Zubeldia.

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