Nottingham Forest v Manchester City: Forest odds-against to avoid defeat | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nottingham Forest remain tough to beat at the City Ground - even for Man City

Nottingham Forest face Manchester City on Saturday in a crunch clash for both sides in their quest for a top-four Premier League finish. Betfair writer Mark O'Haire is backing the Tricky Trees to avoid defeat at the City Ground.

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Nottingham Forest v Manchester CitySaturday March 8, 12:30Live on TNT Sport

Forest enjoying memorable campaign

Nottingham Forest booked their place in the FA Cup quarter-finals after a dramatic penalty shootout success over Ipswich on Monday night. Goalkeeper Matz Sels was the hero, saving the decisive spot-kick as the Tricky Trees progressed 5-4 on penalties after the two teams played out a largely uneventful 1-1 draw at the City Ground after extra-time.

The Reds are chasing a first trophy since their 1959 FA Cup triumph, though attention now turns back towards the Premier League and securing Champions League qualification. Nuno Espirito Santo's third-placed side face Manchester City this weekend, with the reigning champions just a point behind in fourth, whilst a cluster of clubs are chasing both of them.

Reflecting on their current position, Nuno said: "It is a huge moment for us as a club. It's important for the club to give it a good go. Now we have to focus on the Premier League, but the FA Cup is always going to be on our mind. Let's go game by game. Nothing changes in the way we have to approach games. Now we have to focus on (Manchester) City."

Man City survive early scare

Manchester City came from behind to secure their spot in the last-eight of the FA Cup by overcoming Championship strugglers Plymouth 3-1 at The Etihad. Youngers Nico O'Reilly scored twice to spare his illustrious team-mates' blushes, heading home Kevin de Bruyne's free-kick before nodding home Phil Foden's corner to turn the tide in City's favour.

The Citizens confirmed progress in the final minute when Kevin De Bruyne turned home Erling Haaland's low cross from four yards and keeps Pep Guardiola's side in the hunt for a third FA Cup trophy. However, it wasn't all good news for City as  Nathan Ake was withdrawn at half-time and has since had surgery on a fractured foot.

With John Stones and Manuel Akanji already on the sidelines, Guardiola's group are down to the bare bones with Ruben Dias, Victor Reis and Abdukodir Khusanov the only available centre-backs. Guardiola said, "I'm so grateful for Khusanov and Reis, without them we don't have any chance to qualify for the Champions League next season or fight for FA Cup."

Citizens can't be trusted at odds-on

Nottingham Forest are winless in each of their last nine league games against Manchester City (W0-D2-L7), a run that dates back to December 1997. The Tricky Trees have lost their last three Premier League fixtures against the Citizens by an aggregate 7-0, though the Reds have never previously suffered four successive defeats to City in top-flight football.

Since smashing Brighton 7-0 here at the City Ground, Nottm Forest 4.10 are winless in three EPL outings (W0-D1-L2). Nevertheless, the Tricky Trees held Arsenal at home in that sample with Nuno Espirito Santo's side remaining tough to beat in front of their own supporters (W7-D4-L2) -Liverpool were also held here as recently as January.

Only Liverpool and Arsenal have won more points than Man City 1.95 in the Premier League this calendar year with the Citizens posting W5-D1-L2 and scoring 21 goals. However, Pep Guardiola's posse remain difficult to trust on their travels, going W1-D3-L5 away at teams in 12th and above in the EPL, shipping multiple goals on seven occasions.

Man City have certainly shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, yet the visitors' lack of available defensive bodies and their rotten away record makes the Citizens unappealing odds-on favourites at the City Ground. City boast just a 51% Expected Goals (xG) ratio on the road in the Premier League and have only won the xG battle in six of their 14 away days.

With that in-mind, I'm happy to support Nottingham Forest +0.50 in the Asian Handicap market at 2.03. We'll be paid-out should the Reds avoid defeat, a feat achieved in 20 of their 27 top-flight tussles this term, including 11 of their 13 City Ground showdowns. Meanwhile, 11 of their 13 visitors have been restricted to a maximum of one goal here.

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Back Nottingham Forest +0.50 Asian Handicap @ 2.03