Opta Supercomputer predicts outcome of Arsenal v Newcastle United | OneFootball

The Opta Supercomputer prediction model has been looking at the Arsenal v Newcastle match.

That game a 4.30pm kick-off at the Emirates.

A draw or better will guarantee Arsenal a Champions League place.

Whilst a win would ensure the Gunners end the season as runners-up to Liverpool.

A victory for Newcastle United would ensure a Champions League place, it would also guarantee United in second place when we get to the final day of the season and massive favourites to stay there with a home game against Everton next Sunday.

Opta Supercomputer analysis of Arsenal v Newcastle United – 18 May 2025:

‘Arsenal are ranked as the favourites by the Opta supercomputer, given a 47.7% win probability.

Following their 1-0 victory at St James’ Park in November, Newcastle United are looking to complete their first league double over Arsenal since 1994-95.

Newcastle have won all three games against Arsenal this season, 1-0 in the Premier League and 2-0 in both legs of the EFL Cup semi-final.

Newcastle have not lost their final away league game in any of the last six seasons (W4 D2) since a 1-0 loss at Tottenham Hotspur in 2017-18. Four of these games have been away at London sides (W3 D1), beating Brentford 4-2 last term.

Despite their poor recent record against Newcastle, the Gunners are rated as favourites by the Opta supercomputer.

Arsenal came out on top in 47.7% of the model’s data-led simulations, while Newcastle were victors in 27.5%. There is a 24.8% chance of a draw.’

No surprise that Arsenal are made favourites by the Opta prediction model, at home and currently second in the table.

However, the big thing I take from their prediction, is that there is more chance of Newcastle United not losing (52.3%, with a predicted 27.5% chance of winning and 24.8% of drawing) than there is of defeat (47.7%).

The bookies see it very similar as they have Mikel Arteta’s team around even money to be victorious, a toss of the coin as to whether Arsenal win, or Newcastle United get at least a point.