A Look Back at Supercomputer’s Pre-season Championship Predictions & Play-off Contenders’ Form Heading Into Semi-finals | OneFootball

Sheffield United and Bristol City will kick off the Championship play-off semi-finals on Thursday night at Ashton Gate, with Sunderland travelling to Coventry City on Friday night.

But, were either of these teams predicted to make the play-offs, or better, before a ball was kicked this season?

Before the season kicked off, Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations to predict where each of the 24 teams might finish by the campaign’s conclusion.

Here is how the pre-season super computer predictions looked:

(Image via The Analyst)

And this is how the actual table shaped up:

(Image via BBC Sport)

To its credit, the model accurately predicted Leeds United as champions of the Championship, and correctly placed Cardiff City and Plymouth Argyle at the bottom of the table.

However, the play-off race didn’t unfold as the supercomputer had envisioned. It had projected Burnley to finish third, West Brom fourth, Luton Town fifth (who were ultimately relegated), and Norwich City in sixth.

In reality, Burnley achieved automatic promotion, and at one point were going up as the champions on the final day, while West Brom and Norwich failed to contend seriously, finishing midtable. Meanwhile, Middlesbrough, tipped for second, would eventually slip down to tenth.

Several teams that did make the play-offs weren’t expected to. Coventry City, for example, were predicted to end up seventh but managed to climb two places higher. Sheffield United and Bristol City were projected to just miss out on the play-offs, coming in at ninth and tenth respectively. The biggest miscalculation by the supercomputer was Sunderland. They were forecasted to finish 21st but would end up finishing fourth.

Championship Play-off Contenders’ Form Heading Into Semi-finals

SHEFFIELD, ENGLAND – MAY 3: Sheffield United manager Chris Wilder applauds the fans after the Sky Bet Championship match between Sheffield United FC and Blackburn Rovers FC at Bramall Lane on May 3, 2025 in Sheffield, England. (Photo by Ed Sykes/Getty Images)

The Blades head into the semi-finals with seven points from their last five games. Chris Wilder’s side did well to regroup after their disappointing run of three consecutive losses, which ultimately saw them fall from top of the league to third in the same week. And Burnley put the final nail in the coffin on Easter Monday, but United ended the season with a win and a draw whilst managing minutes within the squad.

Sunderland have stumbled their way into the semi-finals, and they have their excellent early season form to thank for punching their ticket to the play-offs. A run of five straight defeats is certainly a cause for concern, but perhaps more worryingly is the fact that the Black Cats have scored just once in their last five matches.

Frank Lampard’s Sky Blues racked up seven points in their final five games of the regular campaign. Alarmingly, the three games that they failed to win were against teams that were involved in the relegation battle, and they conceded five goals in that span against Luton Town, Plymouth Argyle and Hull City.

Bristol City very nearly slipped out of the top six on the final day, and they needed to come from 2-0 down against Paul Heckingbottom’s Preston North End, and equaliser from the Blades against Blackburn Rovers, to confirm their spot in the play-offs.

The Robins accumulated five points in their final five games, but the main talking point should be their now leaky defence; they have now failed to keep a clean sheet in 11 games, and they head into the first leg against Sheffield United after conceding nine goals in three games.