Analysis: How Diogo Jota Completely Changed the Game in Liverpool’s 1-1 Draw at Nottingham Forest | OneFootball

Diogo Jota’s Game-Changing Impact in Liverpool’s Draw at Nottingham Forest

Liverpool’s 1-1 draw against Nottingham Forest left many fans frustrated, but as discussed in Stat Me Up on Anfield Index, Dr Phil Barter and Dave Davis broke down the performance and highlighted the crucial influence of Diogo Jota. As Liverpool continue to evolve under Arne Slot, this match underscored the importance of adaptability, pressing intensity, and, most notably, the impact of substitutes.

Jota the Catalyst for Change

When Jota entered the fray, Liverpool shifted gears. Dr Phil Barter made it clear: “Jota feels the catalyst… absolutely battering them.” The numbers support that assertion—Liverpool managed 23 shots, far exceeding the typical 10 shots that Forest usually allow. However, the difference in attacking intensity before and after Jota’s arrival was stark.

Photo: IMAGO

Dave Davis pointed out the major tactical shift: “Jota comes on and we win the big chances.” Liverpool’s second-half attacking heat map was transformed, with more shots in the penalty box, improved movement in high spaces, and a significantly increased expected goals (xG) tally.

Liverpool’s Tactical Adjustment: More Than Just Possession

Liverpool had control from the outset but lacked penetration. As Dr Barter observed: “First half, yeah, we have more of the ball… we spent most of it in their final third, but we didn’t create enough quality chances.” The underlying issue? The positioning of key players, particularly Luis Díaz.

Dr Barter was explicit in his analysis: “Typically, these two would be in here… but Diaz is a little bit too left, and Dom [Szoboszlai] is over on the right.” That tactical misalignment meant Liverpool struggled to break through Forest’s low block.

Jota’s introduction immediately changed that. His ability to position himself in high-value areas led to multiple big chances. Dr Barter summed it up perfectly: “Jota spent 30% of his time on the pitch in the penalty box versus Díaz’s 13%… that’s almost double.” That kind of presence is exactly what Liverpool had been missing in the first half.

Photo: IMAGO

Arne Slot’s Decision-Making and Liverpool’s Growing Pains

With Jürgen Klopp’s departure in May 2024, Arne Slot is still implementing his ideas at Liverpool. While his tactical adjustments have shown promise, some of his initial selections have raised eyebrows. Dr Barter didn’t hold back: “This is the second league game I personally think he made the wrong selection… he should have played Jota from the start.”

Slot’s approach is clearly designed to improve Liverpool’s attacking efficiency over time, as seen in his efforts to reduce long-range shooting. However, as Dr Barter highlighted: “Shot selection was not of the highest quality in the first half… Slot’s come in and brought that number right down.” The second-half performance reflected a shift towards higher-quality opportunities inside the box, thanks largely to Jota’s positioning.

Photo: IMAGO

Liverpool Were Unlucky—But Forest’s Keeper Was Outstanding

Despite their dominance in the second half, Liverpool were ultimately denied by an outstanding goalkeeping display. Dr Barter made it clear: “You sometimes have to accept that the keeper had an absolute blinding game.” Forest’s shot-stopper produced multiple crucial saves, including a spectacular stop from Mohamed Salah.

Dave Davis echoed the sentiment: “If we’re honest, there’s a real argument to say Sels and Murillo really shone for them… they had the game of their lives.” Liverpool’s xG and post-shot xG stats reinforce that point—on another day, they could have easily won 2-0 or 3-1.

Conclusion: Jota Must Be a Starter

The biggest takeaway from Stat Me Up was simple—Diogo Jota changed the game, and Liverpool must integrate him more effectively. Dr Barter summarised it best: “Jota had a very good game… he outperformed three of the seven key metrics.” His impact was undeniable, and as Liverpool push for major honours under Slot, his ability to operate in high-value areas could be crucial.

Looking ahead, Liverpool will need to refine their squad balance and ensure that game-changing talents like Jota are on the pitch from the start. If there’s one lesson to be taken from the Nottingham Forest draw, it’s that efficiency in the final third will define this team’s success under Slot.