Arsenal v Liverpool: Back 10/1 Bet Builder at the Emirates say Opta | OneFootball

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It's third versus first this weekend in what already looks like a match that could have significant influence on the Premier League title race.

Both teams come into it in differing moods as well. Arsenal are four points off top spot after their first defeat of the season against Bournemouth, while Liverpool are setting the pace with seven wins out of eight.

The margin between a confidence-boosting result and a devastating one is razor-thin for the Gunners, given that another loss will put them seven points back on the leaders. A victory, meanwhile, will see their deficit to the Reds cut to just a point.

Unbeaten Manchester City will be interested observers of this clash. Pep Guardiola's men could have moved into top spot by the time their two title rivals do battle at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, so let's have a look at what might happen.

Arsenal's head loss is costing them

Instead of picking a winner straight away, it makes sense to start by dissecting one of the issues that is plaguing Arsenal.

Mikel Arteta's side struggle to keep their discipline, with William Saliba's red card being the club's 18th since the manager took charge in December 2019 - at least five more than any other team in that timeframe.

Saliba's sending off was their third of the season in the Premier League, despite the campaign being just eight games old. That total means that they are currently on schedule to receive 14 red cards this season. For context, the all-time Premier League record red cards at a single club in one campaign is nine.

While the Gunners' previous two reds have been double bookings through dissent from Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard, there is a wider point to be made about their aggression in matches.

Arsenal have conceded 97 fouls in their opening eight matches, which averages out to 12.13 per match - almost two more than last season and at least one more than in any of the previous nine seasons. As a result, 10/11 for them to concede 12 fouls or more in this match looks like a great price.

Given that referee's thresholds for cards seem to be lower this season, with an average of 5.2 per game being shown up to this point - more than any Premier League season in history - Arsenal are in danger of undermining their performances.

It is in the bigger games that they have struggled to keep a lid on things, having picked up 12 bookings in their matches against Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa this season, constituting 75% of their total number of yellows.

Liverpool, meanwhile, rank third in the league for inviting opposition yellow cards, seeing an average of 3.38 bookings for their opponents per game. With that in mind, it makes sense to get behind three or more Arsenal cards at 6/10. The Gunners are also an enticing 5/4 to be issued with the most cards.

In terms of specific players to be booked, Jakub Kiwior is likely to get a rare start in the league with Saliba suspended and Riccardo Calafiori doubtful after picking up an injury against Shakhtar in midweek. Against a likely front three of Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah, he could struggle and is 21/10 to be carded.

Alternatively, Arsenal's defensive issues could see Thomas Partey fall back. For similar reasons, it would be hard to dissuade against backing him to be carded for a third time this season at 9/5.

Finally, given their record, another red shouldn't be discounted at 9/2.

Don't get behind a team with poor discipline

With the above in mind, it is worth making the point that Arsenal have consistently struggled to remain in control of matches after either losing their discipline or being on the wrong end of a bad refereeing call.

At home to Brighton in August, they were 1-0 up and cruising before Rice's dismissal saw them retreat and concede a goal to draw 1-1.

Similar can be said about their 2-2 draw with Manchester City last month. While they were hardly cruising at 2-1 up, Trossard's red just before half-time directly impacted the match and forced them to defend. As a result, they conceded a late goal to draw.

Finally, Saliba's red card against Bournemouth at 0-0 made it difficult for Arsenal to play anywhere near to their creative best and was ultimately responsible for their 2-0 defeat last weekend.

Given Arsenal's propensity to blow up, it is hard to get behind them against the best teams in the league, which is what leaders Liverpool are. It is also worth noting that Arne Slot's team come into this with a 100% away record after five matches in all competitions.

Clearly, this represents their biggest test of the season, but the way in which Liverpool managed Chelsea out of the game in their 2-1 home victory last weekend - at that point their most difficult match so far - could give some clues as to how they will cope with the step up in quality.

The 1/2 about the Liverpool double chance looks appealing, as does 19/10 for the away win.

Liverpool dominant at both ends

It's a boring suggestion, but Mohamed Salah represents the best value by a considerable distance in any of the goal involvement markets, particularly given Arsenal have struggled without Saliba in the past - they have won just five of the 11 Premier League games the defender has missed since his debut.

Salah is currently on five goals and five assists in the Premier League, which is the Egyptian's second-best goal involvement total after eight matches in any of his seasons at Liverpool and puts him second in the Premier League behind Cole Palmer in that metric. He has also got a goal and two assists in the Champions League so far.

In home games, it is rare to see him on the right side of evens to score anytime, so 7/5 for a goal or assist looks like one of the prices of the weekend. Salah has already scored on the road against Ipswich Town, Manchester United and Wolves this season, while three of his five league assists have come away from Anfield and he set up Darwin Nunez in Wednesday's Champions League win at RB Leipzig.

Looking at Arsenal, they come into this having scored just one goal in their last two matches in all competitions. The goal in question was a fortunate own goal against Shakhtar on Tuesday, with Gabriel Martinelli's strike ricocheting off the goalkeeper after hitting the post.

That is not the best form to take into a match against the team with the best defence in the division. Liverpool have conceded just three league goals this season and have allowed three shots on target or fewer in five matches out of eight, including in last weekend's victory over Chelsea.

As a result, the BTTS: No market could be one worth considering at 23/20.

Back the 10/1 Bet Builder below

Looking at all of the above, it is time to hit the Bet Builders for a bet in this game.

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