Aston Villa v Bayern Munich: Back Watkins to net in thriller at over 2/1 | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Ollie Watkins is in fine form for Aston Villa

Aston Villa play one of their biggest games for years on Wednesday, and our Bundesliga tipster expects it to rain goals against Bayern.

Aston Villa v Bayern MunichWednesday 02 October, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

Rebuilt Villa feel like they belong at Champions League level

Although Aston Villa are former European champions, they haven't featured in Europe's top competition in the Champions League era before this season, but Unai Emery has already constructed a unit that feels like it's built to compete at this level. That is no surprise, given that the obsessive Basque has won the Europa League four times across two different clubs, and he of course took Arsenal to the final of the same competition.

Having secured a top-four finish last term, Villa have kicked on. Their only defeat this term was at home to Arsenal, and in their Champions League opener they took advantage of shambolic defending to sweep aside Young Boys 3-0 in Switzerland. A five-match winning run came to a halt on Sunday, as Villa were held to a 2-2 draw at Ipswich (Diego Carlos is still looking for Liam Delap).

After his heroics for England at the Euros, Ollie Watkins is fit and firing. After an understandably slow start after a busy summer, Watkins has bashed in four goals in his last four appearances. Morgan Rogers - who scored at Ipswich - has nailed down a regular starting spot in support of Watkins, while Youri Tielemans has been absolutely superb in midfield.

John McGinn and Boubacar Kamara are missing in midfield, while Matty Cash is an injury doubt.

Kompany has stamped his mark on Bayern ahead of schedule

Although Bayern won their first six competitive games under new coach Vincent Kompany, the true test came on Saturday night, as they faced last season's double winners Bayer Leverkusen at the Allianz Arena. Would the former Burnley boss abandon his risky high press? Would he compromise to eliminate the significant counter-attack threat of Xabi Alonso's team?

The answer was no. Kompany stuck to his guns, throwing men forward in attacking and defensive situations, and the result was a superb performance. Leverkusen were forced back, with their attacking stars Florian Wirtz and Victor Boniface almost completely neutered. Had Bayern been more clinical in front of goal (Serge Gnabry hit the post and then the bar within a few seconds, and Lukas Hradecky made a brilliant save from Michael Olise), then they would have secured the win they probably deserved instead of the 1-1 draw they had to settle for..

Former Crystal Palace star Olise has been outstanding since joining Bayern, and has scored five goals in his last four appearances. In a recent 5-0 win at Werder Bremen, Olise delivered two goals and two assists. His fellow Premier League alumnus Harry Kane has already netted ten goals in all competitions this season, and is expected to recover from the foot injury that saw him limp out of Saturday night's game.

Kompany has done a good job of rebuilding the confidence of players like Joshua Kimmich, Dayot Upamecano, Min-Jae Kim and Serge Gnabry, who all took serious backward steps under his predecessor Thomas Tuchel. Of course, when there are winners there are often losers - Eric Dier probably isn't fast enough to be part of Kompany's high defensive line, summer signing Joao Palhinha has only been used sparingly, and Leon Goretzka has effectively been told he isn't needed.

On the injury front, defenders Josip Stanisic, Sacha Boey and Hiroki Ito are all still sidelined. With Kimmich operating in midfield, either Raphael Guerreiro or Konrad Laimer will line up at right-back.

Goals likely on special night

It'll be a terrific atmosphere at Villa Park, with the hosts well and truly back in the big time, and I think we're in for a rather chaotic game. Kompany won't rein things in, and I think that commitment to attack with lead to an end-to-end encounter.

Don't be fooled by Saturday's 1-1 draw with Leverkusen - Bayern have scored 30 goals already in all competitions, and they've scored 21 times in the last four games alone. They have only managed three clean sheets, and one of those was against lower-league Ulm in the German Cup.

Six of Villa's eight competitive matches have seen both teams score, and seven of them have featured a minimum of three goals, and I'm happy to make goals a big part of a 13/10 Bet Builder. Let's back BTTS, Over 2.5 Goals and Joshua Kimmich to be fouled. Kimmich will have a lot of the ball in build-up, and he has been fouled at least once in five of his nine club appearances this term.

High line could see Watkins' eyes light up

Bayern under Kompany take plenty of risks, with a 2-4-4 or 3-2-5 shape in build-up. If Bayern lose the ball and Villa break, I can see Watkins getting in behind Kim and Upamecano, and he's simply too big to ignore in the To Score market at 3.25 on the Exchange.

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