Ballon d’Or 2025 odds: Mo Salah early favourite ahead of Real Madrid duo | OneFootball

France Football are expected to announce its 30-man shortlist for the 2025 Ballon d’Or award almost two months before the ceremony, which is scheduled to take place in October.

Even though the event is several months away, discussions about potential nominees for this year’s prize are already underway. It seems unlikely that the current titleholder, Rodri, will successfully defend his crown as he would have missed a significant portion of the 2024/25 season due to a serious knee injury sustained early in the campaign.

However, another Premier League standout, Mohamed Salah, has emerged as a leading contender to succeed the Spanish midfielder. Salah has played a crucial role in Liverpool’s relentless pursuit of their 20th league title and a potential seventh European Cup. While he is currently the early favourite among bookmakers, some affiliated with the club are weighing his chances.

Find the latest 2025 Ballon d’Or odds* here:

“Mohamed Salah should definitely be among the favourites for the Ballon d’Or now,” John Aldridge told Betano. “My only fear is that, with all due respect to Egypt, that he’s not going to win big finals for his country. The voting process definitely takes that into account, so that may work against his chances.

“However, in terms of what Salah has done this season, the likes of Erling Haaland have done well, but Salah has been in a different bracket to them all – including Kylian Mbappe. Another fear is that if Real Madrid go and win the Champions League, they’ll end up giving it to him because that’s how it works!

“I think if Liverpool win the Premier League and do well in the Champions League, Salah has every chance of winning it. You just never know with the voting process though – they consider a lot of things.”

Jamie Carragher, speaking to Sky Sports, concurred:

“I think the problem [is] the fact he’s with Egypt, and he’s probably not playing in the major tournament as such or maybe got a great chance of winning, I think it’s either the Champions League or the major tournament [that influences who wins the Ballon d’Or].”

“Normally, the player who excels in that, like Vini Jr and (Kylian) Mbappe right now, Real Madrid looking really good going for the Champions League. Liverpool will be in that conversation, but right now (Madrid) is certainly the front runner.”

Carragher later clarified on his X (formerly Twitter) account regarding Salah’s international status and its impact on his Ballon d’Or chances. He emphasised that Salah faces a disadvantage playing for Egypt in his pursuit of the award. Carragher stated that even if Salah has an average season at Liverpool but wins the African Cup of Nations and is recognised as the tournament’s MVP—according to Carragher—he would still not be awarded the Ballon d’Or.

Threat from Spain

Rodri’s achievement marks only the second time a Premier League footballer has won France Football’s prestigious prize, following Cristiano Ronaldo, who won it in 2008 and added four more titles while playing for Real Madrid. Currently, two of their stars may challenge Salah for the Ballon d’Or.

Kylian Mbappé, who ended months of speculation by transferring from Paris Saint-Germain to Real Madrid last summer, took some time to adjust to his new surroundings. However, the French international is now playing exceptionally well, competing for both the La Liga and Champions League top scorer titles. He recently showcased his generational talent by scoring a hat-trick against Manchester City as Carlo Ancelotti’s team aims to successfully defend their continental title.

Mbappé’s arrival at the Bernabéu has not diminished the significance of Vinícius Júnior, who finished second in last year’s Ballon d’Or standings and is among this season’s top goal scorers in the European Cup. It’s worth noting that Mbappé and Vinícius could split the votes, potentially opening up a path for Salah to become only the second-ever African winner of the award, following George Weah in 1995.

Prestigious, but not important

For all the adulation that comes with this award, plus the many column inches, some have wondered out loud why an individual prize holds so much weight in what’s effectively a team sport. The former Arsenal head coach Arsene Wenger once stated individual prizes lead to players thinking about themselves.

“I’m against all these things. I’ve seen careers destroyed because the players are too much obsessed to get individual rewards,” he said.

“I feel sometimes it encourages selfishness and people to go too much for their own sake when some partners are in a better position.”

Jose Mourinho, then in charge of Chelsea, agreed with Wenger’s assessment: “I think he is right. In this moment, football is losing a little bit the concept of the team to focus more on the individual.”

Toni Kroos, who joined Real Madrid soon after Mourinho left, reiterated these points on his latest podcast.

“My opinion is that individual awards are unnecessary in a team sport. I’ve always said that and I stand by that. No single player would have won anything on their own,” the ex-German international commented.

“It is prestigious, but not important. That’s a big difference. My idea is simply that I don’t find it important, or not as important as other players. No single player would have won anything on their own.”