Best Bets and Sportsbook Picks for MLS Matchday 4 | OneFootball

Match- New York Red Bulls host Orlando City

This week, in MLS Matchday 4, my New York Red Bulls play at home, hosting Orlando City.  I expect them to win in a rematch from last season’s Eastern Conference Final.

Orlando City have a few changes from last season’s roster, the biggest of which I consider to be the season loss of Wilder Cartagena, who was a pivotal part (pun intended) of the double-pivot midfield with Cesar Araujo.  His torn achilles left Orlando scrambling, but they eventually landed Eduard Atuesta. While I consider Atuesta a solid replacement, it is obvious that chemistry is not yet there in Orlando. In fact, Atuesta won The Designated Pundits’ “NOT Player of the Week” for matchday 3.

Orlando has allowed 8 goals in 3 matches this season, tying Toronto FC for most in MLS. They allowed 2 to NYCFC last week, where they looked surprisingly poor on defense.  If NYCFC forced them into moments of chaos, Orlando’s trip this weekend to the NY/NJ area will be no easier.

Pick- RBNY +120

The Red Bulls are looking at turning the newly named “Sports Illustrated Stadium” into the fortress that Red Bull Arena once was.  They started off with a 2-0 win over Nashville in RBNY’s home opener, and scored two first half goals.  After that, RBNY shut the door on Nashville and helped Carlos Coronel tally his first clean sheet of the season.

Coronel added a second clean sheet at Atlanta, further proving that RBNY’s defense is continuing their playoff form from 2024.  I expect goals for Red Bull and less for Orlando.  My first official pick for MLS Matchday 4 is Red Bulls to win at +120 odds.

Match- Sporting KC hosts Minnesota United

Sporting KC will host Minnesota United this Saturday at 8:15 PM ET, and this matchup has my second pick for the week.  Sporting KC has two home matches this season, both losses, and they host Minnesota United who already have 2 wins this season.

Kansas City has had 5 opportunities to lost this season, all of which they have taken.  While their losses to Miami are nothing to worry about, they also lost to Austion FC (who scored their only 2025 goal in that match), DC United, and the San Jose Quakes. That is not ideal for Peter Vermes’s 2025 season.

Pick- Minnesota DNB +105

Minnesota United have struggled early this season, which is why we see the Draw No Bet option at +105 odds, which is my pick.  However, unlike Sporting KC, Minnesota’s struggles have them winning two matches by a goal to nil, while dropping a match by a 1-0 scoreline on the opening day of MLS action to LAFC.  The results are better with a loss to a stronger opponent.

I will take Minnesota to win, but I need protection against the draw.  I expect Minnesota United’s offense to open up, but until they do, a 0-0 or 1-1 score is a possibility.  Protection that keeps the bet over the +100 line is preferred, and we’re getting a nice price at +105.

Match- Philadelphia Union host Nashville SC

The Philadelphia Union have been a wrecking crew this season, starting 3-0 with 10 goals scored in 3 games with only 3 conceded.  There is no doubt that they have an advantage at home against Nashville SC.  I wanted a pro-Philadelphia play at better odds than their -135 moneyline (which I’m sure will get worse as the week goes on; it was -125 when I started writing this article and already moved 10 points).

Pick- Philly Union 1st Half Win +130

With Philadelphia scoring early and often, I found a good price at the Union to win the first half at +130.  The Union scored 3 goals in first halves this season, and Nashville conceded 2 first half goals in their only road game at Red Bulls.

Going back to last season, Nashville scored only .29 goals in first halves on the road, while allowing exactly 1.  I think Philly will win the match, but they should also win the first half, which has significantly better odds at +130.

Match- Atlanta United host Inter Miami

When will we learn not to discount Inter Miami? This team has proven their depth and power at every turn, yet they are still  +170 to win outright.  While I do like that number, I need a little protection.  Because they also have three red cards this season, there is some unpredictably involved.

While Inter Miami do have a CONCACAF match this week, they also have enough players to rotate in whatever way they choose.  In fact, Inter Miami have 18 players with at least 45 minutes played this season, and we are only 3 matches into the 2025 season. Of course, this match is also prime time at 7:00 PM ET on a Sunday, meaning Atlanta should expect a large crowd and MLS knows there are going to be eyes on this match.  The universe wants an Inter Miami result this weekend in MLS Matchday 4.

Inter Miami DNB +106

Further solidifying my play on Inter Miami is the concussion injury to their star striker Emmanuel Latte Lath.  The average time for passing concussion protocol is 10 days, which would make him unavailable this week (although we won’t know for sure until at LEAST Friday evening when the first injury reports are out).

Atlanta does have some firepower on their roster with Jose Almiron and Saba Lobzhanidze, along with their attacking midfielder Alexey Miranchuk.  There is some volatility, but with the Draw No Bet at +106, this is my final pick for my Matchday 4 article.