Bulgaria v Republic of Ireland Tips: Back the draw in Plovdiv | OneFootball

Heimir Hallgrímsson can guide his side to a draw

The draw looks the best bet when Bulgaria host Republic of Ireland in the first leg of their playoff, says Dave Tindall...

Bulgaria v Republic of IrelandThursday 20 March, 19:45

Two-legged clash shapes future

These two were drawn in the Nations League playoffs after Bulgaria finished runners-up in League C Group 3 while Ireland ended third in League B Group 3.

The deal is this: if Ireland win this two-legged playoff, they remain in League B and Bulgaria stay in League C. But if it goes the other way, Ireland will be relegated and Bulgaria promoted.

And if the idea is to be playing better opposition on a more regular basis, these two playoff matches are key.

League B opponents include Poland, Switzerland, Sweden and North Macedonia. Group C is a clear step down with Albania, Kazakhstan, Moldova and San Marino awaiting.

Bulgaria finding it hard to win

Bulgaria are clear outsiders at 23/10 to take a first-leg lead to Ireland.

With just three wins in their last 12 matches, Bulgaria struggle to get over their line and a wider study period is even more depressing for the nation that lit up World Cup 1994 when Hristo Stoichkov and Yordan Letchkov helped guide them to the last four.

Over their last 32 matches, Bulgaria have won just six times and the highest-ranked team they defeated in that run were 64th.

For context, the Republic of Ireland are currently 60th, with 82nd-placed Bulgaria squeezed between Bahrain and El Salvador.

Republic of Ireland are 6/4 to win the first leg in Plovdiv while The Draw is 19/10.

Backing the Bulgaria v Republic of Ireland draw jumps out

With the better team playing away from home first, the draw is an immediate initial thought. And a deeper dive suggests the stalemate definitely makes sense.

Bulgaria can fairly be described as 'draw specialists' given that they've had eight of them in their last 12 matches. And with Ireland losing six of their last eight away internationals, they find it hard to win on their travels.

Head-to-head form also shouts 'draw' as five of the last seven meetings between this two have ended all-square.

That sequence of draws includes a 1-1 (in Bulgaria) and a 0-0 (in Ireland) when they faced off against each other in this tournament in 2020.

Go back a little further and Ireland's last two trips to Bulgaria have ended 1-1.

To be honest, this one could be a tough watch. Ireland don't shoot much, don't get into their opponents' box much and struggle to have possession.

Icelandic manager Heimir Hallgrímsson took over last summer but signs of progress have been limited.

As for Bulgaria, their last three home matches have ended 1-1 (Belarus), 0-0 (Luxembourg) and 1-0 (Northern Ireland).

The 6/1 for 0-0 is an option, as is the 5/1 for 1-1.

The Draw and Under 2.5 Goals is 2/1 on the Bet Builder but just in case there's a 2-2 or something even more unlikely, the simple bet is The Draw at 19/10.

Parrot to score a Bet Builder option

Ireland's only goal in their last three games was scored by Evan Ferguson but the striker, now on loan at West Ham, hasn't fired in a domestic goal since October. A better Irish scorer punt for Bet Builders is Troy Parrott.

The former Spurs man had a run earlier this season when he scored eight times in 12 matches for AZ Alkmaar, three of those coming against overseas opposition in the Europa League.

He's 11/5 to net here. If it is low-scoring, Parrott to score in a 1-1 draw makes sense and is around 17/1.

For Bulgaria, Kiril Despodov has five in his last 11 at international level and scored for his Greek side PAOK at the weekend.

The 3/1 anytime is certainly worthy of consideration

Now read Paul Higham's Nations League guide ahead of a week of international clashes

Recommended bets

1pt - Back The Draw @ 19/10

Staked: 61.5pts

Returned: 48.47pts

P/L: -13.03pts

Previous:2023/2024 P/L: -£20.792022/2023 P/L: +£16.792021/2022 P/L: +£8.692020/2021 P/L: +£3.06