Bundesliga Tips: Storks to soar in basement battle | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Frank Schmidt's Heidenheim are having a nightmare season

We're focusing on both ends of the Bundesliga this weekend, and TV commentator Kevin Hatchard has three more tips for us.

Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel - Visitors to avoid defeat

Sunday 16 March, 14:30Live on Sky Sports

This is a battle between the bottom two, but neither team has been cut adrift, so this is an enormous match. A win for Kiel could take them out of the automatic dropzone, while Heidenheim are only a point behind them.

The issue for FCH is that they have lost 17 of their last 23 league matches, and there are few signs that they are improving in any way. At home they have lost nine of their last 11, and have scored multiple goals in just one of those matches. The club have stuck by long-serving coach Frank Schmidt, and quite right too. Had it not been for Schmidt's inspirational leadership, the club from the Brenz Valley wouldn't have got to this level.

Holstein Kiel are struggling too, but they are much more punchy than Heidenheim in attack, and remarkably they have scored in every single away match. In their last road game, the Storks won 1-0 at Union Berlin, and they have collected a respectable nine points from the last nine matchdays.

I can't quite fathom why Heidenheim are such strong favourites here, so I'll back Holstein Kiel +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.94, which means we only need them to avoid defeat to give us a winner.

St Pauli v Hoffenheim - Kiezkicker to slip up again

Friday 14 March, 19:30Live on Sky Sports

St Pauli are keeping their heads above water, but it's been tough going in recent weeks, with just one point collected and one goal scored across the last five matchdays. Despite the Millerntor being one of the most atmospheric grounds in the Bundesliga, that raucous support hasn't translated into success on home soil.

Alexander Blessin's men have scored just seven goals at home all season, and just 19 goals overall. They have the worst attacking record in the division, and the loss of French forward Morgan Guilavogui has really cost them in recent matches.

St Pauli have won just twice at home, and I can't really understand why they are the favourites here against Hoffenheim. The visitors aren't a great side, but they have done pretty well against the sides they are supposed to beat recently. They have won three of their last four away games in the league, and all of those victories were against bottom-half sides.

Indeed Hoffenheim are currently on one of their best runs of the season, with two wins and two draws from the last four games. Coach Christian Ilzer has generally struggled to make an impact since arriving at TSG, but there are signs that things are slowly coming together.

I'll use the Asian Handicap here to back Hoffenheim +0 & +0.5 at 2.0, which means we get a half-win if the game ends in a draw, and we get a full pay-out at evens if the visitors take all three points.

Elsewhere I'll use the Sportsbook to back a 2.05 double involving the top two. I'll back Bayern to score two goals or more at Union Berlin - Bayern have netted at least twice in 15 of their last 20 Bundesliga matches, and Union have lost five of their last seven league matches on home soil. In the reverse fixture, Bayern won 3-0, and scored all of those goals in the first 51 minutes.

The other half of the double will be a Both Teams To Score bet in Stuttgart v Bayer Leverkusen. The champions are licking their wounds after a 5-0 aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich in the Champions League, and star player Florian Wirtz is out injured.

However, I expect them to return to the scoresheet here. They were only denied by an Alexander Nübel masterclass in the reverse fixture, as Stuttgart somehow ground out a 0-0 draw at the BayArena, but Bayer have scored in 20 of their 25 matches in the league.

As for Stuttgart, they have struggled defensively all season, and 18 of their 25 matches in the top division have seen both teams find the net. At home, 11 of the last 13 Bundesliga games have seen a BTTS bet land.

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