Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4

The Mag

·22 December 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Villa 2.06 v Man City 1.10 (2-1)

Brentford 0.77 v Forest 0.96 (0-2)

Ipswich 1.06 v Newcastle 3.23 (0-4)

West Ham 1.23 v Brighton 1.34 (1-1)

Palace 1.61 v Arsenal 3.05 (1-5)

As you can see, some very interesting matches, both in terms of their eventual outcomes and the Expected Goals stats.

Villa clearly deserving their win over Man City, no fluke there.

Same with Arsenal, although the winning margin wider than the underlying stats suggest should have been the case.

The draw between West Ham and Brighton looking fair enough, with very similar Expected Goals stats.

Whilst the Brentford v Forest match looks like it was a tight game with very few clear cut chances for either side, the away side clinical to win by a couple of goals, despite only marginally having a better Expected Goals stat.

The very highest Expected Goals stat of any PL team on Saturday, was of course Newcastle United (3.23).

Ironically, this very high Expected Goals total will be mostly made up of the great chances Newcastle United DIDN’T take! Isak one on one, Gordon header, Bruno hitting post etc.

Apart from when Bruno robbed the defender in the box and Isak had a tap in to make it 3-0, the other three goals came via finishes that weren’t easy and had defenders in the way, hence a relatively low Expected Goals stat in each of the three instances.

Very surprised that Ipswich had an Expected Goals stat even as high as 1.06. I think actually this is mostly made up of the one on one chance that Dubravka saved, then play carried on because it was kept out, whereas watching at the time it looked clearly offside and the ‘goal’ would have been ruled out if Dubravka hadn’t saved it.

Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4 – Saturday 21 December 3pm

Newcastle United:

Isak 1, 45+2, 50, Murphy 32

Ipswich:

(In brackets the half-time stats)

Possession was Newcastle 59% (52%) Ipswich 41% (48%)

Total shots were Newcastle 15 (10) Ipswich 10 (4)

Shots on target were Newcastle 7 (5) Ipswich 2 (1)

Corners were Newcastle 1 (0) Ipswich 2 (1)

Touches in the box Newcastle 35 (20) Ipswich 20 (10)

Dubravka, Livramento (Trippier 64), Schar, Burn, Hall, Tonali, Bruno (Miley 80), Willock (Longstaff 64), Murphy (Barnes 64), Isak (Almiron 73), Gordon

Unused Subs:

Vlachodimos, Targett, Osula, Kelly

(Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4 – Match ratings and comments on all Newcastle United players – Read HERE)

(Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4 – Instant Newcastle United fan/writer reaction – Read HERE)

(Ipswich 0 Newcastle 4 : Absolutely brilliant and Alexander Isak first NUFC hat-trick – Jingle bells! Read HERE)

Newcastle United upcoming matches:

Thursday 26 December – Newcastle v Villa (3pm) Amazon

Monday 30 December – Man U v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 4 January – Tottenham v Newcastle (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Week commencing Monday 6 January – Arsenal v Newcastle TBC

Sunday 12 January – Newcastle v Bromley (3pm) BBC iPlayer (FA Cup)

Wednesday 15 January – Newcastle v Wolves (7.30pm) TNT Sports