Football Accumulator Tips: Back 3/1 'Match Odds 90' Acca on Saturday | OneFootball

Football Tips

Daniel Farke will be hoping his Leeds side can bounce back with a win

We have a lot of short-price favourites in the three divisions of the EFL this weekend and Andry Robson has picked out a quartet of favourites to include in a 3/1 Acca using Betfair's Match Odds 90 markets...

Leg #1 - Sheffield United to beat Derby @ 4/9

The Blades are undefeated this season with three wins and two draws so far and they look set to challenge for promotion back to the Premier League. Manager Chris Wilder has quickly managed to get the squad over last season's relegation and confidence looks high, they currently sit 6th in the table and my rankings have them 5th on xPts and 8th in non-penalty xG ratio.

It's been two tricky home games so far this season, welcoming QPR and then Watford, but the Blades restricted the Hornets to just 0.04 xG, conceding just five shots. Derby started the season better than I was expecting with some impressive results, but the performances haven't matched the outcome of some cases.

The Rams beat Middlesbrough 1-0, but lost the xG battle 1.83 to 0.44 as Boro won the shot count 20 to 3. This was followed up with a 3-0 win over Bristol City, but again they lost the xG battle 1.06 to 0.91. My rankings have them 21st for xPts and 23rd for non-penalty xG ratio, with only Portsmouth having a higher xGA so far this season.

There are only four sides that have conceded more shots on target than the Rams this term. They have registered two defeats from two away games so far, conceding a total of 24 shots, 10 shots on target and 14 shots in the box. The Rams could come unstuck here with a home win on the cards.

Leg #2 - Wrexham to beat Crawley @ 2/5

Wrexham were well beaten on Monday night by Birmingham, but we should not be surprised. The sides were two leagues apart last season, and the Blues have just spent £15m on a striker to add to the further £10m spent on other players over the summer.

The Red Dragons are a force at home with a record of W20-D3-L3, scoring an average of 2.73 goals per home fixture. They have now scored two or more goals in their last seven home games, conceding just four, last season both these teams were in League Two, with Wrexham winning 4-1 and 1-0 over their two clashes. Last term, the hosts went off at 1.6 when welcoming Crawley and this season can back them 1.40, despite Wrexham improving their playing staff and Crawley missing some key players.

I have Crawley bottom on xPts, on non-penalty xG ratio and 22nd on shots on target ratio. So far, they haven't generated more than 0.83 xG in any match this season, whilst allowing a total of 59 shots and 24 shots on target.

Leg #3 - Leeds to beat Cardiff @ 4/7

Leeds lost last time out, suffering a 1-0 home defeat to fellow promotion hopefuls Burnley. It was a tight game with Leeds registering 14 shots, 5 shots in the box and 4 shots on target but with a xG of just 0.75. They now travel to bottom placed Cardiff City and should bounce back. Despite some indifferent results they sit 3rd on xPts and 1st for non-penalty xG ratio - no side in the division has generated a higher xG.

Back in March 2024, Cardiff scored two goals in stoppage time to beat Ipswich and there was talk about how they could make a late charge for the play-offs. However, since that win, they have returned W3-D1-L10, conceding 32 goals, an average of 2.29 per 90 minutes. This season they have lost four and drawn once, scoring on just one occasion. The Welsh side struggled to create chances and score goals so far this term. They sit in the bottom six for non-penalty xG, shots on target and shots in the box.

This is a long-term trend. Last season I had them 20th for xPts and 22nd for non-penalty xG ratio and it's continuing into this season.

Leg #4 - Peterborough to beat Bristol Rovers @ 8/15

Posh have not won at home this season, but they have had a tough start with Huddersfield, Wrexham and Lincoln. They have been unfortunate to come away from these games without more points. The total xG over these three games has been 2.22 to 2.36, yet they have scored just once and conceded five. Despite these home results, I still have them 4th on xPts and 2nd on non-penalty xG ratio.

Last season when welcoming sides from 13th downwards they had an impressive record of W10-D1-L1. The Gas started this season with W2-D1-L3 with their victories coming at home to Cambridge who sit 24th and Northampton who occupy 18th. On the road they have generated a total of 1.72 xG or 0.57 xG per game whilst conceding 5.15 xGA, 1.72 per game.

Their away performances have been poor. I have them 21st for away xPts and 23rd for non-penalty xG ratio, with no side having a higher xGA than Rovers on the road. No side has conceded more shots on target per 90 minutes than Bristol Rovers this season when playing away from home either, with an average of 7.33.

Last season against the top half sides on the road they returned W3-D1-L8, keeping just one clean sheet and conceding a total of 24. Over the last 20 League One games spanning this season and last, they have won just six, but these sides have sat in 24th, 18th, 21st, 18th, 24th and 11th.

Recommended bets

Back Sheff United, Leeds, Wrexham and Peterborough all to win @ 3/1