La Liga Tips: Back in-form Athletic to take result away at Atletico | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Inaki Williams has been in fine form for Athletic this term

In a round of fixtures featuring a host of all-European clashes, Jamie Kemp is backing Athletic Bilbao to end their barren run away to Atletico and finally earn a result...

Real Betis v Real Madrid - Sat, 17:30

Real Madrid haven't won in this fixture in either of the previous two seasons, drawing 0-0 in 2022-23 and 1-1 last term. The Benito Villamarin has never been an easy place to go for them, even when they have managed to escape with a victory.

Things have picked up for the home side of late too. After a difficult first half of the season where wins were slow to arrive, they've won three of their last five in La Liga (W1 D1), including each of the last two. And against Real Madrid, they'll have the chance to record three straight league wins for the first time since February 2023 (3).

The big news for Real Betis is that Antony's suspension has been uplifted for this game, and he'll now be available to play against Real Madrid after being sent off last time out. Though it may be hard to believe for Manchester United fans, nobody quite sums up the suddenly improved form for Betis more than the Brazilian, who has provided a real boost since arriving on loan at the club.

With a seemingly recovered joy for the game, Antony has been back to the attacking levels we saw from him at Ajax and consistently looking like a real threat. His confidence seems to be rising by the game too. He's netted three goals in six appearances for his new club so far, averaging three shots and 1.4 shots on target per 90 across all competitions.

Indeed, in what has the potential to be a really thrilling game, I'm drawn to Antony and his fellow Brazilian, Vinicius Junior, to be among the main catalysts this weekend. Just like Antony, the Real Madrid man is also averaging 3+ shots (3.5) and 1+ shot on target per 90 (1.4) across all competitions this term, and has looked plenty sharp in recent weeks.

In a game between an increasingly brave Real Betis side and a Real Madrid team going in search of a treble, expect plenty of attacking going on in this one - and with sizable contributions from the Brazilian duo.

Atletico Madrid v Athletic Bilbao - Sat, 20:00

Saturday night's fixture at the Metropolitano sees third go up against fourth in La Liga, and with both sides in spectacular form too.

While Atletico are the only unbeaten team at home in La Liga this season (W9 D4), opponents Athletic have not lost any of their last 16 LaLiga matches (W9 D7); the longest current unbeaten run by any team in the competition. Indeed, they haven't gone 17+ without defeat in the top-flight since March 1930 (G20 W13 D7).

Athletic's record away to Atletico in the top-flight may not be very good - in fact, they're never won away to Simeone's side (D2 L11) - but it's also true that this might be the best version of the Basque side that we've seen for a long time. While managing a schedule with European football, Valverde's side are just six points behind the top of the table and have lost only three of their 25 league games this term.

On the xG front, the data tells us Atletico and Athletic have been remarkably well matched in how they've performed in La Liga this season. The Madrid side (+18.4) rank only marginally ahead of Athletic (+18.2) for xG difference this term, and their defensive numbers are almost identical too, with 22.9 xG against for Atletico and 22.3 for Athletic.

If the away side are ever going to get an away victory over Simeone's Atletico in La Liga, then this Saturday looks like as a good a chance as they've ever had. It's a quick turnaround for Atletico too, who have a huge Champions League clash away to Real Madrid coming up next Tuesday, and may look to rotate some key players at the weekend.

Ultimately, I'll opt for a stalemate on the night. Atletico are mighty hard to beat on their own patch, but they have drawn two of their last three there in La Liga (D1), and have a formidable opponent in front of them here.

Barcelona v Real Sociedad - Sun, 15:15

Barcelona's 4-4 draw against Atletico Madrid in midweek showed the best and the worst of Hansi Flick's side. They were outstanding for the majority of the game, but coughed up some preventable goals to turn what should have been a result with daylight into an eventual stalemate.

The Catalan side have now scored an astonishing 120 goals in 39 matches this season (3.1 per game), but do concede an average of a goal per game (1.2) and have kept seven fewer clean sheets than their opponents Real Sociedad (19). It's clear that they put much more emphasis on fuelling dominant attacking performances over keeping a tight defence, and it's working for them too (for now).

With a team as bold in attack as Barcelona, up against a opponent in Real Sociedad who look to play man-for-man almost all over the pitch, opportunities for fouls should be abundant in Sunday's fixture in that sense.

Even in the midst of challenging schedules for both, these are two sides who only know how to play with extreme intensity. They're both highly competitive teams who want to impose themselves physically, especially in how they play on the defensive side with pressure all over the pitch.

Two players to target on that front are Fermin Lopez and Brais Mendez - a pair who are both averaging 2+ fouls conceded per 90 in La Liga this season. While the Real Sociedad man is a long-term fixture in his side, Fermin will likely get the chance to rotate in for Barcelona here, as Hansi Flick looks to protect his squad aiming to fight in three different competitions.

Though both teams will have their eye on upcoming fixtures in Europe next week, the philosophies of Barcelona and Real Sociedad should produce a game of fierce competition and attacking opportunities. Indeed, I'll pair 2+ fouls for the aforementioned players with over 2.5 goals in the match.

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