Liverpool v Leicester City: Opta say back 23/1 Bet Builder at Anfield on Boxing day | OneFootball

English Premier League

Opta have put together a 23/1 Bet Builder at Anfield

Opta return to Betfair for the first of their festive period previews, starting with league leaders Liverpool hosting Ruud Van Nistelrooy's struggling Leicester City...

Betfair's Boxing Day Football Superboost!

Aleksandar Isak (v Aston Villa) and Cole Palmer (v Fulham) form our Saturday Superboost with both players in red hot form.

Aleksandar Isak (21) and Cole Palmer (25) both sit in the top seven for shots on target this season.

We just need both men to have a single shot on target for the Superboost to land and the selection has been boosted from 1/2 to 1/1.

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Liverpool consolidated their place at the top of the Premier League tree for Christmas on Sunday, with a thrilling 6-3 victory over Tottenham taking them four points clear of Chelsea with a game in hand still to come.

A typically jam-packed Boxing Day fixture schedule is rounded off by the Reds' clash against Leicester City, with the Foxes coming off the back of a dismal 3-0 defeat to fellow relegation candidates Wolves. Arne Slot's side go into Thursday's game as heavy favourites, but let's have a look at the data to see what might happen.

Egyptian king to reign supreme

Given the likelihood of a one-sided affair, the best places to find value could be the player markets, with Mohamed Salah standing out once again.

With no movement on a new contract for Salah, the prospect of the Egyptian leaving Anfield appears more likely by the day. If this is to be his final season on Merseyside, however, he looks determined to go out with a bang.

Salah made a piece of Premier League history on Sunday, registering two goals and two assists as Liverpool tore through Spurs' backline. With 15 goals and 11 assists in the Premier League this season, he became the first player to ever reach double figures for both metrics by Christmas Day.

Salah's 16 games played, meanwhile, are the joint-fewest a player has ever required to reach 10 goals and 10 assists in a Premier League season, with Harry Kane also achieving the feat in 16 matches in 2020/21.

The forward has really stepped things up of late, scoring 11 times in his last nine league appearances and only failing to net once in that run - in a 2-2 draw with Fulham when Liverpool were reduced to 10 men in the 16th minute. It is almost always worth getting behind Salah, and that is particularly true against a leaky Leicester backline.

Leicester defended dismally in their back-to-back defeats to Newcastle United and Wolves, and they have faced the third-most shots (306) and given up the third-highest expected goals against (xGA) figure (35.24) in the Premier League this season. Only Wolves (40) have conceded more goals than Leicester (37) in the Premier League this campaign, so Salah should get plenty of opportunities.

The price around Salah as an anytime scorer is extremely short at 8/15, but 13/5 for him to score two or more goals could be worth a look, particularly with the forward having netted twice in three of his last five league matches, doing so against Tottenham, Newcastle and Southampton.

Importantly, Salah - who is 9/1 for his first hat-trick of the season - has taken and scored all four of Liverpool's Premier League penalties this term, with only Bournemouth (six) winning more spot-kicks.

The price of 1/1 for Salah to register an assist also appeals, though it should be recognised that Salah's 11 assists this term have come from an expected assists (xA) figure of just 3.49 - only the 10th-highest in the division.

Salah has benefitted from some excellent finishing from his team-mates and his overperformance in the creative stakes may not be all that sustainable, so backing him in the goal markets looks the prudent play.

Trent to put shooting boots on

Salah was joined on the scoresheet at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium by Dominik Szoboszlai, who attempted six shots throughout the game. Only Salah and Luis Diaz recorded more with seven apiece, while the entire Tottenham team only attempted three more than the Hungarian, firing off nine efforts.

With the double pivot of Alexis Mac Allister and Ryan Gravenberch protecting Liverpool's backline, Szoboszlai is given freedom to roam and has a knack for popping up in opposition penalty areas. He hit the target with two of his shots against Spurs and a price of 12/5 about him doing the same on Thursday offers decent value, as does 13/5 for him to score anytime.

However, with Liverpool going to West Ham within 72 hours of Thursday's game, there is every chance Slot shuffles his pack, and Szoboszlai could miss out if the Dutchman rotates. One player who will surely start is Trent Alexander-Arnold, who is 6/5 to have at least one shot on target and 13/1 to score his first goal of the season.

Given his status as Liverpool's primary set-piece taker and the likelihood of the Reds spending long periods camped on the edge of Leicester's area, Alexander-Arnold will fancy his chances of hitting the target at least once. His 13 shots from outside the box in 2024/25 are more than any other Liverpool player, and only Luis Diaz (four) has hit the target from distance on more occasions than his three.

Only Brentford (8.88) have faced more shots on target per 90 minutes on their travels this season than Leicester (6.88), so Mads Hermansen could be a busy man if he overcomes a groin injury to return between the sticks. Backing Alexander-Arnold to work him at some stage could be wise.

Christmas card for Soumare

Leicester have been without midfield enforcer Wilfred Ndidi since he suffered a hamstring injury in a 2-2 draw with Brighton and Hove Albion earlier this month, leaving Boubakary Soumare with the responsibility of shielding their defence.

Soumare has started three of Leicester's four games under Ruud van Nistelrooy, only missing their 4-0 defeat at Newcastle due to suspension after picking up five yellow cards.

The Frenchman is not a prolific fouler, only conceding seven this season, which is fewer than 12 other Foxes players. Interestingly, though, those he does commit tend to attract further punishment - his six bookings this term are more than any other Leicester player, and only Southampton's Flynn Downes (seven) has more in the Premier League overall.

Leicester have been more aggressive under Van Nistelrooy than was the case under his predecessor Steve Cooper. Indeed, since the Dutchman's first game at the helm, only Nottingham Forest and Wolves (both 54) have committed more fouls in the Premier League than the Foxes (49).

Thursday's visitors have received multiple yellow cards in three of their four matches under Van Nistelrooy, and given Liverpool's devastating ability on the counterattack, it will be no surprise if a couple of tactical fouls are required. Soumare is 7/5 to be shown a card, with only fellow midfielder Hamza Choudhury 11/8 a shorter price.

Little hope for Foxes

Assigned a huge 85.2% win probability by the Opta supercomputer, the highest of any team on matchday 18, Liverpool are incredibly short in the match result market at 1/16 to win.

While most punters will want to be on Liverpool's side, value must be sought elsewhere, and with a one-sided affair predicted, a look at the handicap markets could prove profitable. The hosts are just 1/4 when giving Leicester a one-goal head start, so backing Liverpool -2 at 4/5 could be the attractive play.

Leicester have been blown away by teams with far less firepower than Liverpool recently, with their last three defeats all coming by a margin of three or more goals, going down 4-1 to Brentford, 4-0 at Newcastle and 3-0 to Wolves. Having also lost 3-0 at Manchester United - then led by Van Nistelrooy as interim coach - in November, the Foxes have lost three successive away games by a margin of at least three goals.

Nottingham Forest are the only visiting team to avoid shipping multiple goals at Anfield in the Premier League this season, so the leaders will be confident of a handsome victory.

When Liverpool last won the Premier League in 2019/20, they crushed Leicester by a 4-0 scoreline at the King Power Stadium on Boxing Day, with Roberto Firmino netting twice and being joined on the scoresheet by James Milner and Alexander-Arnold.

Leicester have shown a tendency to let games get away from them lately, particularly on the road, so it is difficult to see them putting up a better fight this time around.

On Boxing Day, Betfair are giving away a completely free bet to customers to use across all sports, and at Opta, we want to use the info above to put together a Bet Builder.

The following Bet Builder is available at 23/1 on the sportsbook:

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