Opta Predicts Arsenal v Man City: Back Haaland and Gvardiol goals in 66/1 Bet Builder | OneFootball

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The big games keep on coming for Manchester City, who travel to the Emirates Stadium in what will be their toughest test since rediscovering some form.

But should we expect to see the champions back at their best or will Arsenal put them in their place? Let's have a look at what the data is saying.

Improving City represent value

It is undeniable that Manchester City have returned to some sort of form.

They come into this game on the back of a comeback 3-1 victory over Club Brugge in the Champions League, which just about secured their progression to the play-off round.

That result came after a 3-1 win over Chelsea in the Premier League last Saturday and they have won six and drawn one of their last eight matches in all competitions.

Domestically, meanwhile, City have dropped just two points in their last five games, scoring at least two goals in each. Only Newcastle (15) have won more points since Christmas than Man City (14), while Pep Guardiola's side have scored the most goals (18) in that time.

There was an ominous sense of familiarity in the way Guardiola's men demolished Ipswich Town in their 6-0 victory in mid-January, without ever seeming to overstretch themselves. That was the 13th time that City have scored six or more goals in a league game under Guardiola, but their performance against Chelsea arguably did more to prove that they are capable of mixing it with the best again.

From a mentality perspective, it is striking how well City did to get back into the game after an early setback given that they have previously crumbled in the face of adversity this season. City have dropped 14 points from winning positions in the Premier League, including eight from the 75th minute onwards - more than any other team. Within the last month, they have twice surrendered two-goal leads in the 2-2 draw with Brentford and 4-2 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League.

Yet against Chelsea, City responded well after debutant Abdukodir Khusanov's error gifted Chelsea a goal and did so again in midweek after initially going a goal down against Club Brugge.

While City's mid-season capitulation means that the Premier League title is now likely out of reach - the Opta supercomputer gives them a 0.22% chance of topping the league - there is a chance that they could have begun doing the thing that they have previously been so good at, all over again.

Under Guardiola, City have been characterised by unstoppable periods of form from mid-season onwards, including a run of 19 victories from their final 23 league games last season, drawing the other four.

Manchester City have, in fact, lost just one of their last 40 Premier League matches played between January and the end of the season (W33 D6), with a 1-0 defeat to Brentford - when they were already sure of the title on the final day of 2022-23 - being the odd one out.

It is also worth pointing out that City currently have the best record of any current top-six side against one another, having won three games and drawn two out of six. Arsenal have won just one out of five, beating Nottingham Forest 3-0 at the Emirates Stadium in November.

Having moved on from the nadir of their season, the price dictates that we have to favour Manchester City in the win-draw-win market at 3/1. For those looking for an added layer of protection, draw no bet is 15/8 while, at 5/6, Manchester City double chance could fit into a bet builder.

Arsenal themselves are a fearsome proposition, having lost just two league games all season, while they are the only Premier League side who remain unbeaten at home. But it is worth pointing out that in all competitions, the Gunners have won just two of their last five matches at the Emirates Stadium - their worst run of the season.

That sequence includes an EFL Cup semi-final defeat to Newcastle, an FA Cup penalty defeat to Manchester United and a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa in which Arsenal blew a two-goal lead. Perspective also needs to be applied to their victories, coming against Dinamo Zagreb in the Champions League and out-of-form rivals Tottenham.

Expect goals at the Emirates

One thing we should be expecting from this game is goals. Arsenal come into it on the back of a 2-1 victory over Girona in the Champions League on Wednesday, which was their sixth game in nine in which BTTS has landed. In the Premier League, meanwhile, it's four games in five, while four in seven have gone over 2.5 goals.

City, too, are among the Premier League's great entertainers, with BTTS landing 16 of their 23 league games (70%). It has been a winner in eight of their last 10 matches, with the only two outliers being their 6-0 victory at Ipswich and the 2-0 win over Leicester City in December, a game in which the Foxes spurned multiple chances.

Manchester City have scored the second-most goals (47) in the top four, and conceded the most (30) at an average of 3.35 goals per game - the fourth-most in the division. While we will get onto City's glut of impressive attackers later, it's worth shining a light on their suspect defence.

Khusanov endured a tough debut against Chelsea - losing the ball eight times before coming off in the 54th minute - and, while he did not feature in the Champions League in midweek, he could come back in here. John Stones has started one game since late December, while midfielder Matheus Nunes is also filling in at the back. This could go some way to explaining why City are conceding the highest xG per shot (0.15) in the Premier League on average.

At 6/10, both teams to score is one of the simplest picks of the weekend. Over 2.5 goals also look a good price at 4/6, but the value is with over 3.5 at 9/5.

Gvardiol and Haaland worth backing at the price

In terms of goalscorers, there is huge value with Josko Gvardiol at 13/1. The Croatian netted his fifth league goal of the season in City's victory over Chelsea, meaning he is the team's third-highest goalscorer behind Erling Haaland and Phil Foden.

He has also generated the third-highest xG in the City squad (3.99) and has a shot-to-goal conversion rate of 15.15%.

Haaland himself is another player worth considering, given that you are unlikely to see him at 17/10 to score in many other games and he has come back into form. Having scored just three times in 13 league games between the reverse fixture against Arsenal (28 September) and City's Boxing Day draw with Everton, he now has five goals in five appearances.

In scoring those, he has outperformed his xG by 1.1 (3.9 xG) and has hit the target with 81.25% of his shots in his last five league games (13 of 18), having only done so with 55.56% in his previous 13 (20 of 47). Alongside a Gvardiol goal, the pair are worth considering for a Link Ups bet in Betfair's new Build Ups feature.

Elsewhere, Foden is worth a mention having netted six goals in his last four league appearances, averaging three shots per game during that time. He is 7/2 to score again and 9/5 to have three or more shots.

From an Arsenal perspective, it makes sense to look at longer-priced picks given that none of their players have scored more than eight top-flight goals.

Gabriel Magalhaes has netted three league goals and, given Arsenal's set-piece threat, should always be considered a danger - Mikel Arteta's side rank first for set-piece goals with 12. He is 8/1 to find the net again on Sunday, but could also be worth considering in a Match Ups bet against Gvardiol as part of the Build Ups feature - the Croatian is the only defender to outscore Gabriel this season.