Opta's Supercomputer vs Betfair Sportsbook: Finding the value in the markets after seven games | OneFootball

We are seven matches into the Premier League season and the table is starting to take shape.

While there is plenty that can still happen over the course of the 2024-25 campaign, the second international break represents a decent opportunity to take stock.

So, with an eye on the main outright markets, let's have a look at the winners and losers of the first two months of the season.

Premier League Title - The Winners

Liverpool

Premier League leaders Liverpool have to be considered the biggest winners in terms of the title race so far.

Their 1-0 victory over Crystal Palace in the final match before the international break maintained a one-point lead over chasers Manchester City and Arsenal. That was their sixth victory in seven league games and ninth in 10 matches overall, which means Arne Slot has had the best-ever start of any Liverpool manager in history.

Crucially for Liverpool, their star players are performing. Mohamed Salah has four goals and four assists in his first seven matches, which is his second-most productive opening seven matches in any season since joining the club. Luis Diaz, meanwhile, has had his best start with five goals in seven appearances.

Slot's side are excelling at the back as well, with Virgil van Dijk ranking equal-first for interceptions with 17 and second for aerial duels won with 30. They have conceded just two goals so far, which is at least four fewer than any other team.

What this means is that Opta's supercomputer now gives Liverpool an 11.1% chance of winning the Premier League title, which is more than double the 5.2% chance they were given before the season started.

The caveat with all of this is that their outright price still doesn't represent great value when comparing with the supercomputer. They are available at 7/2 to win the league, which gives an implied probability of 22.2% - double that of the supercomputer's prediction.

This could be in part down to who Liverpool have faced. Unlike Manchester City and Arsenal, they have not faced any team currently in the top nine in the Premier League. According to Opta's team ratings, they have had the easiest set of fixtures in the division.

Arsenal

It's a similar story in terms of value when looking at Arsenal.

The Gunners have also started the season well with five victories and two draws from seven, which has seen their probability of winning the title jump from 11.4% pre-season to 19% as per the supercomputer.

They have had slightly more difficult fixtures than Liverpool as well - an average rating (out of 100) of 87.1 compared to 84.6 - and were seconds away from taking all three points from Manchester City away - the most difficult fixture of the lot.

Mikel Arteta's side are now favourites for the title on the sportsbook, priced at 13/10 working out at an implied probability of 43.5%. There is too much of a gap for them to be considered good value at this stage.

The Losers - Is the value still with Man City following the drift in price?

It feels counter-intuitive to call Manchester City a loser but, for the context of this piece, we'll go with it. As the only one of the three viable options to win the title to have lost ground on their pre-season prediction, they have to be considered as such.

Despite the above, it is worth noting that the Opta supercomputer still rates Pep Guardiola's side as clear favourites to win the title, giving them a 69.8% chance - down from 83% pre-season.

With that in mind, their outright price of 7/4 - implied probability of 36.4% - still makes them the value pick of the three.

It is also worth noting that Manchester City have come through a tougher set of fixtures than their two title rivals, although one would assume that the ground given up in their draws against Arsenal and Newcastle are big factors in their revised prediction.

Top Four Finish - The Winners

Chelsea become odds-on following surprising start under Maresca

Supported by the finishing ability of Cole Palmer, Chelsea have been an early-season success story.

Only Erling Haaland has scored more goals than the six Palmer has managed, while the Chelsea forward is outscoring his xG by 1.64. Noni Madueke's four goals from an xG of just 1.9 is also worth mentioning given that he is already just one behind his Premier League total for last season.

Chelsea's 14-point haul from their opening seven matches currently has them in fourth, level on points with Aston Villa and two ahead of Brighton and Newcastle in sixth and seventh respectively.

That start has seen them upgraded to a 49% chance of finishing in the top four by the supercomputer, compared to 32.7% pre-season. As much has been reflected in their price to finish in the top four, which is now 17/20.

Aston Villa

Another team who has done themselves no harm in the race for the top four is Aston Villa.

Unai Emery's side were given just a 7.2% chance of repeating last season's impressive finish before a ball had been kicked. That has now almost doubled to 14.2%, while their price of 9/2 suggests an implied probability of 18.2%.

The Losers - Avoid Man Utd; lay the top six at 6/4?

Manchester United

While there is still a long way to go, the way Manchester United have started this season suggests that there could be a new level of infamy on the way for their current cohort.

Erik ten Hag's side are 14th in the Premier League, eight points below the top four and just four above the relegation zone. Among other issues, their finishing ability seems to have completely deserted them.

United are the second-lowest scorers in the Premier League with five goals - only second-bottom Southampton have scored fewer. That is despite ranking eighth for xG, meaning their xG underperformance (-6.11) is comfortably the biggest in the league.

That the above is the case having had a middling difficulty of fixtures is another cause for concern - they are yet to play Manchester City, Arsenal and Chelsea.

As a result, the supercomputer has downgraded their top-four chances from a pre-season probability of 17.3% to just 1.9%. Their top-four price, meanwhile, is sitting at 15/2 - a probability of 11.8% - whilst this would incur a big liabilty if you were to lay, it is not a tempting price to back. United are 6/4 for a top six finish, which could be a better idea to lay on the Betfair Exchange.

Don't understand 'to lay' on the Betfair Exchange? Have a read of our Exchange 'How To' guide here!

Relegation - The Winners

Forest do their survival chances the world of good

Nottingham Forest are the biggest winners in this category, having enjoyed an impressive start to the season. Nuno Espirito Santo's side have made themselves difficult to beat and, despite having only won two matches - one of which came at Liverpool - they have lost just one.

Before the season began, the Opta supercomputer suggested that there was a 35.6% chance that Forest would go down this season. That has now been cut to just 9.4%, which also suggests that they are outperforming their price of 13/2 (implied probability of 13.3%).

Leicester City

Another team outperforming their price to go down is Leicester, who earned their first win of the season against Bournemouth last weekend. They are 4/5 (55.6% implied probability) to go down on the sportsbook, but the supercomputer predicts a lower 43.6% chance of relegation.

The Losers - trends not looking good for current bottom three

It is interesting to note that the combined total of points from the promoted teams at this stage (11) is the second-fewest in the last 10 seasons, beaten only by 2023-24 (six) in which all three promoted teams went straight back down.

In each of the last 26 seasons, meanwhile, at least one team has been relegated having been in the bottom three at this point.

Southampton

One team that ticks both of the above boxes is Southampton, who are second-bottom having managed just one point. The supercomputer suggests that Saints have an 89.7% chance of being relegated - up from 64.1% pre-season - and a 60.8% chance of finishing bottom.

That would suggest that, even though they are as short as 2/9 to go down, there is still a small amount of value in their price, given its implied probability of 81.8%.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Elsewhere, bottom-of-the-league Wolves can consider themselves fortunate to be as long as 6/4 for relegation. Gary O'Neil's side are given a 52.6% chance of going down by the supercomputer - up from 20.8% before a ball had been kicked.

Golden Boot - The Winner(s)

Robotic Erling Haaland unlikely to be caught

Erling Haaland looks like he is motoring towards his third consecutive Premier League Golden Boot. He would only be the third person after Alan Shearer and Thierry Henry to manage such a feat and it is hard to make a case against him.

Haaland hit 10 goals inside the first five matches this season, breaking a Premier League record that he shared with Mick Quinn for the fewest games to reach the landmark. He is also the fastest player to ever reach 50 Premier League goals, having done so in just 48 matches.

While he blanked in his last two, he is still four ahead of Cole Palmer and Bryan Mbeumo in second and he also ranks first for xG (6.5).

He's as short as 1/8 for a reason.

Could Kai Havertz be Haaland's closest rival?

The best of the rest is Kai Havertz. The Arsenal forward has scored four goals from an xG of 4.38 - the third-highest in the division behind Haaland and Nicolas Jackson. His average xG per shot, meanwhile, is 0.18 - just 0.01 behind Haaland.

Given Haaland's price, each-way contenders benefit from theirs being inflated. Havertz is 25/1 to win the Golden Boot and, with the top two being in included in each-way terms, is worthy of note.

The Losers - Darwin & Isak struggle to live up to pre-season hype

Everyone else.

But more specifically of those that were fancied pre-season, Darwin Nunez and Alexander Isak are not where they were expected to be with both having scored just one goal.

For Nunez, a lack of gametime has made it difficult to trouble the scoring charts, having started just one league game.

Isak's recent gametime has also been limited, having suffered a broken toe last month. But prior to that, he had managed just two shots on target in five appearances.

Finally, a mention for Bruno Fernandes. The Manchester United midfielder has taken more shots (18) than any other player in Europe's top five leagues without scoring a goal.

*All percentage probabilities correct at the time of writing.