Premier League Final Day Tips: De Bruyne and Bowen backed plus 9/1 Foxes shout | OneFootball

English Premier League

The Bournemouth faithful have had little to cheer about at the Vitality of late

Ste Tudor bids farewell to the 2024/25 Premier League season with 10 tempting bets...

Bournemouth v Leicester (16:00) - Trading places

The Foxes have scored six goals in their last three, requiring 19 games to match that figure previously. It's safe to say therefore they are improving in an attacking sense.

Indeed it's a welcome change to assess their shots stats for other reasons than to damn them, and from these the most noticeable spike is in shots on target, Ruud Van Nistelrooy's men averaging 4.3 per 90 across their recent resurgence. It was 2.6 in their three-game sequence prior to that. And 1.6 prior to that.

Their latest average trumps Bournemouth's but is that any surprise given that the Cherries are once again ending a season on a downturn? They lost their concluding three games last time out and lost their last four in 2022/23.

Here though the malaise appears to be more far-reaching, and especially so at home where Andoni Iraola's recent over-achievers have won only one of their last seven. Converting every 157 minutes in those games goes a long way to explaining that.

Fulham v Man City (16:00) - Departing maestro

A sharp rise in corners won for Manchester City of late is perhaps the least interesting aspect to this fascinating clash, that sees the Blues needing a point or better to secure Champions League football. Still, the numbers are too severe to ignore.In their last five outings, City have won 37 corners (7.4 per 90). In their five prior it was 15 (3 per 90). Their seasonal average is 5.2.

Kevin de Bruyne's return to regular action partly explains this, the Belgian needing no invitation to whip in deliveries from out wide, and it's the departing maestro we're staying with here, dead-set as he will be to sign off with a flourish.

The 33-year-old has taken on a shot every 20 minutes across his last three outings.

Ipswich v West Ham (16:00) - Bowen backed

Once again, a recent spike in corners grabs the attention, this time courtesy of the Hammers who have won as many in their last two outings as their six prior. For the visitors to win the race to 5 corners at 1/1 is a decent add to any Bet Builder given that 10 of West Ham's last 14 have come before the break.

Alas, against Forest last weekend, not even a high volume of set-pieces - nor for that matter their biggest shot-haul since Jan 4th - was enough to create a single big chance, the misfiring Hammers relying on a moment of brilliance from Jarrod Bowen to get on the score-sheet, and it's the striker we're turning to again to make the difference here.

Bowen boasts seven goal involvements in seven and it was he who put the game to bed last October against an Ipswich side who were hemorrhaging goals then and are still doing so now.

Shipping in 25 goals in their last eight home fixtures says it all about a side who were far too often out-classed at this level.

Liverpool v Crystal Palace (16:00) - Champions to end on high

From Mo Salah's goal involvements drying up to Palace flying high after their cup success all the evidence points towards a mildly surprising away win at Anfield.

Liverpool have failed to win since confirming their champion's status (D1 L2) and let's not forget that the Eagles won on Merseyside last season, Eberechi Eze grabbing the only goal. The winger has been in scintillating form of late, with seven goal involvements in six.

Yet, for all this, a 26th league victory of Liverpool's campaign is fancied here, or at least they are backed to get the ball rolling.

The Reds have scored first in 10 of their last 13 league contests while Palace have conceded first in four of their last six. Moreover, Arne Slot's title-winners have converted inside 20 minutes in five of their last seven.

Man United v Aston Villa (16:00) - Only one winner

Last October's goalless stalemate at Villa Park was an outlier for a fixture that typically produces goals, 4.1 per 90 in the preceding six. Given the contrasting form of both teams it is the visitors who are strongly fancied to score them here.Demoralised even further by their Europa League final defeat midweek, United have converted only four times in their last eight league outings, and more damning still, have won only one of their last seven at home. Unai Emery's high-flyers by comparison have accrued 24 points from their last 27 and go into the final day firmly in the top five reckoning.

It's when the Midlands side do their damage that is most of interest, only scoring once inside half an hour on the road since September. Indeed, 14 of their last 18 on the travels have come in the second half.

Under 0.5 first half goals tempts therefore at 13/5 but instead let's go for a safer option.

Newcastle v Everton (16:00) - Magpies to manage

An emotional three points gained at Goodison last week coupled with an impressive victory at Fulham takes the Toffees up to the North-East in decent shape. Dwight McNeil is their player to watch, notching up three goal involvements in his last three appearances. The winger also has three goal involvements in four against the Magpies.

Yet this is all about the hosts and their need for a win in order to secure a Champions League spot.

To that end, Eddie Howe's men have kept clean sheets in each of their last three at home, taking on a shot every five minutes across those games. Here they will likely be denied the prolific services of Alexander Isak but have ample enough attacking options elsewhere to trouble Everton, namely Harvey Barnes who has stood out of late.

With the visitors yet to concede more than two goals under David Moyes a low-scoring home win to nil appeals. Under 2.5 goals offers up 31/20

Nottingham Forest v Chelsea (16:00) - Gibbs-White to deliver

A draw is no good for either team in this fascinating Champions League shoot-out at the City Ground. Naturally then, we focus on the proven difference-makers, players who can step up amidst the heightened pressure.

For the visitors these are few and far between, with both Neto and Madueke enduring dips in form in recent weeks. Being deprived of Jackson, Nkunku and Guiu meanwhile has necessitated goals from every available source. Chelsea's last nine has all come from different scorers.

One of which was Cole Palmer who persistently hints at returning to greatness. The 23-year-old was arguably the Blues best performer against Man United last weekend.

While Palmer promises however, his England colleague Morgan Gibbs-White delivers, scoring three times in his last two showings, while providing three key passes for good measure.

Intriguingly, the midfielder was booked in each of his four games prior.

Southampton v Arsenal (16:00) - Gunners can be got at

There are a number of reasons why it's tempting to back a 9/1 home win this Sunday afternoon at St Mary's.

Both teams have their league position secured for the history books, with the Gunners finishing second for the third consecutive season while the Saints are rock bottom no matter what. That allows for a pressure-free environment for the hosts to gift their long-suffering fans a crumb of comfort for the summer ahead. To end a miserable campaign on a high note.

Moreover, William Saliba is a doubt, likely to join Gabriel, Timber and Tomiyasu in the stands. A makeshift back-line can be got at for all of Arsenal's many (13) clean sheets this term.

Lastly, and least convincingly, Mikel Arteta's men have lost their final away fixture in each of the last two seasons.

But then we acknowledge just how ineffectual Southampton's attack is, managing a meagre four shots on target across their last three outings, and it just can't be done.

The best that can be hoped for, from a Southampton perspective, is a draw, an outcome Arsenal have settled for in six of their last 11 contests.

Even that would require Aaron Ramsdale to excel, the former Gunner making 16 saves in his last five outings.

Tottenham v Brighton (16:00) - Back to reality

Tottenham will rightfully right now be enjoying their Europa League cup success to the fullest but Sunday brings the Premier League, and a return to grim reality.

Remember when Spurs trounced Manchester City at the Etihad, a result that feels like an eternity ago and not a mere six months. Since then Ange Postecoglou's floundering collective have faced sides in the top half of the table on 12 occasions, winning only one and losing the other 11. In those 11 they conceded 2.5 goals per 90.

Brighton are hoping to have Joao Pedro and Georginio Rutter back in their ranks but even without the pair the Seagulls have the attacking nous to complete a double over Spurs having beat them 3-2 on the South Coast earlier in the campaign. Brajan Gruda has especially impressed accruing a goal involvement every 28 minutes this past month.

As a number 10 he was superb versus Liverpool on Monday, assisting, laying on five key passes, and completing three successful dribbles.

Surprisingly, Spurs have scored first in five of their last seven across all comps while Brighton have earned 20 points from losing positions this term. Let's go for another comeback at terrific odds.

Wolves v Brentford (16:00) - Goal-fest at Molineux

The twin-threat offered up by Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa has been mentioned plenty of times in dispatches this term but still their combined menace doesn't get the full credit it deserves.

Should both of them score at Molineux they will be the first team-mates to each bag 20+ in a season since Salah and Mane in 2019.

At the other end, Wolves possess their own devasting twosome, with Matheus Cunha scoring more goals from outside the box than any player across Europe's big five leagues this season. Jorgen Strand Larsen meanwhile has scored every 84 minutes since mid-March.With so much firepower on display, is it any wonder we're going for goals galore in the Black Country this Sunday. Each team's top-flight games this term have produced 121 goals and only Liverpool and Spurs can top that.

Now read Ste's Premier League Opta Statsheet here

Recommended bets