RB Leipzig v Liverpool: Curtis Jones can land shots bounty at 7/2 | OneFootball

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RB Leipzig v LiverpoolWednesday October 23, 20:00Live on TNT Sports

Confidence won't be an issue here. We have two teams in sparkling form.

Leipzig have taken 17 points after seven Bundesliga games, conceding only twice and won 2-0 at Mainz on Saturday.

Meanwhile, Arne Slot has stepped into Jurgen Klopp's shoes in seamless fashion, racking up 10 wins in his first 11 matches meaning Liverpool have put together their best start to a season since 1990.

Two of those victories have come in this competition, beating AC Milan 3-1 before a 2-0 defeat of Bologna at Anfield. They are in a great spot with a top-eight finish in mind.

The 1.87 available on the away win on the Betfair Exchange will tempt many in whilst RB Leipzig can be backed at 4.1.

My punting instincts have taken me to the shots market for angle in though.

Liverpool star stands out in shots market

When it comes to finding players who could be overpriced in the shots market, a metric I like use that isn't factored into the bookmakers prices is the runs into the box statistic.

This shows a player is keen to get into attacking positions in the box where obviously the chances of shooting opportunities dropping their way is higher even if their raw shots data doesn't quite show that. In the right spot when the prices are right, there are great opportunities to back players like this for some juicy returns.

Curtis Jones is on my radar in that regard.

He's made 14 runs into the box in total in his last two starts against Crystal Palace and Chelsea. He was excellent on Sunday in Liverpool's 2-1 win, putting in a very all-action performance where three of those runs into the box ended in big moments, winning two penalties - one that was overturned - and then scoring what was the winning goal.

His total shot output was two, following on from four against West Ham in the Carabao Cup and one against Palace. If he remains in this kind of form, playing with this type of verve and energy, he could become an automatic starter for Slot over the next six games.

That performance against Sunday makes his undroppable surely for this trip to Germany.

And I'm very interested in his shots lines here.

RB Leipzig's style always makes them vulnerable to conceding shots on their goal.

Opposition teams have managed 10 or more shots in 19 of their last 20 games across all competitions to a per game average of 15.8. Liverpool will have plenty of moments and Jones will be busting a gut to join the forward players in dangerous positions.

His overall shots per 90 average in the Premier League over the last three seasons stands at 1.61 which is a healthy rate and only further adds confidence behind the 11/10 on offer for him to cover the two shots line against the German side.

My advice would also cover the three or more shots line at 7/2 with half a stake due to Leipzig's nature of conceding shots against elite opposition. In matches against Bayer Leverkusen, Juventus and Atletico Madrid this season, their shots faced average works out at 21 per 90.

Now read more of Wednesday's Champions League tips here!