Sailing close to the wind from a PSR standpoint but what a 2025 summer transfer window | OneFootball

Ahead of the 2025 summer transfer window, part one of this article looked at the current Newcastle United squad, the likely departures and what the priorities are when it comes to upgrading the squad.

In part two we’re going to move into director of football mode and try and decipher from the biggest transfer rumours what Newcastle might do with incomings this summer.

In part one, I identified RW, CB, ST, GK, LB/LB and CM as our priorities in that order, so we’ll consider each role in turn and the potential recruits for each.

Below is a table summarising a list of potential recruits who meet the criteria set out in part one. The two exceptions here are Jonathan David and Joan Garcia.

David is included as he is available on a free and has been linked extensively with a move to the Premier League. Garcia is on the list due to the nature of his release clause and also because of extensive links to the Premier League.

RW

Bryan Mbeumo

Mbeumo is one of the most talked about transfer targets and is attracting interest from multiple Premier League clubs, and if you look at his numbers alone this interest is more than justified. He scored 20 goals from 38 appearances in the Premier League this season, featuring in every game after his 23/34 campaign was hit by injury. He also contributed 7 assists operating primarily off the right wing. Mbeumo turns 26 this summer and is very much coming into the prime of his career, his output in terms of goals and assists has increased year on year.

One of the factors that puts him slightly ahead of others as a potential signing is his flexibility across the front line. While he is very much a left footed player, he is capable on his right foot and has deputised on multiple occasions in the striker’s role. He doesn’t have the silkiest first touch and won’t win too may headers but, his physical output in terms of running and pressing seem to make him a perfect fit for Howe’s style of football. He also offers a different set of skills to Jacob Murphy so, in games where one player isn’t working, a switch between Mbeumo and Murphy may help unlock stubborn defences. Thomas Frank admitted they would listen to offers for Mbeumo and the rumoured fee would be in the region of £60 million. When you see comparable players like Cunha with a release clause of about this figure, then it feels very much like a deal worth making.

Antoine Semenyo

Antoine Semenyo has been one of my favourite players in the Premier League for a little while now. He is such a natural player (statistically he’s the most 2 footed player in the Premier League) that he looks comfortable wherever he plays. You will primarily see him lined up on either the left or right wing, but I have also seen him perform well up front and a little deeper in a number 8 role. He’s an absolute monster of a man too, one of the few players I’ve seen completely dominate Tino Livramento this season.

He doesn’t chip in with as many goals and assists as Bryan Mbeumo, who does have the advantage of being Brentford’s penalty taker, but when you watch Bournemouth, he is usually involved in the build up to most of their goals. One of the reasons I would have him second on my list is because I feel Bournemouth are likely to drive a hard bargain for Semenyo given the other departures they will face this summer. A fee similar to Mbeumo would feel sensible given they are the same age but, the fact that Huijsen has agreed to join Real Madrid and Liverpool seem certain to sign Kerkez, Bournemouth would be loathed to lose all 3 of their best players this summer. I feel they could well push for a fee in excess of £70 million which isn’t necessarily smart business, unless you can save money elsewhere.

Tyler Dibling

Unlike Semenyo and Mbeumo, Tyler Dibling is very much a work in progress. It is hard to look at Southampton’s 24/25 Premier League campaign as anything other than disastrous however, the performances of the 19-year-old Dibling have been one of the few bright spots. He is an infectious dribbler who possesses excellent size and strength for one still in their teens. Initial reports suggested that the Saints would demand £100 million for their talented youngster. These figures have tumbled down to about £55 million in recent weeks but even this feels quite steep for a player who has only made 34 senior appearances in their career.

A move for Dibling would certainly be the least preferable of the options I have presented but, he would be protected unrealistic expectations because of the recent form of Jacob Murphy. If we could work out a performance bonus related deal with Southampton which brings the initial outlay down somewhat, I’ve no doubt how would be able to mould Dibling into a superstar whose value would grow immeasurably.

CB

Marc Guehi

After last summer’s protracted pursuit of Marc Guehi, it is no surprise that he features at the top of the list of defensive recruits. Truth be told I imagine Dean Huijsen was probably top of everyone’s list until Real Madrid secured his services. Still, despite a shaky start to his season, likely a result of the transfer speculation, Guehi quietly put together another impressive season.

Crystal Palace’s late season upturn in form (apart from their appearance at St James’) earned them the first trophy in the club’s history and Guehi was pivotal in that. The qualities that attracted Howe to him last summer remain the same and at 24 he is still yet to reach his peak. He is comfortable of both feet and as such should be able to excel on either side of a centre back pairing. Hopefully lessons have been learned from last years dealings with Steve Parish, and we can act swiftly to secure Guehi’s signature.

Jarell Quansah

Quansah’s name first emerged as a serious transfer target in the wake to last summer’s PSR scramble.

Allegedly, the club explored a player plus cash deal for Anthony Gordon before being able to offload Minteh and Anderson. How much truth there is in that story remains to be seen but what does seem to have held some truth is the interest in Quansah.

He barely featured in the first half of the season, after being hooked against Ipswich in the opener. However, as the season progressed and Liverpool were stretched, he began to feature in a variety of roles. Primarily Quansah is a central defender, and at 6’3” and only 22 years old he has got bags of potential to develop from the competent Premier League Defender he is currently. He also performed competently at right back, although he did get hung out to dry a little in the cup final against a marauding Barnes and Livramento. Quansah wouldn’t step straight into our starting line-up but given the advancing age of our defence I imagine his opportunities to force his way into the starting line-up would be ample.

ST

Jonathan David

The Canada international has been one of the most talked about strikers in Europe for the past few transfer windows.

This chatter certainly hasn’t died down given his contract is expiring in June. While he is the premier option available this summer and would be my number one target, I feel we may struggle to convince him to join the club while Isak is here.

Newcastle are in many ways presented with the same challenge that Spurs faced during the time Harry Kane was at the North London club. Isak is the very clear starter and displacing him from the team is virtually impossible when he is fit. As a result, it becomes very difficult to persuade a top-level striker to come into the club when realistically they are not going to get the game time. Spurs had to make do with utilising veteran players like Llorente or shifting Son out of position to fill in for Kane when he wasn’t available. It is for this reason I think the club will aggressively pursue Mbeumo, as he would be able act as Newcastle’s equivalent of Son.

Despite all this if we were able to convince a player like David to join it would be a huge coup for the club. He has proven Champions League pedigree and has scored prolifically for several years now. Isak has missed games in every season he’s been at the club so maybe you could use this fact to sell the prospect of starting games to a player like David. He’s possibly the most in demand free-agent this summer, the list of teams linked to him grows each day, so any move would have to be an imminent one.

Four years ago, being able to sign the Everton forward on a free would have been the biggest transfer story of the summer.

Unfortunately, for the Sheffield native, he had 2 seasons virtually written off to injury and then another 2 blighted by indifferent form.

Given that we have a clear first choice up top, giving a player with proven Premier League goalscoring credentials the chance to rebuild his reputation might not be a terrible idea. Calvert-Lewin does possess a very different skill set to Isak, he is one of the most effective strikers in the air in the league and still possesses ample pace despite his injuries of the past few years. If you can agree a contract that works for both parties, then Calvert-Lewin could be an astute signing.

Liam Delap

To hit double figures in what was a very poor Ipswich team shows that Liam Delap is a striker with real promise. Ever since the news broke regarding his release clause of around £30 million, Delap has been one of the most talked about transfers of the summer. On the face of it the price tag seems quite reasonable for a young English striker. However, given that this year is the first time Delap has hit double figures in his fledgling career and that we have another young striker who will be desperate for opportunities next season, then maybe that price tag should draw some caution.

His recent appearances have been far below his best this season, and while his physical attributes are not in question, the drop off in his form may suggest he needs more time to develop his mental strength. During Ipswich’s lost at St James’ Park towards the end of the season he offered very little other than charging around aimlessly at high speed, often resulting in conceding a foul. If we have the money available in the budget to sign him alongside Mbeumo and Guehi then by all means, but committing £30 million would only be sensible once they’re done deals. With news emerging that he looks destined for Chelsea we’ll probably never know if he would be a good fit.

GK

James Trafford

The Burnley number 1 is another player who seems to have been a long time on the radar for Newcastle Utd. After a series of loans to the EFL, Trafford sealed a move to Burnley in 2023 after starring the 2023 u21 European Championships for England. His first season at Burnley wasn’t a stellar one, their style of play often left Trafford exposed and after a number of high-profile errors he ended up being dropped towards the end of the season.

Since returning to the Championship, he has rebuilt his confidence and reputation. He equalled the EFL record for clean sheets in a season in 24/45 with a mind-blowing 29 blanks in 45 appearances. At 6’6” he is a commanding presence in the box although he isn’t necessarily as strong at stopping crosses as you might expect but, he is a clear upgrade on our current keepers when it comes to his ease on the ball.

Trafford has a couple of years left on his contract at Burnley and they won’t want to let him go easily but unless they tie him down to a new deal over the summer the transfer fee should be south of £30 million. Burnley will no doubt want to strengthen ahead of their return to the Premier League so I’m sure there will be a deal to be done if we are serious about this one.

Joan Garcia

The 24-year-old Spaniard is the second player in this discussion that features despite not fitting my criteria. However, due to the volume of chatter around a potential move he warrants inclusion on this list. Garcia has stood out in his performances this season, with a number of high profile saves. He is decent with the ball at his feet too despite Espanyol not being a particularly possession based side.

His release clause is reported to be £21 million, which in the current market is pretty reasonable for a first-choice keeper. There are two stumbling blocks for any deal with Garcia. First is the reported interest from Espanyol’s rivals Barcelona who may be looking to freshen up their keepers this summer. The second is his lack of Premier League experience and the fact he isn’t used to playing a sweeping role. One of the main reasons Nick Pope has been first choice during his time at Newcastle is how decisive he is at coming off his line. Garcia hasn’t been asked to do this as regularly for Espanyol and given that we have seen keepers who have starred in other leagues struggle in the Premier League there is an element of risk involved.

Emi Martinez

Regardless of your opinion of the Aston Villa and Argentina number one’s antics in winding up opposition, there is little denying he has been one of the best keepers in the world for a few years now. This one isn’t a particularly likely deal, and at 32 he certainly isn’t a long-term player, but given the reports surrounding Villa’s PSR issues and the fact that Martinez may be moved on to ese these he has to be at least worth a look.

I suspect he will end up in Saudi Arabia or maybe even at Man Utd but he would be an upgrade, even if a short term one, on our current crop of keepers. Probably the biggest negative would be an overinflated fee Villa would likely demand to acquire his services.

Fraser Forster

I imagine this one will have a lot of people scratching their heads but stay with me for a moment.

One of the wrinkles of European competition is that we can only get a full 25-man squad of players if we have players who were trained at the club. Fraser Forster spent the early days of his career battling Tim Krul to earn the right to be Newcastle’s successor to Given and Harper. It was a battle he ultimately lost but the years he spent at the club make him an ideal candidate to return now. In an ideal world, if we were able to sign Forster this summer as a free agent, he would never play a game but, having a keeper of his experience available to help a young keeper like Trafford or Garcia would be a massive plus. He would effectively be replacing John Ruddy’s role in the squad, so I see little reason not to sign him if he is open to the move.

Kyle Walker-Peters

Not a glamorous signing but one who would provide decent cover at either full-back position. At 28 years of age, he’s not likely to improve a great deal but the former Spurs and Southampton man is available on a free this summer and would plug a hole in the squad if we were to lose either Trippier or Targett.

He has represented England at every level and featured in the Champions League for Spurs so comes with valuable experience. With Tino Livramento and Lewis Hall very much first choice in the fullback areas being able to have someone with the experience and flexibility of Walker-Peters in the squad allows you to push the envelope in other positions.

Tariq Lamptey

A few years ago, Lamptey was one of the most hyped young full-backs in the league. The diminutive wide man, who is yet another product of Chelsea’s academy, has seen his career stunted by injury in recent years. The Ghana internation doesn’t turn 25 until September so still has plenty of room for growth if he can find a way to avoid the niggling injuries he has been plagued by. If we were to lose Kieran Tripper, Lamptey would be a very good back-up to Livramento, and his attacking instincts also allow him to provide cover for the right-wing position. Available on a free this summer, I think signing Lamptey would be a smart bit of business.

CM

Douglas Luiz

The Brazil international moved to Juventus last summer for close to £45 million, partly to aid Villa’s PSR issues. He has only featured 19 times in the league this season for the Old Lady and rumours have been rife of a return to the Premier league.

Luiz is comfortable in either a number 6 or number 8 role and would be excellent competition or a squad rotation option for any of our midfielders. His performance numbers are impressive across the board, an accomplished passer, wins plenty of duels, and unlike many of our current midfield crop he is dangerous when shooting from long range. If the rumours are true regarding his desire to leave Juve, and their openness to letting him go, then I would jump Luiz up to one of my top targets for the summer.

Jacob Ramsey

In this long list of potential transfer targets, Jacob Ramsey is another who has seen numerous links with a move to the North East. Ramsey has featured regularly for Villa for the past few years racking up over 100 appearances. An injury hit 23/24 season, and the emergence of Morgan Rogers, has seen his appearances and goal contributions decline over the past 2 seasons. However, at only 24 he has plenty of time to continue to develop. Ramsey also gives an element of positional flexibility being able to operate centrally and on the left wing.

If the club were to receive an offer for Joe Willock this summer which was too good to turn down, Ramsey would be able to fit in seamlessly to a similar role on the pitch.

Summary

This list was by no means exhaustive, and it obviously overlooks plenty of talent from around Europe, but hopefully the transfer picture for this summer seems a little clearer. It seems likely that Newcastle will be operating with a budget of over £100 million this summer. If you look at the net transfer spend from 21/22 as a guide for what we may be able to spend, which won’t be part of the next PSR calculation, you will see we had a net spend of about £110 million. Factor in participation in the Champions League and improved sponsorship and commercial deals we now have in place I would take a stab at £130 million as a ballpark figure.

I think with departures you will be able to generate an additional £30-40 million, setting a budget roughly around the £160 million mark. This is a very crude estimation before you jump on my maths. It doesn’t consider amortisation of transfer fees and the implications of this. For example, selling Odysseas for £10 million would see us left with about £6 million on the balance sheet. On the other hand, selling Sean Longstaff will allow you to put the entire transfer sheet straight into the pot because he’s an academy graduate. Trying to decipher the exact budget is a whole other article so for my sanity we’ll set the spend at £165 million. This happens to be a very convenient total when it comes to my ideal summer incomings below.

I think this is a realistic list, the only question mark being Douglas Luiz and the figures involved in a potential deal there. I’ve seen £30 million thrown around but given they spent £45 million this may be too low an estimate. Regardless there may be a deal to be done there utilising a loan with an obligation to buy. Structuring a deal this way should allow you to shift the extra outlay to next season’s transfer budget and could even open funds for additional purchases this summer. If we were able to pull off these transfers our squad heading into next season would look like this.

The players highlighted blue are new additions to the squad and those in yellow would be ineligible for Europe based on the squad rules. It is possible we may be able to include Lewis Hall in our List B players, the wording on squad rules from UEFA is a little murky. If we are able to do this, that would allow an additional player to be included in the Champions League Squad.

It’s a squad that is better in quality than the one we have had this year (with maybe the exception of RB), with at least 2 players in every position and tactical and positional flexibility throughout.

We’d be sailing close to the wind from a PSR standpoint again after this season but almost all these signings give you multiple years of service and allow you to be a little more reserved next summer if you need to be.

I hope you’ve enjoyed my extensive ramblings and please drop a comment on how you might do things differently.