Saturday Football Tips: Cards expected at the Emirates with 22/1 double worth a chance | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back again with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back again to talk about his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Arsenal v Southampton (Sat, 15:00)

Kai Havertz is due a card. It's now 17 fouls in his eight starts this season, with another three versus PSG in midweek, but despite a stray elbow, he somehow avoided a caution. I have to back him given he's been booked in six of his last 13 home starts.

This is a clash between top end and the bottom end of the table with Southampton having been beaten in five of their six games and just a point to their name. So with both sides keen to pick up points in their respective battles, this could be a feisty affair, especially when you consider both Arsenal and Southampton rank joint 6th for fouls committed.

The referee is Tony Harrington who has already shown 22 cards across his first four league games this season - a whopping 5.5 per-game.

Given the potential for fouls, the referee producing cards and lining up against a direct opponent, there looks to be another bet or two here. Havertz will likely to start upfront, so he'll likely come into battle with Taylor Harwood-Bellis at centre-back for Southampton who's averaging the 2nd most fouls per-game for the Saints with 1.7.

As a result he's already picked up two bookings in his five starts. Going further back to last season, against the Championship top six, his record increases to five cards in his last 16 starts. The step up in class has definitely seen an increased output in the fouls department with Harwood-Bellis only averaging 0.6 fouls per-game last season compared to his 1.7 in 24/25.

Backing the double at 22/1 is also a must bet considering they are up against each other and the potential for confrontations on top of all the fouling.

Brentford v Wolves (Sat, 15:00)

The fixture list has been unkind to Wolves to start this season with already having to face five of last season's top seven, and they finished last season having to play all three of Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool in their final six fixtures. As a result of this, Wolves have lost 8 of their last 9 Premier League matches and further back it's 13 defeats in 18 (72%).

Brentford themselves have had to face all of Man City, Liverpool and Tottenham away from home so all their points have been on home turf this season with two wins and a draw. However, it's just five wins in their last 21 games (24%) - three coming v relegated or newly promoted sides - so backing Brentford to win is not a straight forward bet at 1/1.

Instead back Brentford to score over 1.5 goals at similar odds. Wolves have conceded at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches and longer-term 12 of their last 16 (75%).

Leicester v Bournemouth (Sat, 15:00)

Leicester's return to the Premier League still sees them searching for their first win despite scoring in every game. At the other end of the pitch, they've also conceded in every game so far. Bournemouth have started the season with four of their six matches seeing both teams to score, with no shame at firing blanks in games v Liverpool and Chelsea.

Last season 68% of their away matches saw both teams score, with Bournemouth failing to score in just two away games across the course of the whole season. Leicester can be got at very easily having conceded the most shots in the league so far with 19.2 per-game and as a result the worst expected goals against figures with 16.3xG.

Four of Leicester's six games have seen over 2.5 goals so far with 20 goals (3.33 per-game). Going back to the beginning of the last season, 17 of Bournemouth's last 22 away games have seen three or more goals (77%).

Now read the Premier League Opta stats bets here!

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