Saturday Football Tips: Take 16/1 card punt in 'Grenal' derby | OneFootball

Internacional v GremioSaturday 19 October, 20:00

There's another huge derby in Brazil on Saturday - long-term readers will know I love backing cards in such affairs.

Quite how many of those are left after a terrible week for this column is open to question but derby cards has been a successful long-term strategy for me over the years so I'm sticking to the plan.

There have been at least 70 booking points in 18 of the last 29 meetings of this cross-city Porto Alegre affair - that's 10 for a yellow and 25 for a red to the uninitiated.

The referee appointment is also encouraging for the chance of cards.

Bruno Arleu de Araujo is one of Serie A's leading carders this season, averaging 6.29 yellows per game, a figure which puts him second in the list of the competition's regular officials (those to have taken charge of 7+ games). He's also shown five reds in his 14 matches.

Sadly, most markets seem clued up n terms of the likelihood of cards - over

6.5 is a 4/7 shot.

Neither are chances being taken on walking card machine Walter Kannemann. The Germio centre-back has been carded in 15 of 31 games this season, plus 10 of 19 against Inter over the years. He's just 4/6 for another here.

However, potential value remains, mainly with Inter players - they have the second-highest foul count in Serie A.The two who stand out are Fernando and Rafael Santos Borre.

Former Man City midfielder Fernando has picked up seven cards in 21 starts since his move from Sevilla earlier this year, with one of those coming in the reverse fixture. He's 21/10 in the player-card market.

As for Colombian forward Borre, he's been booked in six of 20 this season and can be backed at 23/10.

The problem is both men are recovering from injuries and manager Roger Machado has admitted they may only return as substitutes. That's a massive alarm bell for me at this stage given what happened last night when one of my selections came on for five minutes.

Bet: Both teams to have a red card

Certainly both are worth considering if you are able to wait for the team news, sadly not a luxury I have.

Instead, I'm going to take a punt on a bet of statistical value and that's both teams to have a red card at 16/1.

This is something that's occurred in five of the last 19 'Grenal' matches.

We've got a card-happy ref - one taking charge of his first Porto Alegre derby - while both teams have much at stake.

Inter are chasing a spot in the Copa Libertadores, while Gremio are also on the cut line for a Copa Sudamericana berth, although arguably of greater concern will be the fact they are only four points above the relegation zone.

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