Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at Everton and Southampton and a huge 50/1 bet at Bournemouth | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

Everton v West Ham (Saturday, 15:00)

With both these sides locked on 33 points, it means they are both 16 points clear of the relegation zone with only 10 games remaining. Safety should be assured which is reflected in the odds for both sides to go down at a huge 300/1. With both six points off eleventh, they should be looking up the table and with the pressure off I hoping it should be a relatively open game.

Under new management, both sides' fortunes have improved. At Everton, they were just one point above the drop zone when David Moyes was appointed in January and since then they have collected the fourth most points in the league with just one defeat in nine. Graham Potter was appointed just two days before Moyes with West Ham only seven points clear of the relegation zone. He's won three of his eight games in charge, but crucially stopped the defence from being a sieve. Before he arrived, West Ham had conceded 39 goals in 20 games (1.95 per-game), the fourth worst in the league. Under Potter, they've conceded nine goals (1.13 per-game), the joint fourth best in the league.

And despite six of West Ham's last seven matches having seen under 2.5 goals, it's a pro goals bet I want to be with given we have such a low goal line at 2.0 and the league is averaging 2.99 goals-per-game - aka it's an over 2.5 goals league. I backed the same bet last week when Everton travelled to Wolves and have to say I was very disappointed to only get a push with two first-half goals! I'm not deterred though with Everton's games under Moyes having seen 26 goals at an average of 2.89 per-game. Despite West Ham's low scoring games of late, what has been positive is their ability to find the net on the road having scored in 12 of 13 away games. We could back both teams to score at bigger price at 9/10 but despite technically needing one fewer goal to get paid out, my concern is always if one team doesn't show up and the other side wins to nil. 1-0 both bets lose but with 2-0, over 2.0 goals is at least get us our money back, and in betting we should always think about being risk averse.

Southampton v Wolves (Saturday, 15:00)

Regular readers of this column will know I've love backing Over 2.5 goals bets this season and what a fantastic matchup we have here for it. First up a Southampton side that have lost 23 of 28 Premier League games this season and still only have nine points. A reminder they still need three points to surpass the worst ever team in the league in Derby County who got 11 points in the 2007/08 season! And it looks a very difficult task if they're going to keep conceding three goals every game! Something they've now achieved in eight of their last nine matches. It means that their last 10 matches have seen over 2.5 goals winners! At the St. Mary's Stadium it's been just as much fun this season with nine of their 13 games seeing three or more goals.

Wolves' matches have the best Over 2.5 goals strike rate in the league with 71% yet we're still getting a goal line of 2.5! 20 of their 28 games this season have seen this bet win. And away from home this strike rate increases to 79% with 11 of their 14 matches having three or more goals! The one negative here is the absence of Wolves' top scorer in Matheus Cunha through suspension but in the three games he's missed this season there's been eight goals and I'm always confident in any team that faces this porous Southampton defence.

Bournemouth v Brentford (Saturday, 17:30)

Two of my favourite teams for goals and entertainment meet on Saturday evening but understandably Over 2.5 goals is just 2/5. The home side are priced at just 7/10 but I'm not confident it's going to as straight forward as those odds possibly suggest given the 59% implied probability.  Brentford have scored at least two goals in their last four matches against Bournemouth in all competitions so this will hold no fear for them.

Often in betting you will have a gut feel about a price and looking down the odds for this game this bet just massively stood out for two players with double figure goal hauls this season: Justin Kluivert & Yoane Wissa to have two+ shots on target each & each to be fouled two+ times at 50/1. It looks a huge price for two dangerman than don't even have to score.

Justin Kluivert is averaging 1.0 shots-on-target per-game whilst in the 20 matches he's played 60+ minutes in the #10 role, he's being fouled 1.0 times per-game. Yoane Wissa meanwhile tops Brentford's stats for both shots-on-target with 1.2 per-game and is also their most fouled player at 1.4 times per-game. We're not asking for much more on their averages to hit a 50/1 bet. In the reverse fixture which Brentford won 3-2, Wissa had two shots-on-target and was fouled twice, whilst Kluivert, who was deployed on the left rather than his usual #10 position, had one shot-on-target and was fouled once.

This looks a great bet to get behind as the TV game for Saturday night football.

Now read more Premier League tips here!

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