Saturday Premier League Tips: Back goals at the City Ground and Portman Road, whilst take on Everton at odds on | OneFootball

English Premier League

Stinch is back with his best Premier League bets on Saturday

Odds compiler and football tipster Mark Stinchcombe is back to recommend his best bets in the Premier League on Saturday...

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Nottingham Forest v Brighton (Saturday, 12:30)

I haven't been able to get Nottingham Forest right this season. I backed them last week to avoid defeat at Bournemouth (despite the fact it's a Bournemouth side I'd previously sided with at both Newcastle and Chelsea with success), I backed Liverpool to beat them and Mats Selz turned into prime Gianlugi Buffon and I also sided with them as underdog against an out-of-form Newcastle in November only to lose that one too. But that's not going to stop me getting involved again here! And I'm avoiding the 1X2 market anyway.

I want to back Over 2.5 goals at the prices considering it's priced as a 50-50 shot. Ten of Forest's last 15 Premier League games have seen three or more goals (67%) and Brighton under Fabian Hürzeler have been a magnet for goals like the good old days under Roberto De Zerbi. Against Premier League opposition, Brighton's matches have seen 76 goals in 25 games, an average of 3.04 per-game. Eight of their 12 away games have seen over 2.5 goals  and overall 15 of their last 22 games have seen three plus goals (68%).

The reverse fixture finished 2-2 and Brighton's last two visits to the City Ground saw five and four goals. We're only asking for three here.

Ipswich v Southampton (Saturday, 15:00)

The bottom two sides do battle here at Portman Road with both sides desperate for points. Nineteenth place Ipswich are an agonising one point from safety while 20th Southampton are 11 points adrift with seemingly nothing to lose at this stage.

The main issue with both sides struggles this season is the sheer amount of goals they are conceding. Southampton have shipped the most with 53 in their 23 games - more than two  a game (2.30) and Ipswich have conceded 47 in the same amount of matches - again more than two a game (2.04). The Saints have been really bad of late conceding at least three goals in their last four matches. The most alarming thing about both sides is that based on expected goals they both should have conceded more. Southampton are over achieving by +9.84 goals and Ipswich by +6.70 meaning both their matches could have seen more goals.

Given the desperate issues of both sides at the back it's goals I want to side with again. Seven of Ipswich's last 10 games have seen over 2.5 goals and 10 of Southampton's last 15 have seen three plus goals. Collectively both sides have kept just four clean sheets in 46 games and it's hard to see either side keeping one any time soon which should have us significantly on our way to three goals here.

Everton v Leicester City (Saturday, 15:00)

David Moyes has walked back into Everton and won two straight matches of three but I can't have them at 4/5 to win again here. They've won just five of 22 games all season - just 23% - but their odds here suggest they have a 56% chance of winning. They've scored the second fewest goals all season - just 19 - fewer than one per-game on average - and will be without striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin who leads the scoring charts for Everton since the beginning of last season, after he picked up a hamstring injury last weekend.

Ruud van Nistelrooy put an end to Leicester's losing streak with a shock 2-1 win from behind at Tottenham last weekend. It was enough to lift the Foxes out of the relegation zone and a point clear of the drop meaning they are just a place below the hosts, yet Everton are rated as having a better chance than 50% of winning.

Given the odds, we can actually back Leicester +0.75 as the most competitive market meaning half our bet is on Leicester to avoid defeat and the other half on Leicester +1.0 goal. Even if the Foxes lose by a goal, we will only lose half our bet, meaning Leicester avoiding defeat will see a full return. Everton have won just two games by more than a goal this season, both against sides in the relegation zone.

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