Stoke City: Mark Robins' gameplan v Derby County is key - one particular approach will lead to relegation | OneFootball

The Potters' Championship fate is in their own hands against the Rams on Saturday afternoon

Stoke City face a date with destiny against Derby County this weekend, in the club's biggest game since a similar situation panned out in 2018 against Crystal Palace, and Mark Robins has to get his gameplan right in order to save the Potters from a surprise relegation to League One.

Stoke's campaign has petered out in the last two weeks to leave them still at risk of relegation on the final day of the Championship campaign this Saturday as they take on fellow strugglers Derby at Pride Park. The Potters have not been this close to relegation since they were sent down to the second-tier against Crystal Palace nearly seven years ago.

While it would take an unlikely turn of events for them to slip into the bottom three after all is said and done, experienced boss Robins has to hold his nerve and let his side play their usual game at Pride Park in order to secure their survival for another season.

Stoke have had a turbulent season - their current situation has been entirely avoidable

The Potters headed into this season with the hope that Steven Schumacher would be the right man to take them forward in the Championship, but he was given little time to work with what he had and was sacked in mid-September after the first five league games of the season, to the surprise of many fans and neutrals alike.

The club took a risk in appointing rookie Spanish head-coach Narcis Pelach to take the reins, and their gamble failed dramatically as he lasted all of three months at the helm and was relieved of his duties in December following just three wins in his 19 games in charge.

Stoke needed to turn to someone with experience and nous after the failure of Pelach, and so in came ex-Coventry boss Robins at the turn of the year, who was sacked by the Sky Blues in November despite taking them from League Two to the Championship and then within a penalty shootout of the top-flight in the previous seven years.

The 55-year-old has certainly been able to steady the ship in ST4, and the Potters went on an impressive run of three wins and two draws in five games between late March and mid-April to move well away from the bottom three, but their recent consecutive losses and other clubs picking up unlikely points has seen them still in with a chance of being relegated from the Championship against Derby.

Stoke need just one point to avoid the drop at Pride Park, but a loss could see them down if other results do not go their way. The last time they faced a similar situation of being relegated after a loss was against Palace in 2018, as Paul Lambert was unable to help his side avoid a 2-1 defeat at the bet365 Stadium and the Potters dropped into the Championship for the first time in ten years.

Seven years on, and Stoke are yet to finish in the top-half of the second-tier, and they have been much closer to dropping into League One than they have been returning to the top-flight. It would be, in no uncertain terms, a complete disaster for the club to be relegated this weekend, and so Robins has to get his gameplan correct against the Rams in order to stave off the drop.

Stoke must play their normal game against Derby - protecting a point could see them relegated

Lots of the pre-match focus ahead of this weekend is set to be on the Rams, as they have been able to rapidly climb the table since John Eustace was appointed as head-coach in February, and could seal safety against Stoke despite looking all-but-down for large parts of the campaign.

With that said, it almost feels as if Stoke's chances of going down are being underestimated by many, including the statisticians at Opta, who place their chances of relegation at just 1.38% ahead of the clash.

Robins' side's form has dwindled recently, with losses in each of their last two games, albeit those were against promotion-chasing Leeds and Sheffield United, while key players like Junior Tchamadeu and Ben Pearson could be unavailable, with no adequate replacements to come in and have as big an impact on the team as each player.

Stoke, though, can take solace from their last few outings against struggling teams while on the road, after they battled back from a goal down to take a draw against Preston North End earlier this month, then followed that up with a vital 1-0 win against Cardiff City two weeks later.

They have also beaten Hull City and Plymouth Argyle away from home this season, so despite their overall struggles, the team is clearly confident about their chances of an away result against similarly-ranked teams, which Derby are, as they sit just one place and one point below them heading into Saturday's game.

The key to achieving survival by themselves at Pride Park on Saturday will be in how Mark Robins sets his side up from minute one. Unlike Stoke, Derby could need a win to stay up based on how Hull, Preston and Luton Town are getting on at Portsmouth, West Brom and Bristol City respectively.

Given how the Potters completely fell apart in the opening stages of their recent 6-0 loss against Leeds, and were five down inside the first-half at Elland Road, it seems fair to assume that Eustace will tell his Rams side to go at their visitors from the off, with the hope of going a couple of goals up to, in turn, effectively guarantee their survival early on.

Stoke have to hold firm, but not in a way that invites pressure by sitting too deep or playing in a different way to how they have done in those aforementioned away games against teams in the bottom-half.

Robins must not play an unusual five-at-the-back, he should not deploy two holding midfielders, and he simply has to tell his team to stay calm and play their game, so as to not be dictated by what the opposition will inevitably want to do. He has often set his side up in a 4-3-3 formation in recent months, and Saturday should be no different.

It is easy to say, on a whim, how the Potters should set up tactically this weekend, but the majority of the game will be a mental battle between two teams that should be fighting for their lives to avoid relegation.

However, the truth is that Stoke supporters have not seen a whole lot of fight from this group of players throughout the campaign, and so nerves are completely understandable, despite the fact that they hold the best position in the table out of all the teams that could possibly go down.

Stoke's best-case scenario on Saturday will be to have their fate decided elsewhere, as a loss for any one of Hull, Luton or Preston would see them safe by default, given that there is just one place in the bottom three that is yet to be decided, with Plymouth's poor goal difference surely too much to overcome in one game.

Whatever the outcome, the Potters' hierarchy need to take a real step back this summer to assess where they must improve for, not just next season, but the numerous years to come.

Stoke have been a shadow of their former selves for too long now, and something clearly needs to change at the top for the team to finally progress on the pitch, regardless of if they are in the Championship or League One.