Tottenham v Nottingham Forest: Elanga can fuel Forest win | OneFootball

English Premier League

Nuno Espirito Santo can get one over his former club

Nottingham Forest have wobbled lately but can get back on track at distracted Spurs on Monday night, says Dave Tindall. And don't forget to check out Mike Norman's Build Ups tip further down the page...

Tottenham v Nottingham ForestMonday 21 April, 20:00Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Spurs' season still alive

Tottenham have suffered a ludicrous 17 defeats from 32 Premier League matches so far this season - their most in a single campaign since 19 losses in 2003-04. Seven of those have come in front of their own fans although they've scored more goals at home than Arsenal. What a weird team.

Talking of the north London duo, both have semi-finals in Europe to look forward to, Tottenham booking their last-four place in the Europa League with a pretty gutsy 1-0 win away to Eintracht Frankfurt after they'd put themselves in a difficult position via a 1-1 draw at home.

Norwegians Bodø/Glimt await in the last four and Tottenham's performance in Germany showed that under-fire Ange Postecoglou can still get a tune out of his side and, just as importantly, the team are still playing for the manager.

Forest still need big finish

Nottingham Forest have had a fantastic season and looked the third best team behind Liverpool and Arsenal for a large chunk of it.

But back-to-back defeats against Aston Villa (2-1 away) and Everton (1-0 at home) have come at just the wrong time. The next six games are now massive.

Newcastle came flying past them by thumping Crystal Palace in midweek and Manchester City, Chelsea and Villa are all major threats to Forest's hopes of a Champions League spot.

Nuno's side can complete double

Forest haven't done the league double over Spurs since 1996-7 but they're in position to do so here having won the reverse fixture 1-0 at the City Ground thanks to Anthony Elanga's 28th-minute winner on Boxing Day.

That ended a run of six straight victories for Tottenham against Forest.

For this one, Tottenham are 29/20 for the win, with Nottingham Forest 13/8 and The Draw 13/5.

Spurs have drawn just four of their 32 Premier League fixtures this season which fits into the perception that they can either be pretty good or really hopeless.

Going into the weekend, only Liverpool had won more away games than Forest's tally of eight and this looks exactly the type of game Nuno Espirito Santo's team can win. Spurs boss possesssion and try to push forward but Forest hurt them on the break.

The Portuguese boss will have that added edge of wanting to put one over the club that got rid of him.

Tottenham have lost their last two games that followed Europa League matches and although you could find other facts to coincide with Spurs defeats given the sheer volume of them, it makes sense.

Postecoglou's team have never been in danger of relegation and European football next season via the league vanished a long time ago. So, all the eggs have gone into one basket. They've been on it in the Europa League but, as they drift around in no-man's land, have struggled to get themselves up for Premier League games.

Forest want this more and they're the bet.

Tottenham have at least managed to net in five of their last six home defeats so there's logic in backing Forest to win and both teams scoring at 7/2.

Elanga and Johnson can make a mark

I'll also try a Bet Builder on two players who have been in the goals.

Firstly, let's go back to the man who decided the first meeting, Anthony Elanga.

Chris Wood has been Forest's goal-getter for most of the season but Elanga has come up trumps recently.

The Swede scored twice in a 4-2 win at Ipswich and then banked the only goal of the game in the home victory over Manchester United.

Between those games he netted against Northern Ireland so the winger has four goals in his last seven games. He's 10/3 to score here.

For Tottenham, Brennan Johnson perhaps doesn't get the credit he deserves as a goalscorer.

The forward has fired home 18 goals in 51 games for Tottenham and Wales so that's better than 1-in-3 over an extended stretch. He's 11/4 to score here.

A goalscorer double combined with a Forest win gives us some tasty odds on the Bet Builder.

Recommended bets

1pt - Back Nottingham Forest to Win and BTTS @ 7/2

0.5pts - Back Anthony Elanga and Brennan Johnson both to Score and Forest to Win @ 35/1

Mike Norman's Build Ups Tip:

Hudson-Odoi to have More Shots on Target than Gibbs-White @ 11/5

Nottingham Forest appear to have gone off the boil slightly in recent weeks with back-to-back defeats hampering their hopes of finishing in the top five and qualifying for next season's Champions League. But tonight they face a Tottenham team who literally have nothing to play for apart from keeping players fit and fresh for next week's Europa League semi-final.

So Forest will fancy their chances this evening, and they'll surely pose an attacking threat and register a decent amount of shots on target in north London.

Chris Wood is likely to start but he could be worth taking on in a Shots on Target Match Up given his recent injury which will most likely mean he won't play the full 90 minutes, though admittedly, even if he plays just 60 minutes he could register enough shots on target in that spell to ruin any bet, so I'm happy to swerve him here.

The Match Up I do like in terms of Shots on Target is Morgan Gibbs-White v Callum Hudson-Odoi, and it's only because on recent form, there's only one man to back, and especially so given he's the outsider of the pair.

That man is Hudson-Odoi who is 11/5 to register More Shots on Target than Gibbs-White, who can be backed at 13/8. Remember if both players tie then your bet is settled as a loser.

Even if we look at the Premier League season as a whole Hudson-Odoi comes out slightly better. He's registered 17 shots on target in 2,087 minutes of football for an average of one SoT every 122 minutes. Gibbs-White has registered 18 shots on target in 2,305 minutes of football for an average of one SoT every 128 minutes. Not much between them admittedly, but CHO has the edge.

But it's recent form that interests me and makes Hudson-Odoi the bet tonight at the prices.

The 24-year-old has registered nine shots on target in his last nine games, and that includes two per game against fellow top-five chasers Man City and Newcastle as well as one against champions elect Liverpool.

Gibbs-White meanwhile has managed just a single shot on target - that coming against lowly Everton - in his last six matches, and going further back he's managed just four in his last 12 games.

No matter how you weigh it up, the season as a whole or recent form Hudson-Odoi comes out on top, and by a huge margin in terms of recent matches, and I just can't for the life of me understand why he's the outsider in this Shots on Target Match Up.

Of course, anything can happen on the night and we're dealing here with two players who average less than one shot on target per game, so this match up could easily be won 1-0 by either player, but at the prices and on recent form I have to back Hudson-Odoi.

Staked: 71.50pts

Returned: 53.67pts

P/L: -17.83pts

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