Transfer Market Metrics Dissects Hugo Larsson Amid Liverpool Links | OneFootball

Hugo Larsson to Liverpool? What Transfer Market Metrics Revealed

Intriguing Prospect from the Bundesliga

On the latest episode of Transfer Market Metrics for Anfield Index, host Dave Davis and data analyst Phil Barter (‘Barts’) dissected a name generating plenty of buzz around Europe — Hugo Larsson. The 20-year-old Swedish international midfielder is currently at Eintracht Frankfurt and is reportedly catching the eyes of several top clubs, including Liverpool and Arsenal.

“Six goals and an assist this season, so seven goal contributions overall,” noted Dave, before explaining Larsson’s positional flexibility: “He’s played most of his games as an eight, but also a half dozen at six.”

That dual-role profile prompted a deeper dive from Barts, who laid out Larsson’s data-driven strengths and red flags with his usual precision.

Statistical Breakdown of Hugo Larsson

Barter began with availability and minutes played — a critical metric for any Liverpool midfield target. “Just short of 1,800 minutes this season. He’s probably going to top out at 2,000,” he explained, before adding that it’s not quite at the level expected for a first-team Liverpool midfielder. “He’s got the potential to do the load… but he’s not quite there at the moment.”

Defensively, the numbers present a mixed picture. “Clearances at the 42nd percentile — lower than you’d expect. Aerials at 32nd percentile — that’s low, especially if he’s to play the six.” However, Larsson shows quality in other areas. “Blocks at the 86th percentile and interceptions at the 70th — those are good signs,” said Barts, who added, “he’s avoiding the tackle, which can sometimes show better judgment.”

In possession, Larsson is tidy but not particularly progressive. “Progressive passes received — 47th percentile — suggests he’s not high up the pitch receiving between the lines,” explained Barts. “Passing completion is solid though, 87%, in the 70th percentile, which is exactly where we expect our midfielders.”

As for attacking output, Larsson offers flashes. “Non-penalty goals — 93rd percentile. That’s impressive considering he doesn’t get in the box often. But his shot-creating actions are at the 58th percentile. So there’s some promise, but he doesn’t create a lot.”

Liverpool Comparisons and Role Fit

To get a sense of where Larsson might slot in at Liverpool, Barter compared his metrics to those of Ryan Gravenberch and Alexis Mac Allister.

“Ryan is better overall — better at tackling, receiving progressive passes, and more of a carrier. That’s his game,” said Barts. “Compared to Mac? The profiles are quite similar. The peaks and troughs land in the same places, but Mac has more volume.”

He added an insightful analogy: “If you took Mac’s profile and put it in an air fryer to dehydrate it — you get Larsson. Everything’s reduced.”

That led to an important conclusion: “He looks the profile more of a 6-8 than an 8-6. But not the kind of six that’s going to dominate a game physically.”

Physically, Larsson doesn’t wow, but shows some upside. “Speed at 34km/h — he’s not slow. Distance covered at 244km is low for a midfielder, though. That’s not moving a lot. Suggests he’s quite disciplined and holds his position.”

The Price Tag Problem

Then comes the elephant in the room: the price. Larsson reportedly signed a new deal in October 2024, and Frankfurt — known for being tough negotiators — are expected to demand around £60 million.

“That’s the tough bit,” said Barts. “£60 million is a huge price for someone who’s not going to come in as a starter. You’ve got to remember, Gravenberch was around £30 million, Mac was £35 million, and even Szoboszlai’s release clause was €70 million, which translated to around £60 million.”

Dave summed it up perfectly: “It’s really difficult to see Liverpool paying that kind of money for a kid who’s not going to start.”

As Barts added, “If you’re going to spend north of £50 million, they’ve got to be a first-team player — someone who pushes a starter down to the bench.”

Final Thoughts

Larsson clearly has potential — good physical attributes, solid passing, and high-level defensive blocks and interceptions. But his limited attacking output, aerial weakness, and lower minutes make him a gamble at £60 million. “He might be one of those we look back on in a year and think, should have done that,” Dave mused. But for now, the verdict from Transfer Market Metrics is clear: interesting, but unlikely.