When can Liverpool win the Premier League title?

The Independent

·24 February 2025

When can Liverpool win the Premier League title?

Liverpool’s statement 2-0 win over Manchester City at the weekend has been hailed in some corners as the win that essentially wrapped up the 2024/25 Premier League title.

The result extended the Reds’ lead at the top of the league to 11 points with 11 games left to play, and though Arsenal have a game in hand, it does not look like Arne Slot’s side – who have lost just once all season – will relinquish such a sizeable lead.

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The Reds need just 26 points out of a possible 33, with Arsenal only able to obtain a maximum of 89 points – if they were to win all of their remaining 12 games, that is.

Liverpool fans may still be looking over their shoulders with some nerves, but the truth is that the club is edging towards another top-flight title – but when is the earliest that they could clinch number 20?

When could Liverpool win the Premier League?

There is potential for a title-decider to take place at Anfield, as Arsenal visit on 10 May in the third-from-last game of the season.

If both sides were to win both of their games from now to then, it would put Liverpool on 88 points and Arsenal on 80 – meaning that the Gunners would have to win to keep the title alive.

But while that scenario might hold some romance for fans and neutrals, it is more likely that the title will be decided before that.

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Salah has 25 goals and 16 assists across 27 games so far this season (Getty Images)

While Liverpool can afford to lose twice in the run-in, they have only lost once this season – way back in September against Nottingham Forest – and are averaging 2.37 points per game this season.

Conversely, Arsenal are averaging just 2.03 points per game, and have already lost three matches while drawing one more than Liverpool, with eight draws.

On paper, the earliest that the Reds could wrap up the title would be on 12 April, when they face West Ham – this is quite unlikely though, as Arsenal would have to lose all five of their games up to then (as well as Liverpool winning all of theirs).

What is a more realistic estimate?

Looking at those points per game statistics, it is currently ‘more’ likely that Liverpool will wrap up the title if they win against Chelsea in gameweek 35, which takes place on the weekend of 3 May.

Nevertheless, it could be earlier than that too, with Arsenal facing Nottingham Forest, Chelsea and Manchester United in the next few weeks.

At the same time, of Liverpool’s seven fixtures before 3 May, they only play one side in the top-half of the table (Fulham).

And with five of those matches taking place at Anfield, Liverpool could build a mathematically unassailable lead even before 3 May – with Chelsea and Arsenal potentially having to roll out the guard of honour for the Reds in May.

Remaining Premier League fixtures

Liverpool have just 11 matches left to play, while Arsenal have one more – which will take place on the weekend of 16 March, when the Reds are contesting the Carabao Cup final.

Each side’s remaining fixtures are as follows:

Liverpool

Newcastle (H) - 26 February

Southampton (H) - 8 March

Everton (H) - 2 April

Fulham (A) - 5 April

West Ham (H) - 12 April

Leicester (A) - 19 April

Tottenham (H) - 26 April

Chelsea (A) - 3 May

Arsenal (H) - 10 May

Brighton (A) - 18 May