5 reasons Dortmund will win Klassiker | OneFootball

5 reasons Borussia Dortmund will beat Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker

A strong recent record against Bayern Munich, the tactical wit of Niko Kovač and a habit of beating big-name opponents are just some of the reasons Borussia Dortmund can upset the odds to win at their great rivals. bundesliga.com explains...

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1) The tide has turned

For so long, Der Klassiker meant great hope but ultimately frustration for Dortmund - as they went on a sorry spell of 11 Klassiker encounters without a win between 2019 and November 2023, when a 4-0 humbling at home summed up their poor fortunes against their major rivals.

That made the trip to Munich last spring all the more special. A swift chase and finish from Karim Adeyemi on a sweeping Dortmund move sent them in front, and a superb late strike from Julian Ryerson secured a first away Klassiker win in 10 years.

A spectacular strike from Jamie Gittens may have been cancelled out by a Jamal Musiala header in the first Klassiker of the current season in December, but Bayern failed to restore bragging rights in the enduring rivalry. The current Dortmund squad can now travel to Munich with the knowledge of how to gain results against Bayern and without any need to fear their opponents' reputation.

Niko Kovač led Bayern Munich to the Bundesliga and DFB Cup double in 2018/19. (imago/Sven Simon)

2) Rising to the occasion

Dortmund's recent strong Klassiker run is part of a wider trend throughout the past two topsy-turvy seasons for the club. The stronger the opponent, the better Borussia are often likely to play.

They did not lose to Xabi Alonso's double-winning Bayer Leverkusen side in 2023/24, and have beaten both Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig this term. They can also count AC Milan, Newcastle (twice), Atlético Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain, Sporting Lisbon and Lille among their recent list of European scalps en route to the UEFA Champions League final last season and quarter-finals this time around.

Perhaps it's because they have numerous speedy attackers capable of pouncing on the break - Dortmund have hit more shots than any other Bundesliga side on transitions this season) - or maybe they just know how to step up a gear or two for a big match. In any case, the prospect of facing the league leaders will certainly not faze Dortmund.

3) Kovač can

The new Dortmund coach is renowned as a master tactician, and outmaneuvering Vincent Vincent Kompany in his first Klassiker in the Dortmund hot seat must surely come close to the top of his personal wishlist for the remainder of the season.

He knows just what the tie involves, having been on the other side of the divide as both a player and coach, leading Bayern to a 5-0 win in his only home Klassiker in charge of the Bavarians in April 2019.

Although a lot has changed in Munich since then, several players remain at the club from Kovač's Bayern squad including Joshua Kimmich, Leon Goretzka, Serge Gnabry and Kingsley Coman, meaning the Dortmund boss should have some very solid ideas of how to tackle a few key individual threats.

4) All to play for

The Bundesliga fixture computer has served up a treat by scheduling the second Klassiker of the season on Matchday 29 in mid-April.

With only five matches remaining after their trip to Munich, the encounter could be a pivotal one in the tight scramble for European qualification spots. With the Black-Yellows moving within five points of the top four after a thumping 4-1 win in Freiburg on Matchday 28, they are clearly in the mood to battle for every possible point in their bid to salvage a top-six finish.

Bayern are in desperate need of points for other reasons - namely, reclaiming the Bundesliga title from Leverkusen. With memories still fresh of being agonisingly pipped to the title on the final day of the 2022/23 season, Dortmund will relish the chance to take their revenge and dent their big rivals' title ambitions.

5) Beware the Champions League sandwich

The Klassiker falls into a week of fate for both sides, with Champions League quarter-finals against Inter Milan and Barcelona ahead for Bayern and Dortmund, respectively.

Having a league tie between two big European clashes is a notoriously difficult balancing act. Neither side managed that particularly well during their two legs in the last 16, with Dortmund losing 1-0 at home to Augsburg on Matchday 25 and a much-changed Bayern side beaten 3-2 in Munich by Bochum. That was no coincidence in Bayern's case, with all seven of their league defeats or draws this season coming immediately before or after a Champions League encounter.

The precise bearing the midweek European first legs will have on the match will be difficult to gauge, but Bayern were already experiencing somewhat of an injury crisis with Jamal Musiala the latest high-profile casualty. The fact the Bavarians will be managing the load in two competitions with a depleted squad is set to make the tie much closer than the league table suggests.

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