Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1

The Mag

·28 de octubre de 2024

Expected Goals stats tell the very real story after Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1

Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.

To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.

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Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.

With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.

The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.

The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.

These are the Premier League matches from Sundday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:

Chelsea 1.62 Newcastle United 1.74 (2-1)

Palace 0.98 v Spurs 1.02 (1-0)

West Ham 2.99 v Man U 2.63 (3-2)

Arsenal 1.09 v Liverpool 1.35 (2-2)

As you can see, in all four matches on Sunday, very fine Expected Goals margins in all of the games. The biggest difference was 0.36 at West Ham, 0.26 at Arsenal, 0.12 at Chelsea and 0.04 at Palace.

What the Expected Goals stats make clear, is that all of these four Premier League matches could have had ended in any of three ways (home win, draw, away win) and nobody would have been surprised. Based on number/quality of chances created.

Take Stamford Bridge for example…

The Expected Goals stats show the very real story of the match.

Newcastle United actually edging it! Newcastle an Expected Goals stat of 1.74, Chelsea 1.62.

It was desperately disappointing to lose on Sunday of course, not least because we played well in many respects. Chelsea scored two very good goals from their perspective but poor defending by United on both. How many other clear chances did the home side have though? In reality, even the winning goal was from outside the box and Nick Pope should have saved it.

At the other end, as the away team especially, Newcastle United got into great positions plenty of times and just him alone, Alexander Isak could and should have had a hat-trick potentially. His header hitting James (who knew nothing about it) with the keeper beaten, Isk also rounding the keeper and then whilst deciding to score himself or set up a teammate to do so, ended up in that classic caught in two minds situation and somehow Newcastle failed to score.

This was a good performance at Chelsea and when else have Newcastle United shared so much possession (NUFC with 49%) at Stamford Bridge?

If you don’t believe/trust the Expected Goals stats, then consider another stat that I think now proves very helpful when judging how well you have played, especially when it comes to the threat at both ends. The touches by your players in the opposition box shows Chelsea with 32 and Newcastle 26, next to nothing in it.

It is more than frustrating to come away with no points BUT the reality for me is that on balance of play and chances, Newcastle United definitely deserved something.

Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1 – Sunday 27 October 2pm

(Stats via BBC Sport)

Goals:

Newcastle United:

Isak 32

Chelsea:

Jackson 18, Palmer 47

Possession was Newcastle 49% Chelsea 51%

Total shots were Newcastle 11 Chelsea 17

Shots on target were Newcastle 3 Chelsea 7

Corners were Newcastle 4 Chelsea 7

Touches in the box Newcastle 26 Chelsea 32

Newcastle United team v Chelsea:

Pope, Livramento, Schar, Burn, Hall (Kelly 89), Joelinton (Osula 89), Bruno, Tonali (Longstaff 68), Barnes (Willock 68), Isak, Almiron (Jacob Murphy 68)

UNUSED SUBS:

Ruddy, Krafth, Lewis Miley, Vlachodimos

(Match Report – We’ll get them back on Wednesday son – Read HERE)

((BBC Sport comments from ‘neutrals’ – Interesting on Newcastle United after Chelsea defeat – Read HERE)

(This is the time to back Eddie Howe and not sack him – Read HERE)

(This perfectly sums up the divide between Chelsea and Newcastle United – Read HERE)

(Chelsea 2 Newcastle 1 – Instant Newcastle United fan / writer reaction – Read HERE)

Newcastle United upcoming matches confirmed to end of January 2025:

Wednesday 30 October – Newcastle v Chelsea (7.45pm) Sky Sports+

Saturday 2 November – Newcastle v Arsenal (12.30pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 10 November – Forest v Newcastle (2pm) Sky Sports

Monday 25 November – Newcastle v West Ham (8pm) Sky Sports