La Liga Tips: Back Girona to prolong Sevilla's struggles in 5/1 treble | OneFootball

Spanish LaLiga

Michel's Girona have been improved of late in La Liga

Jamie Kemp takes a look across three weekend fixtures on MD20 in La Liga, leading with an underperforming Sevilla's trip to face Girona...

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Girona v Sevilla - Sat, 13:00

After a difficult start to the season, it seems like Girona are starting to find their feet and beginning to look up again. Following up their historically good season in 2023-24 after selling a raft of talent was always going to be a big challenge. But at last they look as if they're starting to perform within the parameters of what we can reasonably expect.

Girona have won their last two games in La Liga and kept a clean sheet in both, while on home soil, they remain one of the stronger sides in the division. Michel's side have lost just four of their last 24 league matches at Montilivi, and all of those have been against European-quality opposition: Villarreal, Barcelona, Real Sociedad and Real Madrid.

Going by their underlying data, Girona rank fifth in La Liga for xGD on home soil this season (+7.6), behind only the current top three in the division, and Real Betis. The Catalan side might not be the dominant force of attacking football on every terrain that they were last season, but in front of their own fans, they remain a side who consistently create more chances than they concede.

Meanwhile, Sevilla have won just one of their nine away matches in La Liga this season (D3 L5), while conceding more than two goals per game on average (19 conceded in nine games). Their xGD on the road ranks 13th in the division too. They are, at best, an average away team, both in their actual performance, as well as when we consult the underlying metrics.

The security of the Garcia Pimienta project at Sevilla continues to strain too. Beyond what the actual results say, the current project is short on positive indicators towards the future, which is going to take an increasing toll on confidence if they can't figure things out in the short term.

A Girona side who perform well at home should fancy themselves against an opponent who constantly feel one or two games away from a crisis. I'll take them to win and have the most corners, along with Sevilla seeing more cards.

Real Madrid v Las Palmas - Sun, 15:15

Just when we all thought it couldn't possibly happen again, Real Madrid were well and truly demolished in another Clasico. Their eventual three-goal defeat was bad enough, but were it not for Wojciech Szczęsny's red card early on in the second-half, Barcelona looked like they were on their way to a victory of epic proportions. Things could have easily been worse.

The good news for Real Madrid is they don't have to play Barcelona again for a while. Where Hansi Flick's side clearly have their number in a major way, the capital outfit don't have too much to worry about in returning to the day job of domestic football. Nobody has gotten close to giving them the nightmares that Flick's Barcelona have this season, and Sunday's game at home to Las Palmas should see Madrid revert to normality.

After a humiliating defeat to their rivals, one should always expect Real Madrid to come out with renewed enthusiasm when the league games roll around. Everyone will want to get the Super Cup result out of their system, and back on home soil against a side from the bottom end of La Liga, it's the chance for them to take their frustration out on an opponent that they have a huge talent disparity on. They'll know they can perform better than they did in midweek against Celta Vigo in the Copa del Rey too.

Real Madrid have averaged 2.7 goals per game across their last 15 home matches in La Liga (W13 D1 L1), while only conceding an average of 0.7 per game. Consider the fact that four of the 11 goals conceded in this run came in a single game against Barcelona, and it tells you that against anyone but their rivals, things have otherwise gone pretty smoothly.

Against a Las Palmas side who have improved under Diego Martinez, but whose underlying numbers point towards their results being pretty unsustainable (+3 GD, -5.7 xGD), I think we'll see Ancelotti's side exert their force here. And in terms of value, I'm intrigued by Fede Valverde to score anytime @ 7/2.

He's scored in four of his last eight for Real Madrid, including a screamer against Celta Vigo in midweek. Against defences sitting deep, he's always a threat from range.

Valencia v Real Sociedad - Sun, 20:00

Valencia are right in the midst of a relegation battle - a very serious one. The mere possibility that a club of their stature might have to play second division football in 2025-26 is difficult to even comprehend.

They've made a decent start to life under new boss Carlos Corberan, following up an undeserved defeat at home to Real Madrid with a solid display away at Sevilla last weekend. Were it not for an uncharacteristic mistake from goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili - palming in a fairly routine shot from distance late on - they would have had the Corberan era up and running.

Sunday's game at home to Real Sociedad promises to be a significant challenge. The visitors aren't exactly blowing people away with their football at the moment, but their defensive performance is pretty scary at the moment. Imanol Alguacil's side have kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight in La Liga.

Indeed, what you have in this match-up is a home team in a pretty desperate situation, who really need to start picking up victories from somewhere, up against one of the stingiest defensive sides in Europe this season (who don't score much themselves). Add in a boat load of nerves at Mestalla from an anxious fanbase and I can't see this one being an end-to-end thriller.

All in all, this looks like a game that'll be fought on ultra-fine margins. If there is to be a winner, I expect it'll likely be by just a single goal. But I'll stick with a scarcity of goals as the main prediction here.

Since the start of the 2021-22 campaign, this fixture has been short on scoring as a pretty firm trend. In their seven meetings in La Liga in this time, we've seen only eight goals scored in total, while both sides have scored in just one of those.

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