Opta analysis on destination of extra Champions League places – Ahead of midweek matches | OneFootball

The top four in the 2024/25 Premier League table will automatically qualify for next season’s Champions League, as we all know.

Then, as pretty much all of you know as well, there is the possibility of fifth place also getting a Champions League spot.

Last season was the first time two extra Champions League places were handed to the countries who saw their clubs collectively perform the best in European competitions.

If that had been in place previously, five of the six preceding seasons would have seen the Premier League winning a fifth spot, however, it was Serie A and the Bundesliga clubs who outperformed the English clubs, to each get an extra spot for the 2024/25 Champions League competition.

However, this current 2024/25 season, English clubs are collectively doing so much better than those from other countries, the Opta forecasting system currently sees it as a 97.9% chance, that fifth place this season in the Premier League, will get a Champions League place.

The 97.9% chance of five Premier League places for the Champions League for the 2025/26 season, due to how English clubs have performed so well in this season’s European competitions so far.

So the Opta prediction model sees it as almost a formality for England/Premier League to get one of the two extra Champions League places for next season (if things continue to head in the right direction for English clubs in European competitions this season), with Italy heavy favourites to get the other spot ahead of Spain.

The final round of Champions League Swiss League games are played tonight (all 18 CL matches kicking off at 8pm).

So don’t forget to cheer the ‘right’ teams on, as playing tonight are:

Aston Villa v Celtic

Girona v Arsenal

Man City v Club Brugge

PSV v Liverpool

Then on Thursday night it is the final league matches in the Europa League:

As you can see, a certain Newcastle United currently in fifth place and be the one set to benefit as things stand, just so long as English clubs this season collectively do their bit in Europe…