Wimbledon v Notts County Tips: Back the Wombles defence to gain a profit on Saturday | OneFootball

EFL League One & League Two

The Wombles have one foot at Wembley after a narrow first leg victory last Saturday

Alan Dudman landed a winning 5/1 first goalscorer bet in the Charlton and Wycombe match on Thursday and he rounds off his playoff tipping with two more selections for Saturday between Wimbledon and Notts County...

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Dons joint favourites for promotion after first leg

Wimbledon's excellent defence played out the perfect first-leg at Meadow Lane, and the Dons are in a great position now in a special seat rather like the cat that got the cream, as Alassana Jatta completely lost his head on 95 minutes with a wild two-footed lunge and the red card has ruled him out and perhaps curtailed County's hopes, as Jatta was the big goalscoring threat.

David McGoldrick has also been ruled out for the remainder of the play-offs after suffering an injury late in the first leg, so County have been dealt the cruellest of all blows.

The Dons are joint-favourites for promotion at 6/5 with Walsall with the Magpies out to 13/2.

Match Odds: Wimbledon 5/4, Notts County 23/10, the draw 11/5

Magpies manager Stuart Maynard must feel like he's trapped in some sort of vortex - as so often his team has chances, possession yet fail to convert. The first leg was a snapshot of their season really; winning the xG comfortably with 1.28 against Wimbledon's 0.36, 60% possession and three against one on the big chances created.

Despite the loss and the absence of two strikes, the manager said: "I am confident. Even though they have got the best defensive record in the league, you will not see another team open them up the way we opened them up in the first leg.

"We will prepare exactly the same as we prepared for the first leg."

Notts County have lost all three of their away games against AFC Wimbledon in all competitions, conceding at least two goals each time and the Dons are supreme in this fixture - as they have won six of their seven Football League meetings with the Magpies (L1), keeping four clean sheets in the process.

There's an argument to say the hosts should be odds-on here, so at 5/4.

Dons defence so mean, we can back a low-scorer again

We're bordering on nearly 1/2 for the Under 2.5 Goals, and it was priced at 13/2 on the Sportsbook on Friday morning, and it's thoroughly understandable as the Wombles have kept 22 clean sheets across their League Two games this season, including one in the first leg of this play-off tie.

The Dons have also conceded the fewest goals (35) and faced the fewest shots on target (132) of any side in the division in 2024-25 (inc. play-offs).

County are good at pulling defences out of position, but like so many games this term, Wimbledon keep their shape well and they got the added bonus of a first goal from Riley Harbottle - a real box-to-box midfielder, whose first task is protect and defend.

Crystal Palace loanee keeper Owen Goodman kept his 22nd clean sheet of the season for Wimbledon in the first game and was recently named in the League Two Team of the Season, his work with goalkeeping coach Ashley Bayes was praised by Jackson, and I used to interview Bayes at Orient some 15 years ago, and he was most splendid chap.

I've used the BTTS 'No' Bet a fair bit for the playoff games, and see no reason to deviate from the same here with the 'No' available to back at 20/23 on the Sportsbook.

That bet has landed with Wimbledon in six of their last seven matches and in the two fixtures this term it has landed twice - County won 1-0 at Meadow Lane and Jackson's men won 2-0 at Plough Lane.

On both of those, Wimbledon surrendered possession and had around 35% of the ball in the two fixtures.

Shots on target punt the way to go in Scorer markets

Harbottle's goal at Meadlow Lane was his first of the season and he's a massive 35/1 to Score First and Harbottle also led all players for most tackles (5, level with Myles Hippolyte), possession won (6) and duels won (12). It was just the second time a player hit those numbers in a League Two match this campaign after Timothée Dieng for Cheltenham Town vs Swindon Town in March and it shows how crucial his role is in the defensive cog.

Jodi Jones is the key man for the visitors - he earned a place in the Team Of The Season 2 months ago due to his astonishing 24 assists, and while he has added goals to his game this term (five), his assist numbers are way down with just two from his 21 matches this term.

The attacker hit the post too on Saturday and he's clearly the man to watch minus Jatta and McGoldrick and he's 4/1 for an Anytime Assist.

In the first leg, Notts County's Conor Grant recorded four shots on target, with only David McGoldrick managing more in a League Two game for the club this season (5 vs Accrington Stanley in September). In fact, Grant had 23.5% of his total shots on target during the whole of this campaign in the first leg.

Recommended bets

Back BTTS 'No' 0.5pt @ 20/23

Back Conor Grant 1+ Shot On Target 0.5pt @ 5/6

EFL and FA Cup Multiples P & L season including all antepost bets settled

2024-2025: +7.14pts *Advised to 0.5pt staked unless stated otherwise (excluding Walsall v Chesterfield tips)