Bayern Munich v Inter: Injury-hit Bayern to be frustrated | OneFootball

UEFA Champions League

Inter boss Simone Inzaghi can win the tactical battle with the less experienced Vincent Kompany

Bayern are desperate to play this season's Champions League final in their own stadium, but Kevin Hatchard isn't convinced they'll be able to overcome Italian champions Inter.

Bayern Munich v InterTuesday 08 April, 19:30

Bayern on course for title, but injuries hitting hard

Another weekend, another step closer to regaining the Bundesliga crown for Bayern Munich. The Bavarian behemoth made heavy weather of Friday night's 3-1 win at Augsburg, a game that was only wrapped up in the final moments against a side that played the final half-hour with ten men. Closest challengers Bayer Leverkusen won the following day, which means the gap between the top two is six points.

That victory at Augsburg came at a cost, as the talismanic Jamal Musiala damaged a hamstring and became the latest name on a long list of absentees. Centre-backs Dayot Upamecano and Hiroki Ito are unlikely to feature again this term (Ito has re-injured the foot that was damaged at the start of the season), rampaging left-back Alphonso Davies is out long-term, and rising midfield star Aleks Pavlovic has only just recovered from glandular fever.

The loss of Musiala is particularly damaging, as the 22-year-old is one of the few players in the starting XI who just cannot be replaced like-for-like. Thomas Müller, who will leave Bayern in the summer, is simply not as effective a player these days. Müller has been used sparingly this term, and has scored just five goals in his last 36 competitive matches.

At least Michael Olise and Harry Kane remain a big threat. Olise racked up his tenth Bundesliga assist of the season on Friday, as his wickedly curling cross teed up Kane for a diving header. Kane's goal was ultimately the winner, and he is on course to be the Bundesliga's top scorer in back-to-back seasons. He has also become the first English player to score ten goals or more in a single Champions League campaign.

Youngster Jonas Urbig continues to deputise for the injured Manuel Neuer in goal, and the 21-year-old has looked shaky from time to time. Even though he has been struggling with an Achilles tendon injury for months, Minjae Kim will have to play through the pain barrier, partnering Eric Dier at the heart of defence. Leon Goretzka was rested on Friday, but should return here.

Inter looking to recover from Parma slip

Under Simone Inzaghi, Inter are used to having to balance multiple competitions, and this season is no exception. They are in the semi-finals of the Coppa Italia, they absolutely believe they can win this competition, and they are top of Serie A. However, the Nerazzurri suffered a blow on Saturday, as they blew a 2-0 lead in a 2-2 draw at Parma.

Star striker Lautaro Martinez looked a bit rusty after his return from injury, while defender Benjamin Pavard stayed on the bench and Nicolo Barella didn't feature at all. Inzaghi - who was in the stands serving a suspension - played Kristjan Asllani as a holding midfielder, and he probably hooked Martinez too early. The loss of outstanding defender Alessandro Bastoni to injury at the break did them few favours.

That said, Inter are still top, and they have built a ten-match unbeaten streak in all competitions. In the Champions League they finished in the top eight in the league phase, and in the last 16 they beat Milan's conquerors Feyenoord home and away.

Remarkably, Inter have only conceded two goals in ten Champions League matches this season, and their only defeat was at Bayer Leverkusen, and that came courtesy of a very late winner.

Asllani is suspended, while striker Mehdi Taremi, midfielder Piotr Zielinski and influential wing-back Denzel Dumfries are all out injured. Bastoni is expected to shake off the issue that saw him taken off in Parma.

Injury-hit Bayern too short at evens

I fancy Inter to make the semis over two legs against a Bayern team that is without a clutch of key players. I back Inzaghi to win the tactical battle against Vincent Kompany, and it's worth bearing in mind that Bayern haven't always hit top gear in this competition, losing to Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord in the league phase. They also struggled to edge out Celtic in the playoff round, before a much more convincing display in the all-German clash with Bayer Leverkusen.

Without Neuer, Upamecano, Ito, Davies and Musiala, Bayern are significantly weakened, and I'd lay them here against an incredible well-organised Inter. The Italian champions haven't lost an away game in any competition since mid-February, and I can't get behind backing Bayern to win at evens.

Alternatively, you could just back Inter to qualify at 2.26. None of Bayern's injured key players are coming back in time for next week's second leg, and if Inter come away from the Allianz Arena undefeated, they should win the tie.

Sane form the bedrock of 7/2 treble

Inter are probably going to try to be defensively organised and hit on the counter, and that could lead to some of Bayern's players getting a few shots in. We can use that to our advantage in a 7/2 Bet Builder.

Leroy Sane has been in excellent form for Bayern of late, scoring three goals in the last five games and forcing an own goal on Friday in Augsburg. He has hit the target at least once in 13 of his last 23 games for club and country.

Michael Olise has hit the target in 13 of his last 25 competitive games for Bayern and France, he takes free-kicks, and he has scored 16 goals for club and country. Olise also draws a lot of fouls (2.5 per 90 in the Bundesliga), and that brings a Federico Dimarco foul into play. Dimarco commit one foul per 90 in Serie A, and one foul is all we need here.