Champions League qualification permutations: What each team needs for top five | OneFootball

The race for the final three Champions League qualification spots will go down to the wire on the final day of the Premier League season.

The top-five teams in the Premier League, plus the winner of the Europa League final between Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, will qualify directly.

Champions Liverpool and runners-up Arsenal have already booked their spot, as Manchester City, Newcastle United, Chelsea, Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest battle for the remaining places.

There is just one point separating those five teams heading into the final week, with City playing their game in hand at home to Bournemouth on Tuesday night.

The final day of the season should be a cracker with Nottingham Forest hosting Chelsea in a potential Champions League play-off.

Here’s what each club needs to get over the line.

3rd - Newcastle United

Points: 66

Goal difference: +22

Final fixture: Everton (H)

What they need: Defeat to Arsenal means there will be some nerves when Newcastle host Everton at St James’ Park - but they know a win will book a return to the Champions League for the second time in three years.

If Newcastle draw or lose, they could be overtaken by Manchester City, Aston Villa and one of Chelsea or Nottingham Forest, but three points will be enough given their goal difference is far superior to Villa’s.

4th - Chelsea

Points: 66

Goal difference: +20

Final fixture: Nottingham Forest (A)

What they need: Chelsea’s fate is also in their hands as they travel to a top-five contender at the City Ground. A win would be enough for Enzo Maresca’s side to finish in the top five while eliminating Forest.

A draw would leave Chelsea open to being knocked out of the top-five by Manchester City and Aston Villa. But a draw would be enough to qualify if Aston Villa fail to win and Newcastle lose.

If Chelsea lose, Nottingham Forest would go ahead of them and Chelsea would need two of the following: Aston Villa to lose at Manchester United, Manchester City lose at Fulham or Newcastle lose at home to Everton, and lose by three goals more.

5th - Aston Villa

Points: 66

Goal difference: +9

Final fixture: Manchester United (A)

What they need: Unai Emery’s side are the in-form team in the division and go to a Manchester United side who will be playing in the Europa League final on Wednesday night. Villa’s fate may not be in their hands on the final day, with Manchester City having the chance to go above them if they beat Bournemouth on Tuesday.

If that’s the case, Villa will need to win and hope one of Newcastle, Manchester City or Chelsea fail to pick up three points on the final day.

6th - Manchester City

Points: 65

Goal difference: +24

Final fixtures: Bournemouth (H), Fulham (A)

What they need: Four points should be enough given Villa’s goal difference. A victory in their game in hand against Bournemouth on Tuesday would make things much simpler for City, and would mean that a draw on the final day against Fulham would be enough to finish in the top-five. Or they could do it the other way around.

If City lose either game, their fate will not be in their hands. But they could still qualify on 68 points if Chelsea and Nottingham Forest draw on the final day.

7th - Nottingham Forest

Points: 65

Goal difference: +13

Final fixture: Chelsea (H)

What they need: To beat Chelsea, no other result will be good enough unless Manchester City lose both games and Manchester United beat Aston Villa.

If Forest win, they would still need one other result to go their way, so Newcastle failing to beat Everton, or Aston Villa failing to beat Manchester United, or Manchester City failing to win either of their remaining two.