Guardiola’s City in Transition: Can They Recover Their Former Dominance | OneFootball

Manchester City’s Transition: A Side in Flux Searching for Answers

Manchester City’s struggles have been evident for some time, but their latest defeat to Liverpool offers a stark reminder of how far they have fallen. The 2-0 loss at the Etihad Stadium leaves them 20 points adrift of the Premier League leaders—the furthest they have been from the summit at the end of a matchday since July 2020, when they trailed Liverpool by 21 points.

That season marked the lowest ebb of Pep Guardiola’s tenure, a campaign in which City’s defensive instability left them vulnerable to counter-attacks. Despite finishing 18 points behind Liverpool, they were still an attacking powerhouse, scoring 102 goals and boasting the league’s best defensive record. “Oh, how they must yearn for those flaws now.”

In the years that followed, City rebounded spectacularly, securing four consecutive league titles. But something has shifted. Since the end of October, they have lost 14 of their 27 matches across all competitions—a run that raises serious questions about their current trajectory.

Photo IMAGO

Decline or Natural Evolution?

Some of those defeats have been calamitous—the chaotic 3-3 draw with Feyenoord stands out—but the loss to Liverpool has brought the scrutiny to new levels. It wasn’t just about the result; it was about how City looked—bereft of ideas, sluggish in transition, and unable to impose their once-unstoppable rhythm.

It’s a stark contrast to the City side that edged Liverpool to the title in 2019 by just 11 millimetres—John Stones’ goal-line clearance proving decisive in a season-defining 2-1 win. That year, Liverpool suffered their only league defeat at the Etihad but still pushed City to the wire. Guardiola’s men responded by winning their final 14 matches, sealing the title by a single point.

A similar scenario unfolded in 2022 when City needed a last-day comeback from 2-0 down against Aston Villa to snatch the title. That season, their two encounters with Liverpool—both pulsating 2-2 draws—were widely hailed as the gold standard of Premier League football.

Photo: IMAGO

Those battles were fought by two relentless, unyielding sides at their peak. Fast forward to today, and Liverpool remain competitive under Arne Slot, but City suddenly appear vulnerable. Guardiola himself has acknowledged the shift:

The comment, made last month, was a telling admission. The dominant City of the past relied on experience, precision, and a near-perfect squad balance. That equilibrium has been disrupted.

A Squad in Transition

To address the growing cracks, City have embarked on a quiet, gradual rebuild. Against Liverpool, their starting XI was one of the youngest Guardiola has fielded in a league match since that fateful July 2020 season. “Savinho and (Jeremy) Doku and all the young players—except Kevin (De Bruyne) and Nathan (Ake)—we were a so, so young team that will be the future of this club,” Guardiola noted post-match.

The influx of youth is evident. January signings Abdukodir Khusanov (20) and Nico Gonzalez (23) were both involved. Doku and Savinho—who at 22 and 20 should still be considered emerging talents—are already being viewed as senior figures. Josko Gvardiol, despite enduring a difficult season, has been one of City’s few bright sparks at just 23. Even Phil Foden and Erling Haaland, two of the biggest names in the squad, are only 24.

City’s recruitment strategy clearly suggests a long-term plan. But in the short term, there are glaring deficiencies. Without Haaland in Madrid last week, City’s attack fell flat, their build-up play crumbling as soon as they reached the final third. Against Liverpool, there were moments of promise—Doku’s 19 attempted take-ons, the most in the league this season, was an indication of his ability to unsettle defenders—but for all the direct running, City lacked the incision that once defined them.

Foden repeatedly surrendered possession, De Bruyne looked a shadow of his former self, and despite Savinho’s positive movement, his drives amounted to little. Guardiola’s frustration was clear:

“I don’t know how many times we arrived to the byline, for nine years it’s been the target for my team… but in the six-yard box, we did not create much.”

The City of old would have converted those half-chances into goals. Now, the fine margins that once worked in their favour are working against them.

Tactical Shift or Regression?

There’s been plenty of debate about whether City’s struggles stem from deeper tactical issues. Some argue that the league has evolved beyond Guardiola’s model. Opponents are now faster, more physical, and able to disrupt City’s patient, methodical play.

Yet, to suggest Guardiola’s philosophy is outdated would be premature. This is a team that won the treble last season, dominating both domestically and in Europe. Their style hasn’t suddenly become obsolete—it’s just not being executed as efficiently.

The key issue is personnel. Rodri’s absence has exposed the team’s lack of midfield balance, and ageing stars like De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan (who departed last summer) have left a creative void. Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva, usually reliable, have looked jaded. The rebuild is in motion, but transitions take time, and City are caught in an awkward in-between phase.

What’s next? The summer will be pivotal. The club will need to decide whether to persist with certain players or refresh the squad further. A successor to De Bruyne is needed, as is a long-term midfield partner for Rodri.

City have been through evolutions before. When they transitioned from the David Silva-Vincent Kompany-Sergio Aguero era, they did so seamlessly. This time, the challenge appears greater.

Can City Bounce Back?

Getting back to their peak will not be easy. The levels they reached in their treble-winning campaign may never be replicated—not just by City, but by any club.

But City’s issues aren’t irreversible. If Foden, Dias, and Bernardo rediscover form, if Rodri’s presence stabilises the midfield, and if the likes of Doku and Savinho develop a more clinical edge, then Guardiola’s side will be back in contention.

The summer will bring further change, but City’s ability to adapt has always been their biggest strength. Guardiola is not one to accept mediocrity, and as history has shown, City never stay down for long.

A year from now, we could be talking about another title charge. But for now, this is a club in transition—one that must navigate its way back to the summit before the gap to Liverpool and the rest grows too wide to close.