Jones Knows Notebook: Is this the beginning of the end for Man City's dominance? | OneFootball

English Premier League

Man City boss Pep Guardiola

Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - saw more worrying signs in Manchester City's performance against Fulham and believes the time is now to start betting against them whilst they remain so strong across the markets...

Are Man City becoming a fading force?

Getting ahead of a curve. It's something anyone who aims to make money from sports betting should always be striving for.

Anticipating a situation or a trend occurring before it hits the market can be a golden highway to profit if timed right and executed with smart decision making when it comes to staking.

Well, I think I've spotted one.

Manchester City's grip on English football is loosening.

They remain unbeaten this season after their 3-2 win over Fulham on Saturday but this isn't the machine-like Manchester City.

There are flaws developing to an extent that if this level of performance continues in the Premier League then there will be huge value to be had in taking them on at short prices in the next few months such is the way this team dominate the betting markets.

It's usually a stress-free and business-like ambience when City play football.

Strangle possession. Pass the opposition to death. Score via some slick passing. Give little away. Repeat in the next game.

City are of course unbeaten in 30 Premier League games and have only suffered one league defeat in their last 47.

But things are changing. Those runs will soon be coming to an end when results catch up with the performances that are waning.

And even though those results haven't been affected yet, with such fine margins on show in their last three home games, City quite feasibly could be on a three-game home losing run such was the tight nature of games against Brentford, Arsenal and Fulham.

For starters they have now trailed in all four of the Premier League home games this season and have conceded at least one goal in 16 of their last 20 league games at the Etihad Stadium.

Fulham still won't quite believe they left pointless on Saturday based on the chances they created. It was the highest expected goals figure (2.6) a team has posted at the Etihad in the Premier League in almost three years as Marco Silva's team found it bewilderingly easy to play through City's press and cause big problems for an all at season defence that is already missing the presence of Rodri in front of them.

Brentford did the same earlier this season in a one-sided first half which was only the second time under Guardiola that City had conceded five or more shots on target in a first half of a Premier League home game.

There is a blueprint out there now of how to seriously trouble Pep Guardiola's side - and teams are implementing it without fear.

Should he stay or should he go?

The situation with Guardiola's contract isn't helping matters either.

He is being very vague about where and what his future lies with his City contract up at the end of this season. From a player's perspective, how can you fully buy into Guardiola's calls to show peak mentality and intensity towards a common goal of winning an unprecedented fifth straight title when the man himself isn't long-term committed to the club.

This is going to prove a problem in January too when/if City decide to explore the market. Attracting players to the club without the guarantee of Guardiola being the leader added to the off the field issues regarding the charges by the Premier League over 115 alleged breaches of the league's financial rules is going to prove tricky.

Arsenal ready to pounce with multiple trophy haul?

So, how do we profit from this potential drop in standards by City?

The obvious ploy would be a simple lay strategy over their next 10 games in the Premier League.

For example, they are as short as 1.32 to beat Wolves at Molineux when the Premier League returns after the international break.

Prices like that for a team potentially on the downgrade are begging to be laid and I'd be surprised if a 1pt lay staking plan across their next set of fixtures doesn't return a healthy profit.

There also remains value to my eyes in Arsenal to take advantage of this regression at City by backing them to win multiple trophies when looking at the Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup and Champions League - something I have already advised in my season preview but it remains a betting angle for those that haven't followed me in yet.

Man City's stranglehold on these trophies might not be as tight this season but the market hasn't factored that in with Guardiola's men favourites across the board for each competition.

Let's not forget, they didn't win any of the FA Cup, Carabao or Champions League last season.

You can get

The 2.72 for Arsenal to win the Premier League on the Betfair Exchange also feels like an attractive proposition too.

Once results catch up with City's lacklustre performances then that 2.72 will be a thing of the past.

Get ahead of that curve.

Check out more tips, previews and betting insight on Betting.Betfair.com

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