Lewis Jones on the Europa League Final: Back Rodrigo Bentancur to be carded at 7/4 | OneFootball

UEFA Europa League

Europa League final tips

Fresh from tipping a 2/1 winner at the weekend, Sky Sports' Lewis Jones - aka Jones Knows - in his latest Notebook takes a look at Wednesday's Europa League final and decides his best bet comes in the cards markets...

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It's very common for people within football to get carried away with overdramatising the outcomes of matches - but the Europa League final truly is huge.

For Spurs it would turn their worst ever Premier League season into arguably their greatest one. For Manchester United, the riches of Champions League qualification could make all the difference when it comes to rebuilding the club.

England will indeed have six spots in the Champions League next year, with one of United and Spurs guaranteed to qualify through winning the Europa League.

The winner of this year's Champions League final between Paris-Saint Germain and Inter Milan will earn close to £100m in prize money.

For comparison, Manchester United received just £3.9m in prize money for winning the FA Cup last summer. There will be some sweaty palms in the United boardroom on Wednesday night.

Europa League final could be awful to watch

All this tension and high stakes means a gruesome football match is probably going to play out. No risks are going to be taken in a safety-first approach from both teams and from a betting perspective in the outright market the draw must be a runner at 3.6 on the Betfair Exchange such is the jeopardy at play.

There could be more than a hint of desperation in the air from both teams and with the betting pointing to such an evenly matched game it's unlikely one team is going to run away with it. As punters we therefore need to find a way to exploit these angles.

And that is most certainly through the cards markets.

Zwayer a good ref for cards backers

Felix Zwayer has been given the refereeing gig by UEFA - it's a great appointment for lovers of backing cards.

This is his first European final but he's overseen some big like Arsenal's Champions League semi-final second leg at PSG where he gave six cards, which is very much in keeping with his UEFA club appearances because he's averaging 5.33 cards per game across his European club assignments. And if we look at his last 24 games across the UEFA club competitions, he's given at least five cards in 20 of those 24 matches and six cards or more in 18 of those 24.

It's just such a shame the outright cards markets are across the likelihood of cards. Over 4.5 cards is as short as 4/7 with the Betfair Sportsbook meaning the traditional cards lines offer little value.

Play your cards right with Bentancur

There is a great bet to be had in the player cards market though where Rodrigo Bentancur stands out at 7/4 on the Sportsbook.

The Uruguayan is exactly the type of character to get emotionally charged in this kind of environment. Since the start of last season in the Premier League, he has been carded 15 times which means he's working at a per 90 yellow card ratio of 0.52. This is a massive figure.

No player to have played more than 2,000 minutes in the Premier League has a higher figure. His bookings record for Uruguay is exceptional as he's been carded in five of his last seven competitive starts for his country. Bentancur knows the dark arts.

There's a good chance Bentancur will be patrolling down the right of the Spurs midfield with Yves Bissouma likely to sit in front of the back four. This is an extra bonus for those backing his card prices as the Manchester United left side possesses two yellow card drawing merchants in Patrick Dorgu and Alejandro Garnacho. That pair have drawn 38 cards between them since the start of last season.

Bentancur was booked away in AZ Alkmar and away in Frankfurt for Spurs during this Europa League run and he looks set for another card being flashed his way. His price to be carded at 7/4 is the best bet you'll find across all the markets for this final.