Liverpool v Newcastle EFL Cup Final: Cards can bank 9/1 Wembley profits

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·14 mars 2025

Liverpool v Newcastle EFL Cup Final: Cards can bank 9/1 Wembley profits

EFL Cup

Arne Slot will be hoping to land his first silverware with Liverpool

Vidéos OneFootball

Dave Tindall is looking to the side markets when Liverpool take on Newcastle in the EFL Cup final on Sunday...

Liverpool v Newcastle

Holders looking to bounce back

Liverpool boss Arne Slot talked about his team having 'three Cup finals' ahead of last weekend's Premier League game with Southampton.

It seemed a bit of a stretch to tag the first of those with such a label but the Reds duly saw off the struggling Saints, overcoming a half-time deficit to run out 3-1 winners and end the weekend 15 points clear at the top of the Premier League. One down, two to go.

But the second 'final' ended in defeat. Despite holding a narrow lead against PSG from the first leg in Paris, Liverpool were dumped out on penalties after losing the return 1-0 at Anfield. It was a high-quality game although the visitors were the better team over the two matches. Two down, one good, one bad.

The last game of the trilogy is an actual final. And it's one that the Merseysiders are expected to win having taken four points off Newcastle this season, including a convincing 2-0 victory at Anfield at the end of February.

Liverpool head to Wembley again as holders. Indeed, victory would give them their third EFL Cup triumph in the last four years after those wins against Chelsea in both 2022 and 2024.

Newcastle hoping to end lengthy wait

Liverpool have lifted this trophy a record 10 times, that run starting in 1981 when they won it four years on the spin.

The best Newcastle can offer in the history of this tournament is that they were beaten finalists in 1976 (1-2 v Man City) and 2023 (0-2 v Man Utd).

As everyone in Newcastle knows, the wait for silverware has been bordering on ridiculous for a club of their size and stature. Their last major domestic trophy? The 1955 FA Cup.

With Anthony Gordon suspended and injuries to Sven Botman and Lewis Hall depriving them of key men, it seemed that the fates were conspiring against the Magpies once more.

But they quietly and efficiently won 1-0 at West Ham on Monday night to give themselves a pre-final boost and watching Liverpool go 120 minutes against PSG and losing Trent Alexander-Arnold to injury the next night might just have given Eddie Howe's team a belief that some cards are falling in their favour after all.

Reds have history on their side

Older Liverpool fans will recall the 3-0 win over Newcastle in the 1974 FA Cup final - "Goals pay the rent and Keegan does his share," roared David Coleman - and recent history tilts heavily towards the Reds too.

They're unbeaten in their last 17 meetings with Newcastle, winning 12 and drawing five.

And, as some veteran Toon Army fans might be able to tell you, the Magpies have lost their last nine matches at Wembley. It's something of a bogey ground.

For this one, Liverpool are 8/13 to win, with Newcastle 15/4 and The Draw 16/5.

To lift the trophy, it's 1/4 Liverpool and 5/2 Newcastle.

I don't have a strong take in the match market. Liverpool deserve to be favourites but Newcastle can cause them problems. Making the final a couple of years ago will have been useful experience.

To be honest, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Liverpool are taking spot-kicks again. They're 11/1 to win on penalties while it's 13/1 that Newcastle prevail in a shootout.

So to some bets...

Going Unders on goals could be smart

Liverpool have struggled to score goals at Wembley in recent years and that's a huge understatement.

They played Chelsea in both the EFL and FA Cup finals of 2022 and again in last year's EFL Cup final. The score after 90 minutes in each game: 0-0!

Two successful penalty shootouts and a late, late Virgil van Dijk header late in extra-time sent Liverpool fans delirious after all three but they were all tense and frustrating contests.

Not that they were borefests by any means and there were moments in those games where it seemed freakish that shots hadn't found the net.

But with that in mind - and, if you like, you can add in all three of Slot's final experiences with Feyenoord witnessing just a single goal - the 11/8 for Under 2.5 Goals makes appeal.

There are two of the league's elite forwards on show but arguably they're not in peak moments.

Alexander Isak has registered blanks in five of his last seven outings and, after missing the game at Anfield with a knock, didn't look sharp at West Ham.

Mo Salah's only goals in his last four games were from the penalty spot and his touch has been just a little off. He's having a sensational season but Wembley isn't his ground: the Egyptian has scored just once in seven appearances for Liverpool there.

Of course, both could make a mockery of that and if you want to back them anytime, it's 11/10 Salah and 15/8 Isak.

However, with little doubts over both, I'm still leaning towards Unders.

Cards an option with Brooks in the middle

John Brooks takes charge of his first cup final on Sunday and a delve into his history with these two shows that he sent off Van Dijk in the Premier League game at St James' Park last season - the game where Darwin Nunez came off the bench to steal victory for the 10 men of Liverpool.

He also reffed the first leg of Newcastle's semi-final against Arsenal in this competition, booking Gordon, Joelinton and Tino Livramento at the Emirates.

Overall, he's shown 71 yellow cards in just 13 matches (average 5.45) this season so isn't afraid to reach for his pocket.

Nailing it down and picking a likely candidate for a booking from each side, there's plenty of logic in going with Alexis Mac Allister and Joelinton.

As wonderful and as clever a footballer he is, Mac Allister just lacks for a bit of athleticism and can get caught in transition.

Wembley is a big old pitch and after appearing to run out of gas against PSG, he could tire late on. Mac Allister was booked in that game for stopping a PSG break - he isn't afraid to take a booking if outpaced - and was also carded in last year's final.

Joelinton is a bit of a walking yellow card. He's picked up seven bookings in his last 13 games, including two of the last three. Again, he'll commit the cynical foul if he has to.

Both South Americans to be cautioned pays 9/1 on the Bet Builder.