Sky Sports expert’s verdict on Newcastle United – Disagree with this? | OneFootball

The Sky Sports column ‘Jones Knows’ has given some interesting analysis and commentary on what is currently the position at Newcastle United.

The column makes predictions on what will happen at certain Premier League matches and also debates other matters/issues at clubs as well.

However, unlike the usual ex-pro predictions, that are usually simply based on how ‘big’ a club is and whether or not they won the previous game, this one has proper analysis and insight, not lazy assumptions.

The Sky Sports ‘Jones Knows’ column looks at the matches from a betting perspective and has been concentrating on this Newcastle United game at home to Nottingham Forest.

Lewis Jones (who is the Sky Sports expert behind the ‘Jones Knows’ column) has highlighted some major underlying factors that could / should have a big bearing on this Newcastle v Nottingham Forest game.

“Newcastle’s performance at Manchester City did stink of a team that have subconsciously got one eye already on their trip to Wembley in March.

“I’m always wary of a drop off from a team away from the elite that make a cup final.

“Just looking at the last six non big-six teams to make the EFL Cup final and their results between their win in the second leg and the final does show a correlation of form loss.

“In those 24 games, the clubs involved suffered 12 losses, five draws and just seven wins.

“Newcastle are included in that sample of clubs when they made the Carabao Cup final in 2023 – they were winless in their next three matches following their semi-final win, drawing to West Ham and Bournemouth and losing to Liverpool. They are vulnerable here.

“Nottingham Forest are on course to take 71 points this season and Opta have them with about a 65 per cent chance of finishing in the top five which would be enough for Champions League qualification.

“It’s easy to forget they won 3-1 here last season when battling relegation and they’re a much better side now.

“I like them to avoid defeat on the double chance at Evens with Sky Bet.

“Score prediction: Newcastle 1 Forest 2

“Jones Knows’ Best Bet: Nottingham Forest double chance (Evens with Sky Bet)”

Interesting analysis as always, from the Sky Sports expert.

Do you agree or disagree with this?

As always, there are all kinds of stats.

Stats that strengthen or weaken your argument.

For example, apart from that Forest win on Boxing Day 2023, Newcastle have won the other five matches against Forest since their promotion a few years ago.

The Sky Sports man also ‘forgetting’ to mention that two of those five wins over Forest have come this season, when Newcastle outclassed and battered them in the Premier League at the City Ground, it ended up 3-1 and could easily have been 5-1 or 6-1.

The Sky Sports expert ‘forgetting’ as well to mention that Forest’s last two away games have seen a 5-0 thrashing at Bournemouth and a 2-1 defeat at Fulham.

None of this of course means that I think this will be an easy win for Newcastle United BUT I do believe Eddie Howe’s side will get the victory.

That Forest victory on Boxing Day 2023 has also been twisted by pretty much everybody, including most Newcastle fans.

Reality is that it wasn’t Forest dominant, instead Newcastle were by far the best team in the first half, led 1-0 and then on stroke of half-time Miggy should have scored or passed for an easy teammate finish. Instead his pass was intercepted and Forest out of nowhere went down the other end and equalised. Then terrible defending gifted two more goals in the space of seven second half minutes, Wood and Forest taking full advantage. Yes, by the end Forest deserved to win, but it was terrible defensive moments that gifted it.

United deserved nothing last weekend but that first Man City goal triggered an easy home victory. I think that daft cheap goal was something United never recovered from and the second and third swiftly followed.

If Newcastle don’t do something similar today, then I very much think we can win.

Wednesday 26 February – Liverpool v Newcastle (8.15pm) TNT Sports

Sunday 2 March –  Newcastle v Brighton (1.45pm) FA Cup fifth round – ITV1

Monday 10 March – West Ham v Newcastle (8pm) Sky Sports

Saturday 16 March – Newcastle v Liverpool (4.30pm) Carabao Cup final – Sky Sports