Wolves v Everton: Cunha-less Wolves are vulnerable | OneFootball

English Premier League

David Moyes has transformed Everton's season

Wolves are out of the FA Cup and have work to do to make sure of staying in the Premier League. Without star man Matheus Cunha, Kevin Hatchard can't see them beating Everton this weekend...

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Wolves v EvertonSaturday 08 March, 20:00

Cunha tantrum the low point of cup exit

It's hard to imagine how last weekend's FA Cup fifth round tie at Bournemouth could have been worse for Wolves. They managed to go out despite having a penalty in the shootout to win it (Matt Doherty pulled his spot-kick horribly wide), and in the extra time period the talismanic Matheus Cunha was sent off for striking Cherries left-back Milos Kerkez not once but twice.

That is the second time this season that Cunha has had a complete meltdown, and opposition players and fans will now target him at every opportunity, to try to inflame his temper. The Brazilian will now serve at least a three-match ban, with the possibility that it could be extended for a further game.

Vitor Pereira has made forward strides since replacing Gary O'Neil as coach, and Wolves do now have a five-point cushion in the race for survival. They have however won just four of their last 15 top-flight matches, and all of those victories featured a goal from Cunha. At Molineux, Wolves have lost three of their last four in the league, and if you go back further it's ten defeats in 14, so it's not exactly an intimidating fortress.

Despite the loss of Cunha, there is some good news on the personnel front. Mountainous defender Emmanuel Agbadou is back in training, and Rodrigo Gomes is also nearing full fitness after injury.

All hail the Moyesiah

It's an overused cliché in football that someone "knows the club", but in the case of David Moyes and Everton, it's absolutely true. The veteran Glaswegian has produced a sparkling run of form since replacing Sean Dyche, and frankly he has made the job Dyche did at Goodison Park look far worse.

Everton have won four and drawn three of their last seven Premier League games, and they are now an enormous 15 points clear of the relegation zone, which basically means they are safe from the drop. There's no way any of the hapless bottom three are making up that kind of gap between now and the end of the campaign, and Moyes can begin to plan the club's first season in their new stadium.

Everton have also been transformed in attack, with Moyes working his magic on hitherto underachieving players like Beto. The Toffees have scored 15 goals in their last seven league games at a rate of just over two per match, doubling their season tally in that spell. Beto has netted five of those goals, having previously scored just once in the league this term.

Our friends at Opta tell us that while Everton were generating 1.0 xG per game under Dyche this term, that figure has jumped to 1.5xG per match under Moyes, despite a lower shot count. That suggests that those shots are from far more effective locations, and Everton have scored twice or more in five of their last seven league outings.

Everton were already out of the FA Cup, so they had a weekend off, and took the chance to train in warm weather in the UAE. Wolves, however, played 120 minutes in a draining cup tie.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Armando Broja, Orel Mangala and Iliman Ndiaye are all expected to miss the game. Dwight McNeil remains a doubt, and he hasn't featured since the first week of December.

Everton can be backed with insurance

Everton are unbeaten in seven league games, they have had more rest than Wolves, and the hosts are without their most influential player. Therefore I'm happy to back the visitors Draw No Bet at 2.08 on the Betfair Exchange. Our bet only loses if Everton lose, and a draw sees our stake returned. It's also worth noting that Everton won the reverse fixture 4-0.

Despite Cunha absence, goals could be on the cards

Whenever a Premier League game has an Over 2.5 Goals bet priced at 2.36, that's worthy of investigation. The league average per game is well above 2.5, and Wolves' games in the top division have featured a league-high average of 3.44 goals. 20 of their 27 games in the league have seen an Over 2.5 Goals bet land.

Under Moyes, five of seven PL games have featured three goals or more, and that's enough for me to take the plunge here at a price that feels like value.

Now read the rest of our Premier League previews here!

Recommended bets

Back Everton Draw No Bet @ 2.08

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38