Barcelona v Inter: European football expert Kevin Hatchard with an 11/2 first leg bet | OneFootball

Watch Football...Only Bettor Champions League semi-finals special

Barcelona v InterWednesday 30 April, 20:00

Inter must arrest the slide to save their campaign

There have been times in the history of Inter when they have been seen as masters of their own downfall, a club that had become adept at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. After a miserable week, many of their detractors (and maybe some of their own fans) are wondering if that curse is striking again.

Back-to-back 1-0 defeats at Bologna and against Roma have seen the Nerazzurri slip from behind three points ahead of Serie A title rivals Napoli to being three points behind, and in-between those failures was a crushing 3-0 defeat against Milan in the Coppa Italia semi-finals. The Milan defeat was particularly concerning, as Inter seemed to lack the energy and the fight to turn the tie around once they went 2-0 down early in the second half.

Perceptions change quickly in football, and just a few weeks ago Inter coach Simone Inzaghi was being hailed as a master of rotation, but now all eyes are on him as he bids to save the campaign. The return to fitness of rampaging wing-back Denzel Dumfries is a huge boost, although the recent loss of versatile defender Benjamin Pavard could be a blow. The other major injury doubt is French forward Marcus Thuram, who could be the key to exposing Barcelona's high defensive line if he can return to full fitness.

Although Barca are favourites to win this tie (Inter are a hefty 2.74 to qualify), the Italian champions showed with their quarter-final win over Bayern that they can soak up pressure against a very attack-minded team and cause problems on the counter. That's exactly what they did in Munich, and they'll believe they can play some rope-a-dope at Montjuic too.

There is certainly justification for faith in Inter. They have conceded just five goals in the whole tournament, which is a phenomenal record across 12 matches. They kept clean sheets against Manchester City, RB Leipzig, Monaco and Arsenal, and at the other end they have the best attack in Serie A, and they have scored in all but one of their 12 UCL matches this term.

Barca a step closer to season for the ages

Spanish Super Cup - check. Copa del Rey - check.

Barcelona have two trophies in the bag, and both were won at the expense of their old foes Real Madrid. On Saturday in Sevilla, Barca led, went behind and then turned it back around to win a titanic tussle 3-2 after extra time, prompting a complete and utter meltdown from Los Merengues.

That stupendous showdown showed the good and the bad of this Barca team under Hansi Flick, a side that is so reminiscent of the all-conquering Bayern side he once coached. They back themselves to outscore anyone, but they will always give the opposition a chance to play. The recent 4-3 win over Celta Vigo in La Liga was a great example, as Barca went 3-1 down before coming back to win 4-3. Barca have only managed seven clean sheets across their last 22 home matches in all competitions.

The likely absence of star striker Robert Lewandowski is a blow, although in his absence it's worth considering that Ferran Torres scored in the cup final on Saturday, and has netted in six of his last 12 appearances. Raphinha is having an incredible campaign, with 12 goals and seven assists in the Champions League, as well as 24 goal involvements in La Liga. If Barca add the league and the Champions League to their haul, the Brazilian will surely be an even sronger favourite to win the Ballon d'or.

Raphinha the key to 11/2 treble

If Denzel Dumfries starts for Inter, then his battle down the Inter right with Raphinha will be one of the intriguing sub-plots. Dumfries has committed 2.7 fouls per 90 in Serie A this term, while Raphinha has been fouled twice or more in seven of his last ten starts in all competitions.

I'll also throw in the Inter GK (almost certainly Yann Sommer) to make four saves or more. Inter will try to soak up pressure, and while they tend to allow their opposition plenty of shots, the quality of those chances is usually pretty low. Sommer made six saves in the first leg against Bayern, and a further four in the second leg. He has made four saves or more in 14 of his 45 games this term, and at least three stops on 23 occasions. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect four saves against a team that will rain in shots from all angles. After all, Barca average around 19 shots per game in all competitions this season.

11/2 on the Bet Builder.