Bundesliga Tips: Wirtz can shine in top-two showdown | OneFootball

German Bundesliga

Xabi Alonso has never lost to Bayern Munich as a coach

The Bundesliga's best do battle on Saturday night, and Kevin Hatchard will be on the Tactical Feed commentary for Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich. He's previewed that game and two others.

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Leverkusen can keep the title race alive

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern MunichSaturday 15 February, 17:30Live on Sky Sports

Bayern Munich lost their long-held Bundesliga title to Bayer Leverkusen last season, contributing to their first trophyless season since 2012, but if the Bavarians win at the BayArena on Saturday night they will have pretty much snatched that famous bowl back with 12 matchdays of the season left. Vincent's Kompany's team has an eight-point advantage at the top, so victory would increase that gap to 11, and Opta tell us that no team in Bundesliga history has even blown the title with an eight-point lead.

By most metrics, Bayern are currently the league's best team. They have the best attack, the best defence, the highest xG figure for and by far the lowest xGA number. However, questions marks remain: Bayern won 2-1 at Celtic in the Champions League in midweek, but UCL defeats at Aston Villa, Barcelona and Feyenoord raised eyebrows, and Bayern still haven't beaten Bayer Leverkusen since Xabi Alonso took charge of Die Werkself.

Indeed, Leverkusen have twice been to the Allianz Arena this season and have twice achieved positive results. They clung on for dear life in a 1-1 draw in the league, but then won 1-0 in the DFB Pokal. Bayer are still in that competition, and are favourites to win it for the second season running.

Bayer have eclipsed Bayern in the Champions League (they finished sixth in the expanded league and qualified directly for the last 16), but in their title defence they have simply tossed away too many points, and tight games that went their way time and time again last term just aren't falling their way this time around. Recent draws at RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg aren't too bad in the grand scheme of things, but draws against the bottom two Holstein Kiel and Bochum were less forgivable.

That said, Bayer have had a free week to prepare for this game, and I expect them to avoid defeat. They have lost just one league match since the start of last season, and they seem to be able to produce their best when they face Bayern. We can back Bayer/Draw Double Chance and Florian Wirtz to have a shot on target at 7/5 on the Sportsbook's Bet Builder.

Wirtz has been arguably the best player in the league since the start of last season, and in that period he has delivered 20 goals and 20 assists in the Germn top flight. While he hasn't hit the target in his last two starts, he had done so at least once in nine straight starts before that. The 21-year-old has netted 15 goals in all competitions, including six in his last 13 appearances.

Guirassy to dominate derby

Bochum v Borussia DortmundSaturday 15 February, 14:30

You never quite know what you're going to get from Borussia Dortmund, and that doesn't just change from match to match, it alters from minute to minute. BVB's 3-0 Champions League victory at Sporting on Tuesday was a case in point - the Ruhr side looked second-best for the first hour, but then a towering header from Serhou Guirassy gave Dortmund the lead, and Sporting collapsed.

Guirassy set up a second for Pascal Gross, before Karim Adeyemi crowned a lively performance with a goal that effectively put Niko Kovac's team into the last 16. It's that individual quality that may make the difference this weekend, as Die Schwarzgelben visit their regional rivals Bochum.

With Schalke trapped in the second tier, this battle has partially filled the gap left by the loss of the Revierderby, but Bochum are in serious danger of joining S04 in the lower division. They have been in the bottom two pretty much all season, and while veteran coach Dieter Hecking has at least made them competitive, Bochum have the worst goal difference, the second-worst attack and the second-worst defence.

After Guirassy's powerful display against Sporting, I'll back him to find the net again here at 11/10. The former Stuttgart goal-getter has scored 19 times in all competitions this term, and he bagged a brace in the reverse fixture.

Eagles to win a shootout

Eintracht Frankfurt v Holstein KielSunday 16 February, 16:30Live on Sky Sports

While talk of a title charge was always fanciful - and forcefully played down by coach Dino Toppmöller - Eintracht Frankfurt are having an outstanding campaign, and it's one that could set them up for years to come. Star signing Omar Marmoush was sold for massive money to Manchester City, and the Eagles are still on course for Champions League qualification.

Some clubs would waste that kind of income, but sporting director Markus Krösche is one of the shrewdest operators in Europe, and there is more than enough young talent to mitigate Marmoush's loss. Hugo Ekitike is scoring freely, Hugo Larsson in an excellent central midfielder and Arthur Theate has proven to be an outstanding recruit in defence.

Frankfurt have won 11 of their 21 games in the league, and I expect them to win against against relegation-threatened Holstein Kiel. The Storks are really adventurous in attack, but they are hopeless defensively, and keeper Timon Weiner simply isn't up to the job at this level. According to the post-shot xG differential data, Weiner is the worst custodian in the league, and it's not even close.

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